WandaLegion

Don’t really need the CDC saying this tbh, it’s just obvious to anyone who passed like 2nd grade math.

My understanding is that the goal is 100M vaccinated (although again, realistically, you’re pretty much vaccinated after the first shot from one of the 2 shot ones so using the # who have gotten a 1st shot is a better measure of vaccination progress). The course I outlined in that post is about 155M shots, which is 100M vaccinated if J&J makes up 29% of the shots.

7-day average today is 898k, +70% weekly. That isn’t nearly sustainable (don’t think we’ll hit 1.5M by next Sun, lol) but if we just have like +30%, +20%, +10% then coast for a bit Biden’s 100M in 100 days looks about right. At that point (Apr 30) we would have like 115M artificial immunity and 120M or so from natural immunity. Even if the dominant strain is 50% more transmissible by then R should be comfortably below 1 with some NPIs still in place and deaths will be <500.

I have no idea if anybody even tracked those PS runs. Certainly not on the main sheet for this thread.

It’s pretty good for a Japanese movie. PS can be found here: https://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do

I will be watching Egg closely on OD, but the PS aren’t really looking like a breakout, just solid. It’s some 35% of Peninsula D-2 PS. A big movie will have much more share than 51% on D-2 as well. If Soul is going to do very well will need a couple of nearly flat/increasing weekends. Probably not room with restrictions to get that kind of run from Soul and DS a week later, so we’ll see which it happens to (if either).

Agreed. Agreed, but chances look pretty good to me for now. Oh for sure, I don’t expect 100% seating until the fall or so. But 50% seating is really no obstacle to a 100M opening when it can just get double the screens it normally would because nothing else is making money for exhibitors. Sounds like the perfect release plan to me (assuming you mean PA) 👍

The big game for capacity is having LA and NYC open, which will depend a lot of death and case rates near there. I expect both to be quite good by April, which will give enough time to phase in reopening.

10% better than now isn’t good enough for a theatrical exclusive. How about 95% better? May 2021 will be waaaaaay better in terms of theater restrictions and audience interest than May 2020 would have been, trying to release it then would have been a PR disaster and total flop.

If it gets worse or stays the same I think we’d be looking at 25M maybe, if they tried pure theatrical? But it’s not going to be worse or the same. The past month will be basically the worst month of the entire epidemic in the US (in terms of infections, deaths lag so the worst month will be like Feb). Pessimistically May will be medium-better than right now, in which case I think this will get delayed or hybrid PA. Optimistically we’ll be at like 150 daily deaths by the time this comes out. Right now I’m leaning much closer to the optimistic view, but there is a lot of uncertainty.

Yes, in the US it does. Just wait if you must, but 4 months from now it’s going to be like night and day.

Still looking good for a pure theatrical debut. Realistically might not be 100M (though I’m still IN) but probably 70M+.

Hosp/ICU/%+/cases/tests all heading the right direction recently. I think last week was the peak, but not sustained enough yet to be sure. This is mostly before we see any effect of vaccines too.

FAKE NEWS

Should hit a 1M 7-day average right around inauguration. All that’s required for Biden’s 100M in 100 days pledge is to not actively backslide. In a period with multiple new vaccines being approved.