Legion Again

Yeah, I was going by an ad hoc mix of scores, legs, and a little OS considerations. Shazam was probably one tier too high.

We have 9 movies now right? Reception is something like: Great — WW, Shazam Good — Aquaman Mixed — BoP, MOS, WW84 Bad to terrible — SS, BvS, JL The whole point of a shared universe is to connect the future films with the quality of the previous one’s in the audiences mind. At this point it’s more of an anchor than a support, I truly think they would be better off cancelling it entirely and starting again with a new universe in a few years based on successful mostly standalone films. Especially since the crossovers are the main point of leverage, and the 2 films with big crossover elements are in the bottom bucket.

I assume Netflix would pay more than 250 for TSS or Matrix. But there is a pretty reasonable correspondence between “market price” and “best film [in terms of financial value],” no? I have not read the specific Grace thread and do not plan to because it’s surely stupid in the particulars.

Deadline had WW1 at just over 250M profit with 660 in rev and 400 in costs. Revenue coming down 25% to 500M would not be that crazy (this would take a less than 25% drop in box office afaik, since home and TV ancillaries are smaller than 2017)? Production budget is up 50M, marketing probably up ~50M, participation’s could be up near 25M if Jenkins and Gadot got that bag... it doesn’t seem all that hard to imagine a slight loss actually. But again, in reality, it’s being deliberately used as a loss leader by AT&T.

Will be kind of bummed if Demon Slayer tops the movies released in 2020 up to Dec 30 and then loses to one from Dec 31 😆

Clearly getting trolled/bombed a bit over there. Even though it was kind of meh, it’s not markedly worse than SS/BvS/JL. Letterboxd is down to 2.8 though. Won’t be shocked if it settles near 2.6 with Hulk and TDW.

We’ll never know for sure, but I think if people are honest with themselves we kind of know that it would likely be under 700M. In reality though, the measure of success will be like, end of Jan paying MAX accounts.

Whether it end more like 19 or more like 21, very strong day. % of gross rose about 200% on Sat, then another 75%+ on Sun. Good occupancy, good Mon PS, let’s see where the day takes us. Mayhave a very nice little period at the CBO here after early Dec sucked, with Shock Wave 2 and Soul into LRF into CNY.

Well, the reception has also been bad in countries where it was theatrical only, so... It has some pros, but you also really feel the runtime more and lack of action. The reception for Soul, released on the same day, also seems like a point against this theory.

Right after seeing 1st one, I thought “eh, that was okay origin story (tone was jarring for me as a minor World War 1 buff, but I liked that they at least gassed that village), but hopefully sequel can do something exciting with character in present day like TWS.” Like a year later it was announced that the 2nd entry would be another prequel and Steve would return, and I was like ... “uh oh.” If WW3 is set in the present and they don’t return Steve again as a crutch, good chance it will be my favorite of the trilogy.

Yeah, everybody loves formulaic JJ. Just look at last Dec!

Way more theaters are open right now than I expected, given the hospitalization, positive %, death, etc numbers. This looks like it will clear 10M anyway, honestly a positive indicator of audience interest in the big screen experience.

So... we’re people supposed to remember everything that happens in the 3rd act? At first I assumed there was just no way they could possible do that, but it seems like some details that suggest they do? Would be an absolutely hilarious lack of care about continuity.

I dunno, I feel like Alan Taylor would be a better fit for that kind of material.

I’d rather not have another Jenkins CBM blockbuster I think, especially MCU. Out of those options though, Superman does feel like by far the best fit. I think she might fit better with the ethos of Star Wars, we’ll see how that goes.

There’s “kids movie” as in aimed at 13-16 year olds and “kids movie” as in aimed at 6-8 year olds. Nothing inherently wrong with either, but pretty different thing.

Very well said.

No. See above.

We see a discrepancy pretty clearly with PostTrak/CS vs online. Presumably in part its driven by the 2 groups getting different experiences, but there’s also self-sorting — people who paid extra to go see this in a cinema are disproportionate likely to be megafans, much like we see on preview night with a normal release model. So, the physical scores are inflated a bit relative to actual audience reception — and this will be a dynamic we need to get used to if WB is going to do another dozen of these.

All you need to know about that metric, LOL. It did just drop below 3 on letterboxd though. Feel like they’re basically the least brigades scores you can find. The RT trend also seems pretty clear that with enough new reviews, it would dip below 60. I don’t think it will get quite that many total reviews though, probably just settle at 62 or something.

I think it’s pretty evident at this point that this is more likely than not DOM, OS-C, and C. Maybe 300+300+50 or something.

Only people with boring opinions have middle ground 50 minutes ago selves

Not a normal Fri-Sat relationship because of Xmas. Aside from the also very well-received Shock Wave 2, most movies were down today in gross and occupancy. Sun PS look very good, though unfortunately I didn’t think to note down Sat PS yesterday.

I know how to interpret verified scores. The problem is for usual movies, most people who actually watched it count in verified. For this movie, most of the people who actually watched it don’t count as verified. The verified score is specifically from people who were in a region with open theaters, and decided to pay more+get out of the house (during a time when the pandemic is still pretty bad). It’s a way different selection effect than for non-hybrid release movies.

If you want to average verified and unverified, which seems rather generous considering the circumstances, it would still be 62% 😬