WandaLegion

After being driven into town, my vaccine appointment for today has been cancelled because of this dumbfuck decision and I’m stuck here for the afternoon 😑

Christ, this is just like EU with AZ, I hoped we were smarter than this. Pausing to give false legitimacy to concerns about some .00001% mortality event is going to cause way more covid deaths than it prevents in blood clot deaths (if any at all). Huge blunder, just as I said when other countries did similar 🤦‍♂️ Nah, we’ll still hit 200M trivially. We could literally have the pace drop 50% starting today and we’d still clear it, the actual finish will be like 230M in first 100.

PWP are have high $$/person, but poor person/auditorium. You’re happy selling them except for when you’re capacity constrained — which, once 100% capacity returns, will probably only be a big thing on 150M+ weekends, which are pretty rare. So, theaters will be happy to keep offering PWPs in perpetuity. The question is whether consumers keep using them, and I think the answer will be “yes — some.” There are at least some people who consider it a premium experience are comfortable paying for that.

Final update was 31.62M, so if Fri and Sat are taken as .5 and .6 the Sun is 7.52. Having a 40% drop on Sun is possible, but looks odd when most Easter openers have a harsher 2nd Sun drop than 1st Sun. Fri or Sat coming down a bit when everything got accounted for would be pretty normal and just make daily relations look a bit more normal for the weekend.

With that Sun drop I suspect that some of the downward revision last weekend came out of Fri or Sat and not all Sun. Wish we had actuals, but e.g. 11.5-12.4-7.7 would make a lot more sense than 11.6-12.5-7.5

Maybe it will get a nice™️ Sun cume after all then.

Probably gonna wind up missing 69 with 66-67 on Sat and 70+ Sun. not nice

Agreed on the general point, though just 1 trailer one month before might be overcorrection (or might be fine, who knows). I feel like current marketing tactics are just inherited from a bygone era where you had to hope people learned about your movie from an in theater trailer, watching live TV ads, literal WOM, or like a newspaper or whatever. But now it’s mostly social media and internet ads. If you have a property that you know will be buzzy a 10 month/3 trailer/50 TV spot affair is just overkill and you probably aren’t getting a positive return on your marginal marketing dollar.

With Fri actual, weekend may go 14.75ish, -54%. That would be SS -46%, 23M week, 94-105ish

-60% is on the harsh side but nothing crazy. The Wed open should cushion the 2nd weekend drop a bit — but the holiday OW and being on Max exacerbate it. Taking 3.3 Fri and 9.2 SS, the SS drop would be 54%. Compare: BvS -57% SS (1.74 multi from first M-S week) F8 -49% SS (1.97 week multi) F7 -48% SS (1.97 week multi) RPO -34% SS (1.96 week multi) WW84 had holiday inflated first weekdays (even more intense than Easter) and a huge 2nd weekend drop but still getting about 2.5x week multi). So assuming a 70M 2nd weekend cume for GvK (57.5+12.5) that’s a 22M week, add 22-33 for 92-103ish.

Is this the only movie to have moved up twice and never back since covid? Awful lot of flux in and out of July recently, imagine we’re not done yet.

Yeah, it seems like they aren’t going to introduce a “green tier” after all. This is essentially saying green tier for every county is coming in mid June. Until then the current purple/red/orange/yellow system is in effect, most counties will be at 50% for the next 2 months.

Obviously California is a huge market, so direct effect is worth noting. But also important for implications — California is a very blue state that has been pretty cautious on restrictions. Pretty reasonable to assume that most of the country will go “no business capacity restrictions” in June (or very early July for July 4). It makes sense considering everyone who wants a vaccine will have a 2nd dose by then, but I admit seeing it announced by a big blue state like this so far in advance caught me rather off guard.

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 https://deadline.com/2021/04/california-ending-covid-restrictions-june-15-1234728584/ 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