Legion Again

Guardians came out forever ago and everyone who wants to see it in a theater has. Seems like a pretty fine time to go to streaming

150M in 2006 is ~225M in 2023 (for the general economy, not tickets specifically)

Mission Impossible adjusted (I’m lazy and using the-numbers with a 2022 atp of 10.45 but 2023 will probably come in ~10.85 in reality so you can kick these up like 3-4%): MI 375M MI2 366M MI3 187M MI4 276M MI5 242M MI6 253M MI7 190 (est) Could be a nail biter with MI3 which likely will be ~193 or so. Pretty consistent franchise, some drop off from first entries is normal and then stabilization

Shaquille O Neal Shoulder Shake GIFfrom Shaquille O Neal GIFs

First I thought SI would be good and connect to this a lot and I was happy. Then I thought it would be good and not connect much and I was sad. Now I think it won’t connect much and I’m happy.

Wow I’m coming for poster of the day at this rate Always happy to inspire such mirth

No hiding here, you knew it was false when you said it 😘

It will fail to make a profit straight up

Updated with mix of studio ests and my ests: Movie Shows Change Gross PSA Mission: Impossible 7 100,031 $55,000,000 $550 Insidious 6 43,287 -20.22% $13,000,000 $300 Indiana Jones 5 40,724 -40.42% $12,000,000 $295 Sound of Freedom 36,577 16.93% $27,500,000 $752 Elemental 35,171 -3.90% $8,900,000 $253 Joy Ride 26,152 -32.20% $2,600,000 $99 Spider-Verse 2 25,604 -15.30% $6,100,000 $238 No Hard Feelings 19,455 -30.47% $3,250,000 $167 Transformers 6 16,997 -28.03% $3,400,000 $200 The Little Mermaid 11,623 -35.27% $2,400,000 $206 The Miracle Club 8,364 $0 Ruby Gillman 7,715 -75.87% $950,000 $123 Asteroid City 6,283 -47.84% $1,160,000 $185 Psycho-Pass 5,247 $200,000 $38 The Flash 4,335 -65.09% $700,000 $161 Howner ever exhibitors can look at the PSA drops vs last week and demo competition to see that Elemental will have a higher PSA curve next wknd so I anticipate something like: Barbie 125k Opp 90k SoF 45k MI 40k Ele 28k Insidious 20k Indy 18k SV2 16k This is my first time projecting though didn’t go too hard at it

Next wknd top 5 given here:

Think elemental beats TGM multi (which also suffice to top sing 2 gross though not quite puss)

<- AI has been defeated

Ah that’s fair there was some cope about the Jul 4 timing deflating the 3day. But I would say that overall MI7 is getting the extreme kiddie gloves compared to Indy from the press in terms as far as 300M movies doing 80M 5days go

I think Ele actuals can flirt with 9M

Uhhhhh… have you, perhaps, accidentally reversed the movie titles in this sentence?

Earlier is bolder — put me down for another wknd increase (single digits)

Sure, I mean: Sat 10.5 Sun 9.5 //86 4.5 5 4.5 4 // 104 That’s with a 45M wk so say it drops 40% to barbenhiemer ( 27// 131) and then 30% from there adds 63 for 194. Wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those nums beat.

I expect it’ll easily clear 4x OWeek maybe 5x

Not too late for an “over QM”

At this point I would move away from comparing WW nums and mostly looks at WW-C comparison. 1B WW got to the point where it wasn’t worth that much but 1B WW-C never did.

If somebody wanted to spend $45 to buy 3 tickets for Dead reckoning and use them as 1 for personal viewing+ 2 to be used by people who want to see the movie but can’t afford it, that seems… totally legit and good? I think this would have been a great option for say, Black Panther — in fact the gofundme’s leading to charity buys (which I think were good and pretty widely positively received?) are basically the same concept but with more convoluted logistics 🤷‍♂️

I swear the fri is going to be 8.5 when I wake up 😵‍💫

As for this week: Movie Shows Change Gross PSA Mission: Impossible 7 100,031 $49,000,000 $490 Insidious 6 43,287 -20.22% $14,000,000 $323 Indiana Jones 5 40,724 -40.42% $13,500,000 $331 Sound of Freedom 36,577 16.93% $24,000,000 $656 Elemental 35,171 -3.90% $8,800,000 $250 Joy Ride 26,152 -32.20% $2,600,000 $99 Spider-Verse 2 25,604 -15.30% $5,900,000 $230 No Hard Feelings 19,455 -30.47% $3,250,000 $167 Transformers 6 16,997 -28.03% $3,400,000 $200 The Little Mermaid 11,623 -35.27% $2,300,000 $198 The Miracle Club 8,364 $0 Ruby Gillman 7,715 -75.87% $950,000 $123 Asteroid City 6,283 -47.84% $1,100,000 $175 Psycho-Pass 5,247 $300,000 $57 The Flash 4,335 -65.09% $700,000 $161 SoF isn’t 2nd in PSA after all I expect we’ll see extreme volume hold (or even further expansion?) for SoF, MI falling to some 40k or so, Elemental by 30%ish, and extreme slash to the rest to make way for 200k+ new demand.

This nominal steadiness is just a sign of secular real decline. When MI10 does $190 in 2031 that’ll be pretty eh.