Legion Again

Is this weighted vs NWH final atp or t-5 atp?

Part of why I don't want to make much of a fi prediction is that I wouldn't have predicted the (relatively) gentle start in the first place.

Sheet updated. A brutal weekend for openers, I will probably be middle of the pack rather than a total disaster again. Basically @CJohn and @AN9815 jockeying for 1st

Yeah, Russia went in with the kid gloves here and it’s not getting the job done. Question is cut your losses or double down — could go either way I think.

Speaking of random monthly record trivia, seems that The Avengers will take the longest standing monthly record from Passion of the Christ as long as it withstands DS2.

I think you’ve got the right general vicinity. Seems like monthly records were set by: Planet of the Apes July 2001 with 68M Rush Hour 2 Aug 2001 with 67M Monsters Inc Nov 2001 with 62M HP1 Nov 2001 with 90M Ocean’s 11 Dec 2001 with 38M TLOTRTFOTR Dec 2001 with 47M (this is 4 monthly record breakers in less than a 7 week span wtffffff) Ice Age Mar 2002 with 46M Scorpion King April 2002 with 36M Spider-man May 2002 with 114M Austin Powers Goldmember July 2002 with 73M Goldmember was July 26th vs Apes 27th, so we can say 10 new monthly records in a one year (365 day) window

Calling all trivia diehards: What 12 month windows contain the most monthly OW record breakers?

Rather underwhelming for spider-man, may need that expansion for 800 after all 👀

3 MCU movies this year. 3 shots at new monthly ow record. Though DS2 is the only one that doesn’t really matter since it’s an “I used the mcu to destroy the mcu” situation. When BP2 takes out Catching fire it will be 5/12. Thor vs TLK is the shot at the 6th Infinity month to perfectly balance the calendar.

Well, 666 kills my derby 🤣

2.6, vs maybe 1.95ish 👀

The base case is like a 75%+ Sat jump for a ~4x IM

5 down, 3 to go

6 more days to 1.85, I guess 1.9 will happen eventually.

Few hours. Studios will report some dailies first (disseminated via the numbers and Twitter)

Probably not, but not too much of an ask either.

Yeah, BOP is right to note that they beat all other public forecasts (though I think BOR is also pretty decent, they don't do long range and get the wknd forecasts up late Th). And that they're working with an earlier deadline than e.g. derby players, which is a natural handicap. I think for holdovers, small openers, and medium openers they operate at near practical maximum efficiency. For big openers, this thread and our extrapolations from it have been doing even better, comparing same point in time to same point in time. I'm not too sympathetic to the "2021 is a mulligan" argument since: 1)To the extent that 2021 was extra difficult, we are comparing predictions for 2021 movies to other predictions for 2021 movies, so even playing field. 2) 2021 mostly followed normal trends anyway for big movies, which mostly didn't release until more normalcy in 2H 2021. Pandemic-making-everything-sui-generis-and-incomparable ended up a little overblown considering how good our results were despite that. It will be interesting to see if we continue to outperform in 2022 -- if so (and I expect so, full disclosure), I think putting a little weight here is a seriously reasonable suggestion 😛 @Shawn, so I'm not talking behind your back ;)

Through the end of week 10, NWH is 53.2% of the market since it opened, with a lead of just 93M on the rest. This week it will earn ~ 7M and the rest of the market ~ 70M, so it will fall on Batman OD for sure after 77 days. Let's see if Batman can go 28+ -- seems like a good chance with the way March looks.

Like I said, a strong Saturday ow bodies well for Sat this weekend. On the same calendar Sonic spun its 6.36 Fri into a 26.2 wknd (4.1x) off a 88% Sat increase. Uncharted also seems to be playing fairly kid/family so far, so I would expect at least 6 10 6.5 from 6

Pretty solid bump there, big Q is how much the partial holiday week damps down the Sat bump. OW had a big Sat bump though. Thinking 23-26ish.

This is my main complaint with you guys tbh 😛 But at least that’s explicit, not sure if I’d heard that before. Although, that does make the Batman range extra 🤔

Man, they just gave a very high range. They are *counting on* those, not failing t account for them!

Going to have a big impact on the BO of Ukraine, yeah. Maybe Russia, Poland, other bordering countries slightly? UK probably not.

Been thinking about this for a while — I know that presentation real estate isn’t free, but I think a “final tickets sold” column could be pretty useful @Porthos. Makes it much easier to tell at a glance how many were sold from the present day to the end compared to how many have been sold recently, and what the implications will be if it runs at X% pace.

😎