Legion Again

A) exactly what I expected for true Fri from these preview B). It's early deadline so anywhere.from 50-60 😛

Guys no more marvel vs DC stuff please. Comparing DC to DC is friendlier *and* more relevant.

Now I want to go down the Batman Returns stats hole 😂

Well that’ll b another “fun” weekend thread because 150m in 2024/2025 for a sequel to a well-received new version is even more disappointing than 120 in 2022 for a reboot first entry coming off batfleck 👀

Also this lol. Batman 2 and 3 can make a play at a normal-for-Batman (I.e. incredibly strong) opening. Although that would be like 250M+, so not really sure.

Tl;dr It is okay for people to have high expectations and be disappointed relatively more often, rather than striving to have low expectations and be disappointed less often. That’s a personal choice, not an attack on a movie

Really just going around in circles now. I want to summarize my thoughts concisely and move on: 1) It’s seemed (to me and others) for quite some time that this would likely do 110-140ish range. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that it is meeting reasonable expectations and is therefore not a disappointment. 2) Those expectations came from a place of “Batman’s ow historically are huge, but reboot fatigue, brand damage, shifting marketplace popularity etc etc will be a drag on it and lead to a weak-for-Batman OW.” So even if hitting that range isn’t a surprise it does serve to confirm that those factors are really at play, and they did lead to a low-for-Batman OW. So I totally understand and respect the perspective that meeting reasonable near-term expectations is disappointing in the historical view (just like say FFH). Even if we reach strong factual agreement (which I think we are able to — and largely have) people can keep talking past each other and disagreeing about the best philosophical/emotional framework for interpreting those facts. I don’t want to get on people’s case for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are just what I expected so I’m not disappointed at all.” But I also don’t want to see people criticized for saying “these historically low for Batman numbers are disappointing to me even though there were good reasons to expect them.” Live and let live.

Well, I think the relationship between expectations and disappointment is a lot more complicated than that. You update your expectations as you get new info. Sometime your near release expectations are below a more zoomed out historical view, sometimes they are above it. For instance, consider something which some years out you might have expected 220M for but when you get close it looks more like it will do 150M. Then it does 160M. We can say that this actually beat expectations (focusing on near term ones) or that it fell far short of them (focusing on farther out ones). You’re probably left with a sense of “this hit my expectations but I was expecting it to do disappointing.”

SMH OW was disappointing though. TASM, TASM, SMH, FFH were all pretty blah for the character.

Yes. When non-IP have really strong BO results I say that they had really strong BO results. You don’t recall me saying this much because… nonIP very rarely has really strong BO results! I’m not saying that at all. But if nonIP success looks like “80M on a small budget” then it’s pretty obvious why studios and big stars aren’t excited to chase that dragon and would rather gamble of dormant IP. Can’t get a huge ROI with a large talent spend… and even when you do make 100M net revenue off 20! net costs it’s a great ROI but all involved would rather have spent that time making 300M net revenue off 200M net cost for a far worse ROI. You don’t just need some proven original hits, you need some real name recognition, buzz, and marketability from them. This is definitely the best way to pursue original ideas at the moment but there just aren’t enough directors like that around for it to generate much annual supply, not to mention that sometimes the directors want to do other things.

I mean, this is exactly the basis of the disappointment, right? So I don’t see why what you’re saying should stop people from being disappointed with the weekend!

It’s well short of excel’s joke expectations but probably also a little shy of their serious expectations.

The only one of these that looks todo over 100M is doing so via director as IP. Kind of proves their point.

Alright, I’m caught up now. Sorry for the spam, I’ve just blocked Nash for everyone’s sake. It is unfortunate as they make make reasonable points fairly off, but… Also lemme see if I can merge those posts.

That MoS opening is huge fwiw. 12th biggest ever. People seem to love making comparisons to nominal ow grosses of aughts and early 10s movies when they want to make a 2020s ow look better than it is. Doesn’t really work imo, just looks silly. This has absolutely no factual basis, so keep up the good work I guess. This is absolutely correct but it seems completely incompatible with saying that I am downplaying the movie 🤣 This actually does not make any sense. Bias means being off in a consistent direction. If you make reasonable forecasts that are born out by reality+don’t give overly rosy commentary of them, that is just called… being objective? Man, the version of me that lives in your head rent free sounds very wrong about this movie. You are definitely correct to be dunking on them. Might want to pay a little more attention to whether they’re related to the version of me that lives in reality though.

I mean, it’s also pretty common to have movies overperform. Those threads look different!

It is kind of wild how SC, NWH, now Batman, and soon DS2 have had so much runway. Not going to see much of that anymore once MDW hits.

Nah, I’m just not cheerleading for it. My expectations were for it to do fairly weak for a Batman movie, which is still decently big because Batman is a very high tier BO franchise. It is doing exactly that. Not great, not terrible, as the saying goes.

Saved by the 7/70 line once again, eh old chap?

Well, that is a mathematical fact I will not dispute. But it seems like you’re trying to imply something from it which does not actually follow.

Guys, you learn nothing from comparing 2022 openings to the 2020-2021 stuff. They were a combination of severely impacted and low wattage. I am not going to be gentle with DS2 if it misses 160 — it is okay to treat movies with real expectations instead of kid gloves

I mean let’s wait for fri here. It’s not going to be full on disaster but missing 140 with this atp is mid at best considering the franchise ow history.

Decent midrange number for the Batman. Anyone who says that people saying so doesn’t know box office: A) doesn’t know box office B ) is being unnecessarily condescending which is not a good look to pair with being wrong on the initial claim 😬

It’s not like this is ambiguous either, the posts are all right there if you want to read what people thought as final predictions instead of referencing what you imagined they thought 😂

Holy fuck man. For real this is infuriatingly ignorant and misleading. The actual forecast were low 20s. It’s low 20s. It was extremely on point and now you’re trying to spin it as a miss because you had misunderstanding of what was predicted (or are deliberately referencing the lowest possible nums thrown around to make it look better for Batman)??? Just stop.