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Joyous Legion

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Posts posted by Joyous Legion

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

    Deep Water going to streaming is depressing. Have fun with Kingsman 8 and Venom 10, I guess

     

    How bad is the Nightmare Alley tracking? I assume that is another bomb

    DW always looked like a streamer, guess they could have tried hybrid if they wanted to support theaters but it would do like 5M full run vs 8M if exclusive or some shit.   
     

    Kingman 3 looks floptacular, dead franchise. Don’t think Venom goes past 5.
     

    NA certainly looks destined to bomb from the trailer and discussion around it, haven’t checked PS or anything. 

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

    Wow! Even I have to say that based on what our trackers are seeing, Deadline is really low. Don’t they have experts who can see the same data? Maybe they’re predicting that the movie will be extremely presales heavy due to the pandemic. I think some like baumer think the same thing. We’ll just have to wait and see. Will be exciting to see how things develop. 

    Deadline literally does not even try to release accurate predictions. It’s simply not a goal to begin with for them. There is a reason I have to repeat over and over that deadline/official tracking isn’t worth the pixels its displayed on.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

    If Sacto follows TROS final week pattern, the TROS comp should end up at 55ish, from which I would expect an actual of 48ish.   
     

    If it follows AEG final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 66ish, from which I would expect an actual of 58ish.   

    If it follows IW final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 58ish, from which I’d expect an actual of 51ish.    
     

    AEG final week was absolutely nutter butters, but I would probably target +-50 based purely off Sacto voodoo magic ;) 

      
     

    I built my sheet out a little more, will probably try to add Denver, Philly, and Kantmiss tristate blend over next day or two.

    On  a more serious note — I am pretty wary about all of these. NWH’s last few days have been at a ridiculous ratio and it’s not at all obvious that ramping up like any of these comps is even possible. Monday should give us a much better sense.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    If Sacto follows TROS final week pattern, the TROS comp should end up at 55ish, from which I would expect an actual of 48ish.   
     

    If it follows AEG final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 66ish, from which I would expect an actual of 58ish.   

    If it follows IW final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 58ish, from which I’d expect an actual of 51ish.    
     

    AEG final week was absolutely nutter butters, but I would probably target +-50 based purely off Sacto voodoo magic ;) 

      
     

    I built my sheet out a little more, will probably try to add Denver, Philly, and Kantmiss tristate blend over next day or two.

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

     

    It could be a lot more nutty, but the Resistance to Crappy Seats is real.  Like, really real.  Right now, outside of SMG which added three shows relatively late in the pre-sale run, the vast majority of these sales are going to the "B-tier" and even "C-tier" theaters locally, as folks are just refusing to buy close-to-the-screen and many of the aisle seats at the better theaters/showtimes (outside of the PLF screenings, that is — that seems to be premium enough to entice people to purchase the crappy seats.  Problem there is, they're already approaching saturation as well).  

     

    The slight wrinkle here is many, though not all, of the best theaters in town have already  set aside their best screens for NWH.  So when/if they continue to add screens, it'll be at the smaller auditoriums.  Only Regal Delta Shores and perhaps Century DoCo might see some beefy expansion in the coming days.  Not that there won't be expansion at some of the other heavy hitters.  Just that we're already approaching diminishing returns with them.  Thus, for now, it's the other theaters in the region picking up the slack.  And then some.

    A very interesting wrinkle for sure. If final week is when people start hovering up B tier seats, we’ll get a super mega nutty preview and probably quite a low Fri/Th. If the resistance remains until the end, then previews will be merely super nutty and Fri/Th should be higher.

    • Like 1

    Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Product Driven Legion

    4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

    Could you imagine the meltdowns if that Critics Choice score ends up being legit? One of the most anticipated movies of the year (and arguably all time because of ita novel concept) turning out to be a mess? Eternals getting a rotten tomato broke us Marvel fans as is; could you imagine what would happen if our big event for the year does the same thing?

    I seriously don’t think many people care about the critics score on this one. People are sort of expecting/looking for a mess.   
     

    If the cinemascore was a B that would be armageddon.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

    Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

      Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
    TOTALS 13 223 20,372 40,022 50.90%

     

    Total Seats Sold Today: 721

     

    Comp

    2.683x of Black Widow's Final Count (35.41M)

    3.889x of Venom 2's Final Count (45.11M)

     

    Adjusted Comp

    1.630x of Star Wars: TROS T-4 (65.2M)

     

    The end is near mah bois.

    Yesterday’s comp implies TROS t-5 15104, today comp implies TROS t-4 12498. I assume TROS didn’t have 2500 cancellations on it’s Sun so some arithmetic typo somewhere seems likely 😛 

    Australian Box Office | ....

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:


    Refresh my memory (and I could be wrong) but wasn’t it something like DOM to Australia ratio was 10 to 1? Obviously it’s not full proof math but I seem to remember it was always pretty close. 

    Works better for OW iirc because of different preview % for OD. Especially with the 3PM Dom.

    • Like 1
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