Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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The millennials didn’t come to see it. The zoomers didn’t come. The boomers didn’t come, the Xers didn’t come, the greatest gen didn’t come… I mean, this was not a generational issue. The whole public was not interested in paying to watch this movie in a theater. That’s life.
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58 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Yeh I don’t think that makes things look any better than they are, considering quality.
Well, things definitely aren't any better than they are. But on the bright side, things aren't any worse than they are either 😛
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1 hour ago, Coldbird said:
The Nov MCU 3rd weekend drops comes from the competetion - Thor the dark world had Hunger games opening to 160m, Ragnarok had Justice League and Wonder and Doctor Strange had fantastic beast in its 3rd weekend with an 76m(?) opening.
With Thor: TDW true FSS multiplier Eternals would end up at 157m, with the overall multiplier of 2,41 at 171m. Though the legs are still worse, holiday can help, but 170m seems to be the ceiling. 160m+ most likely.
The competition certainly plays a role, though FB1 was of roughly the same magnitude as GBA here, and Eternals is going -58ish vs -61 and -62 when Thor's wemt up vs CF and JL.
I have no idea how you're getting 157 -- actually, wait, I do have an idea, I think you forgot to add previews back in.
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48 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
All this Ghostbusters chat means I didn’t even realise Eternals fell another 60%. Maybe it’ll stabilise next weekend but I can’t see it reaching Black Widow.
On 11/19/2021 at 11:34 PM, Eternal Legion said:Ahh, gotcha. Well, maybe Fri will beat Jat’s ests by a bit, they did still have a few hours left. It’s lower than I’d hope but still running very close with TDW, which is pretty fine considering the scores.
On 11/19/2021 at 11:55 PM, Eternal Legion said:In fact, even closer to tdw than I had realized. Using an 11.1 wknd est:
TDW gross cum true FSS multi Eternals gross cum true FSS multi Et/tdw cum true FSS multiPreviews 7,100,000 9,500,000 OW 85,737,841 1 71,297,219 1 1 7day 108,511,114 1.289596875 91,265,255 1.323121919 1.02599653 10day 145,097,130 1.754843829 118,115,383 1.757609562 1.001576056 14day 153,720,821 1.864507203 124,992,163 1.868889327 1.002350285 17day 167,917,123 2.04503482 136,092,163 2.04850906 1.001698866 Final 206,362,140 2.533921805 It's basically TDW redux in terms of legs, the 3rd weekend drop is actually very typical for Nov MCU. Now TDW ain't exactly aspirational, but it's better than feared on OW.
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14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Nothing odd. Normal 30-33% drop before Thanksgiving Sunday.
Ahh, Sat was a bit better than I realized. Would think -35%ish so yeah something like 32 will be pretty close.
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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
It's on digital today.
Don't think it matters much
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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:
A lot of people have more time for a 157 minute movie on a Sunday afternoon or evening than they do on a Friday. Not surprised.
It’s oddly good compared to last Sun so I am not exactly convinced by any explanation that applies equally as well there 😛
Not that I expect to be convinced by any explanation per se — sometimes things are just a little high or low for essentially inscrutable stochastic reasons.
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Speaking of V2, convincingly dethrones FG for 8th weekend record:
OW — Venom LTBC 90M
2nd wknd — SC 34.7M
3rd — SC 21.7M
4th — SC 13M
5th — SC 6.1M
6th — FG 5.1M (SC has now dropped below FG’s weekends)
7th — FG 4.1M
8th — V2 2.77M
9th — Croods2 1.8M
10th — Croods2 1.8M
11th — Croods2 1.7M
12th — Croods 2 2.1M
13th — Croods 2 1.7M
9th should be easy with holiday. 10th no chance, only an amazingly received NWH can hope to challenge the powah of the Grug Moment.
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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Sunday may be a bit under but Sony usually increase FRI, SAT to match estimates.
No big deal with GB:A anyway, real drama is in Dispatch vs V2 race 😏
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The preview:true OD sales look more like a Moana/coco prev % than WIR, which was over 20% and the only sequel of the bunch. But trying to read too much from that is shaky.
