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Legion Again

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Posts posted by Legion Again

    Weekend Thread (5/14-16)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CJohn said:

    GvK is still gonna end up with over 90M DOM. The problem is that people don't see the majority of movies as theater worthy anymore. Something like Spiral or Those Who Wish Me Dead is no longer gonna put butts in the seats.

    Now this I will agree with. I don’t think blockbusters are dead, but anything that doesn’t feel like it really needs a big screen is going to struggle.  
     

    Notably though, we were talking about that very trend *before* covid.

     

    55 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

    I was speaking generally (same thing happens on r/boxoffice) and targeting a little bit at cjohn, since he's been saying the same thing all the time. Put me down for "AQP2 and Cruella will underperform" gang but I think those movies would've underperformed before the pandemic so I don't think those two underperforming is a big deal. 

     

    I think the real test comes in June with In The Heights and F9. If both underperform too, I'll be a lot more skpetical.

    Couldn’t agree more. Once BW hopped out of May, it just didn’t have enough variety and oomph of remaining product to serve as a real test of the market. The Peter Rabbit to BW corridor will be real make or break to see how recovery we truly are by then.

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread (5/14-16)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

     

    I've heard this talked about before on the Telegram chat, but I think a major issue plaguing theaters is less skepticism on safety and more on that people just don't want to go to the movies. People are sick of getting cooped up all year and want to do fun outdoors stuff and big vacations. Going indoors into a dark room for two hours isn't what people want to do, and streaming already has given them their entertainment fix.

     

    I could be wrong here and I know the usual suspects will give me a "haha" reaction and act as if everything will be totally fine, but I can really see this summer being a rough one just because of cabin fever. Maybe the winter holidays will be better because of the colder weather? I dunno, it's hard to be optimistic about anything these days.

    I assume I am a “usual suspect” in this context, but I actually agree with the first paragraph. Weather is getting good, once people feel like it’s party time they might tend more towards actively social events.   
     

     

    Weekend Thread (5/14-16)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

    This weekend doesn't bode well for future releases. People are still skeptical about going back to the theaters. I'm starting to think i was generous with 150M for Black Widow club

    This isn’t a covid issue so much as a product issue. 

    • Like 4

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by WandaLegion

    12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

    Why simply refuse to demand more when clearly there should be an appetite and capacity to do more?  

    You can’t just wish a movie into doing more than it would have in normalcy, and for all we know AQP2 in normalcy could have debuted at low 30s or something.  
     

    We’re past the point when a weak debut necessarily tells us where the market ceiling is — now sometimes a weak debut will just be a movie having a weak debut for normal reasons, below the market ceiling.

    • Like 2

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

    Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣

    Have to issue a correction here, I was reading mid run TF5 numbers off by one day. TF5 had a shorter run, much better pace, if F9 falls behind (which I do still expect) won’t be until final day or two.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

    Comp

    0.417x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-14 Before Release (4.05M)

    2.067x of Mortal Kombat T-14 Before Release (18.79M)

     

    @WandaLegion We need your input on the range mah boi

     

    This one is kind of tight, probably gonna miss :sadno:

     

    Spoiler

    Okay, more seriously, that is some big contraction on the MK comp. A while ago I was hoping for 20 OD (with previews) but atm I’d probably go for like 12-15.

     

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Menor said:

    FF8 seems like a better comp than H&S to me. There's a difference between a spinoff and main series. 

    If I had to pick just one, F8 for sure. But there’s also important differences to the PS behavior in terms of absolute size, and F9 seem to be hewing slightly closer to H&S there.  
     

    To wit:

    T-13  
    F8/H&S geomean
    		real/geomean
    T-12 ¥1.87 ¥4.12 45.44%
    T-11 ¥4.31 ¥5.20 82.93%
    T-10 ¥6.69 ¥6.55 102.10%
    T-9 ¥9.19 ¥9.52 96.55%
    T-8 ¥11.59 ¥12.09 95.85%
    T-7 ¥14.22 ¥15.06 94.40%
    T-6 ¥17.50 ¥19.42 90.13%
    T-5 ¥20.34 ¥23.00 88.40%
    T-4 ¥23.85 ¥27.42 87.00%
    T-3 ¥30.14 ¥35.26 85.49%
    T-2 ¥39.17 ¥46.29 84.62%
    T-1 ¥51.19 ¥60.20 85.03%
    Final ¥87.35 ¥100.75 86.70%


    Days beyond T-7 just my projection of course

    • Like 1

    Jungle Cruise | July 30 2021 | Disney | Theaters and Premier Access

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

    It´s their 5th movie to be release with PA, it´s obviously not the failure some people claim.

    It’s obvious they aren’t bad. It’s not obvious they’re good.   
     

    As I said, Disney still only has one movie’s worth of data on the hybrid PA model — a kid’s movie during a period where the pandemic was still highly impactful. The upcoming movies using that model are doing so to collect further data and in hopes that it will work out, not based on clear presently available evidence (to Disney — obviously we have even less data by a less) that it *will* work out.

    Jungle Cruise | July 30 2021 | Disney | Theaters and Premier Access

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    By the time July 30 rolls around this is going to look pretty unnecessary, but this felt halfway like a D+ original to begin with. Maybe subscriber goodwill will make up for the diminished direct revenue, though I remain skeptical — the $30 price tag kills a lot of goodwill on these relative to the WB day and date model.   
     

    The weirdest thing about this is a 4th movie and still no experimentation with a “PA after 1-5 weeks” kind of model.

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