Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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Just now, Plain Old Tele said:
You guys are insufferable. Do you not understand the concept of different opinions? That’s literally all we have to go on right now.
Of course we understand the concept of different opinions, but “how much will NWH open to” is not some purely subjective personal preference like “what is your favorite number.” There are facts and historical data that have pretty significant bearing on what the plausible range of numbers is.
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Ultimately though, I must thank the curmudgeons. It’s going to make it much more satisfying when it pulls fairly predictable numbers that they are way past certain predictions, compared to a world where everybody agreed it was doing 170-220 or so and then it did.
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5 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:
That fans can get super amped up and wildly over-predict.Yeah, I still remember those silly overpredictions of IW outopening TFA and Endgame getting 300. What a blunder by the BoT marvel hive mind 🙄
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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
FYI OD of FFH which released 9 weeks after end game was < 40illion !!!! here previews are almost at that number.
I can’t believe you’re still spinning this bullshit keyser. We all remember it opened on Tuesday, what do you think that repeating this completing irrelevant factoid over and over is supposed to show!
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4 hours ago, Nerfy said:
I just saw the bolded number and thought that you were predicting that for OW .
It's a good OW prediction
(OWeek)
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5 minutes ago, baumer said:
Date Rank Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Jul 6, 2017 P $15,400,000 3,450 $4,464 $15,400,000 Jul 7, 2017 1 $50,780,982 4,348 $11,679 $50,780,982 1 Jul 8, 2017 1 $37,045,244 -27% 4,348 $8,520 $87,826,226 2 Jul 9, 2017 1 $29,201,277 -21% 4,348 $6,716 $117,027,503 3 What is your point supposed to be here?
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With V2 at 90 just 135 here would be depressingly weak. Luckily don't have to worry about such things.
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I'll just drop this again if anybody wants a quick reference:
Movie Th TFri Sat Sun prev % Fri/Th Sat/Fri Sun/Sat true IM IM TFA $54,000,000 $65,119,282 $68,294,204 $60,553,189 0.4533 1.2059 1.0488 0.8867 2.9786 4.5920 RO $29,000,000 $42,094,394 $46,308,115 $37,679,172 0.4079 1.4515 1.1001 0.8137 2.9952 5.3476 TLJ $45,000,000 $59,684,491 $63,993,205 $51,331,888 0.4299 1.3263 1.0722 0.8021 2.9322 4.8891 TROS $40,000,000 $49,615,288 $47,467,565 $40,301,011 0.4464 1.2404 0.9567 0.8490 2.7690 4.4346 Geomean $40,974,727 $53,376,823 $55,672,784 $46,610,674 0.4340 1.3027 1.0430 0.8372 2.9174 4.8035 weighted(5:3:1:2) $42,448,584 $54,590,792 $57,157,654 $48,671,360 0.4371 1.2860 1.0470 0.8515 2.9396 4.7837 NWH 36000000 60000000 64800000 55080000 0.3750 1.6667 1.0800 0.8500 2.9980 5.9967 The tfa Th is an est rather than the initially reported fig, just ignore that bit if you prefer.
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BO Boomers vs Zoomers: the contest
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So what is the spoiler policy here anyway? Talking about comic source material untagged is free game in CBM threads afaik, not sure what the deal was for the GoT thread.
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3 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:
There are certain things from the books that I absolutely have no issues with them changing because they just won't fly in 2020s visual media
Think I know what you’re talking about here and agree completely.
4 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:Of course there's some super cringe male power fantasy as well that creeps in, but the rumors I've seen a little of don't deal with changing that stuff
Think I know what you’re talking about here as well and disagree with the characterization.
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15 minutes ago, lab276 said:
Yeah, but that’s not realistic either, just the other way.
Well, that really gets at the core of it. People will expect what seems realistic to them, they can’t just will their own expectations higher or lower on a whim in an attempt at psychological self manipulation. Pretending to have lower expectations doesn’t stop you from getting disappointed.
Now, that’s not to say expectations are unchangable — new data can alter them of course. Based on various data we’ve discussed in the past few pages I have lowered my current real expectations to 45 or so (with good covid situation) which should give me a pretty reasonable chance to get disappointed and a pretty reasonable chance to get pleasantly surprised — of course, if I felt otherwise, it wouldn’t be my real expectation at all 😛
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Logically it will be even better to expect 5M, then we can still pretend to be pleasantly surprised even if it flops 😛
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1 minute ago, Noctis said:
Why is there no weekend thread?
No weekend numbers yet.
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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:
man that's horrific. I wish eternals wasn't a failure
Uhh… pretty normal actually? Like it wouldn’t be a strong hold by any means but it’s not a total nosedive either, better than the CS would suggest imo.
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3 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:
Had Eternals 7.6 and Clifford 3.6, pretty close
For wknds of 26-27 and 13.5ish
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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
I think Eternals will be around 8m and Clifford half of that. What do you guys think?
Had Eternals 7.6 and Clifford 3.6, pretty close
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Counterpoint: GoT made a bunch of differences from the book and was pretty good
countercounterpoint: s8
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2 minutes ago, Menor said:
Yeah, there are some other rumored (nearly confirmed) changes which are really concerning to me, will see if it looks better on screen.
Step 1: Find a source material you think is appealing
step 2: ignore a bunch of its choices
The science of Hollywood adaptation -
Already find myself hoping "maybe they'll do it better next time," which is... not a great sign 😂
But also, pretty premature. I'll give them at least a season's worth of benefit of the doubt.
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On 11/3/2021 at 5:11 PM, Menor said:
We don't know if he was reborn as a boy or a girl.
Oof.
Renewed for S3 -- looks like they are getting around actors aging in part with pretty continuous production.
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I bet 130 would suffice to give tele the lowest
prediction 😛
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Just now, Porthos said:
Also the sheer number of initial showtimes in a market/individual theater is something of a tell. Not a perfect tell, but there are historical ranges that can be used for broad range shortening.
Generally speaking — yes, absolutely. In this specific case I don’t think we’ll be able to distinguish a “megamonstrous+” showtime allocation from a “megamonstrous-“ showtime allocation because comps in the range are so sparse.
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One pretty interesting factor that we will learn before preview lock is preview start time. 3 vs 7 have some pretty different implications.
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CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Btw, the trailer view growth vs Endgame was actually pretty pathetic for a 2,5 year difference. It is definitely not more hyped, in any way (as a basic common sense sanity check would tell you all along).