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Oddly good sun for et.
Ghostbusters sun est looked right on the money, no surprise there.
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5day should be ~1.4-1.5x the 3day, I am ballparking 3day at ~18x previews, range 14-22 (probably lower multi if higher previews, yadda yadda). So if previews can do 2, which I bet they can, like 36 3day low 50s 5day? 30-40 for 42-60?
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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Even TRoS barely reached 50% IIRC for $39M. What was it? 6PM start or 7PM.
Edit: 450 Fan shows 5PM. Rest 6PM.
But 50% still has plenty occupancy issues. It’s not like 50% every show, areas of high interest can go completely full while others are at 20% or whatever. So with an extra time the 20% just go even lower from diffusion but the areas hitting caps see more real sales.
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I’d expect a lot of occupancy issues and real sellouts with a 6PM start. The extra showing will really help admits, not just spread them out.
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Mmm, later start than expected. May have to pull my preview nums down.
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7,4 and dropping does not seem auspicious. Will be interested in the Nielsen nums at least.
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8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
16.25
4.9
3.8
2.11.36
7 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:huge Sat bump, 44ish. ~10 IM, roughly as expected
Eternals low 11s, bit better Sat than I expected
Clifford low 8s
Not sure exactly what to expect for Richard Sun drop. Probably mid 30s, for 5.3ish? Just as expected from fri, normal Sat
Dune 3.1M, bit better sat than I expected
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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:
Also think the Sunday drop will be pretty small as most schools are out for the week already.
Yeah there’s a definite effect on pre-thanksgiving week Sun. I have been using about 5%, but unclear what the baseline should be. In a very optimistic case:
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44.5
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16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
15-15.5 for now
4.6-4.7
3.6-3.8
2-2.11.3
Not a huge Sat bump, but pretty good. 41-43ish, 9-9.5 IM, fine debut.
Eternals 10.7 as expected
Clifford 8ish, slightly soft Sat but pretty normal
Not sure exactly what to expect for Richard Sun drop. Probably mid 30s, for 5.3ish? Just as expected from fri, normal Sat
Dune 3M, also just as expected, normal F
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Good weekend for my winter game preseason and SOTM at least (busters 42-120, Richard <23).
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28 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
Where does this ‘only hardcore fans are interested in the brand’ rhetoric come from? The movie has been out for ONE DAY.
I totally understand the apathy some might have over the mixed reaction in culture to the 2016 one. Yet there’s ZERO reason why this can’t have good legs if people are loving the movie.
All I’m saying is let’s give it at least until after thanksgiving before judging audiences who’ve had one day of opportunity to come out and see it.
When there’s a slightly low true fri/previews: “GA has no interest in it”
When there!s a slightly high Sat/true fri: “GA loves it”
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Virtually guarantees A. Slight chance of minus I guess.
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5 minutes ago, Momori said:
Don’t worry, with all the T&A we’re getting those three insects are definitely nailed.
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7 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:
Ahh, gotcha. Well, maybe Fri will beat Jat’s ests by a bit, they did still have a few hours left. It’s lower than I’d hope but still running very close with TDW, which is pretty fine considering the scores.
In fact, even closer to tdw than I had realized. Using an 11.1 wknd est:
TDW gross cum true FSS multi Eternals gross cum true FSS multi Et/tdw cum true FSS multiPreviews 7,100,000 9,500,000 OW 85,737,841 1 71,297,219 1 1 7day 108,511,114 1.289596875 91,265,255 1.323121919 1.02599653 10day 145,097,130 1.754843829 118,115,383 1.757609562 1.001576056 14day 153,720,821 1.864507203 124,992,163 1.868889327 1.002350285 17day 167,917,123 2.04503482 136,092,163 2.04850906 1.001698866 Final 206,362,140 2.533921805
Ghostbusters 2021 weekend Nov 19-21: Afterlife $44M OW | E: $10.8m | RD: $8.1m
in Numbers and Data
Posted
The real event of the holiday, gonna get more engagement than Encanto Gucci and raccoon combined