Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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@Porthos DS to GvK comp when 👀
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7 hours ago, Porthos said:
This is all Warner Brothers fault for enabling such behavior, you know.
Alternatively, it’s all Warner Brother’s fault for allowing such a shitty Season 8 to get made 👀
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Yeah I’ve been thinking 20-25ish for a while, not that there was super much to go off of.
More interested in DS that weekend anyway.
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2M looks pretty tough for DS again, more 1.8-1.9 is my guess. Incredible legs still, should pass Nobody and Book of Fish soon to start in the top 3 for a bit longer.
GvK at 667k after about 74k week, with more competition incoming tomorrow and Friday I guess it will miss 750.
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I don’t know anything about SW animated context off the top of my head, but:
TCW S7: 7M view, +287k, -4k (72:1)
Rebels S4: 2.3M view, +39k, -903 (43:1)
the ratio actually seems rather poor to me for a YT trailer (something in the 20x-100x range seems more typical). However, I wouldn’t pay much attention to the ratio personally. The raw like number looks fine-if-nothing-crazy.
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PWP are have high $$/person, but poor person/auditorium. You’re happy selling them except for when you’re capacity constrained — which, once 100% capacity returns, will probably only be a big thing on 150M+ weekends, which are pretty rare.
So, theaters will be happy to keep offering PWPs in perpetuity. The question is whether consumers keep using them, and I think the answer will be “yes — some.” There are at least some people who consider it a premium experience are comfortable paying for that.
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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
11.5
12.6
7.6
Final update was 31.62M, so if Fri and Sat are taken as .5 and .6 the Sun is 7.52. Having a 40% drop on Sun is possible, but looks odd when most Easter openers have a harsher 2nd Sun drop than 1st Sun. Fri or Sat coming down a bit when everything got accounted for would be pretty normal and just make daily relations look a bit more normal for the weekend.
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With that Sun drop I suspect that some of the downward revision last weekend came out of Fri or Sat and not all Sun. Wish we had actuals, but e.g. 11.5-12.4-7.7 would make a lot more sense than 11.6-12.5-7.5
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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
5.9 GVK Sat.
Maybe it will get a nice™️ Sun cume after all then.
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11 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I don't know what you're talking about. Getting $69m by Sunday is clearly nice.
Probably gonna wind up missing 69 with 66-67 on Sat and 70+ Sun.
not nice
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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Opinion. I think Hollywood over market its films.
I think a film should have just one trailer and release it say 1 month before release. That's more than enough. Releasing multiple trailer, marketing for months is just a waste IMO.
GvK marketing should be followed.
Agreed on the general point, though just 1 trailer one month before might be overcorrection (or might be fine, who knows).
I feel like current marketing tactics are just inherited from a bygone era where you had to hope people learned about your movie from an in theater trailer, watching live TV ads, literal WOM, or like a newspaper or whatever. But now it’s mostly social media and internet ads. If you have a property that you know will be buzzy a 10 month/3 trailer/50 TV spot affair is just overkill and you probably aren’t getting a positive return on your marginal marketing dollar.
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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:
-60% is on the harsh side but nothing crazy. The Wed open should cushion the 2nd weekend drop a bit — but the holiday OW and being on Max exacerbate it.
Taking 3.3 Fri and 9.2 SS, the SS drop would be 54%. Compare:
BvS -57% SS (1.74 multi from first M-S week)
F8 -49% SS (1.97 week multi)
F7 -48% SS (1.97 week multi)
RPO -34% SS (1.96 week multi)
WW84 had holiday inflated first weekdays (even more intense than Easter) and a huge 2nd weekend drop but still getting about 2.5x week multi). So assuming a 70M 2nd weekend cume for GvK (57.5+12.5) that’s a 22M week, add 22-33 for 92-103ish.
With Fri actual, weekend may go 14.75ish, -54%. That would be SS -46%, 23M week, 94-105ish
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-60% is on the harsh side but nothing crazy. The Wed open should cushion the 2nd weekend drop a bit — but the holiday OW and being on Max exacerbate it.
Taking 3.3 Fri and 9.2 SS, the SS drop would be 54%. Compare:
BvS -57% SS (1.74 multi from first M-S week)
F8 -49% SS (1.97 week multi)
F7 -48% SS (1.97 week multi)
RPO -34% SS (1.96 week multi)
WW84 had holiday inflated first weekdays (even more intense than Easter) and a huge 2nd weekend drop but still getting about 2.5x week multi). So assuming a 70M 2nd weekend cume for GvK (57.5+12.5) that’s a 22M week, add 22-33 for 92-103ish.
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The Power Broker was Agatha all along.
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Spoiler7 minutes ago, Menor said:
Is it supposed to be implied by his bending of the metal?
SpoilerThat’s definitely how I took it.
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2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:
I don't think What If will happen so early this summer as Loki will still be going in July, Bad Batch will be over by then.
I wonder if it'll be over before Monsters At Work starts as it'll be theitr next big animated stuff on July 2. If Bad Batch starts with 3 eisodes on Week 1 and a 2-episode finale or even 3-episode finale it should stop at the right moment.
Even if bad batch starts with 4 in one week, ep 14 would be mid July. For now I’d say Bad batch and Loki likely end July with WhatIf late July/early Aug.
Pixar is a bit of a different track, even if it’s animated.
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2 hours ago, andersonhoran said:
New reports from box office analysts are stating that by shifting Black Widow from May 7th to July 9th, the film’s domestic projection has increased from $45M to $170M, with a new projected opening weekend of $63M.
https://observer.com/2021/04/marvel-black-widow-box-office-prediction-f9-no-time-to-die/
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Nice!
I doubt they’ll overlap Bad Batch and WhatIf though, with both being animated. But might transition right from one into the other with that kind of episode count.
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23 minutes ago, Menor said:
I would say that one thing I have been missing from both this and WandaVision is the usual MCU humor. Episode 3 was better as Zemo delivered some quite funny lines. But other than him, while I am enjoying the story, the humor in WandaVision and this show has fallen more flat. Maybe it's because I'm watching this at home, but I doubt it, since I can still rewatch Endgame or GOTG or Ragnarok or Captain Marvel or Ant-Man and laugh quite a bit. Perhaps its the direction, idk. But I wouldn't mind seeing some better-delivered humor.
I think the length and pacing of series just lends itself less to the kind of propulsive quippiness that you get in a lot of the movies.
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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
are they releasing trailers on tiktok? well in that case 70m is possible considering how big view counts on tiktok are. But its banned here in India and I never used it. so no idea.
I truly have no clue, I’m too old for Tiktok 😂
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This is outside my realm of expertise but I wonder how much drift between number on main platforms and official number is just driven by new platforms (Tiktok etc).
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If they say 70M, it definitely got 70 somewhere in some sense. Maybe not a very meaningful sense — but can still be compared to other numbers of the same type that are presumably counting the same sources.
Whatever metrics you look at I think the clear takeaway is “nothing crazy, but solid enough for a 3rd/4th/whatever trailer.”
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What we need is a nice lil Demon Slayer breakout, Broly style
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Ooooooh boy. So this is really the “delve into time travel, alternate timelines, further explore Endgame’s time travel rules” property, huh.
That will be great if the pay pull it off but ngl, that area is super fraught. I guess it was inevitable that they’d delve into it more at some point, so nothing to do but cross my fingers that this doesn’t completely destroy the logical cohesion of the MCU
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by WandaLegion
No weekend has had multiple movies open at 4M+