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I think he's just still at the denial stage. Some people made a joke out of it throughout the week but I honestly think some Cameron and/or Avatar fans are going through those here. Some of them are/were at denial, some have shown anger, some bargaining. Then there are definitely those who've been handling Endgame's overperformance quite well too. But for those that haven't been, I'm actually honestly quite sad for them because Cameron's double crown was quite a personal glory for a lot of them so their reactions can be sort of harsh. So I don't know how much it is productive to engage in #s with those type of reactions. Anyway, we should get an international total for Wednesday in a little over an hour right? I'm quite curious of Wed #s.

You do realise the former group is literally dozens of markets, right? It really seems like in the past week whenever China or DOM did not go above expectations, the other did. And in weekdays, Monday was normal in China but DOM Monday was above expectations then Tuesday and Wednesday have been above expectations in China so perhaps more normal DOM #s. Then if PSm of Thursday in China doesn't increase much perhaps Thursday DOM will be above expectations confirmed? Haha, I don't know. Reaching for irrelevant correlations that cannot have any causality at all here.

For comparison:

I assume you mean in USD and among foreign films. Because has no chance including local films and it is already locked to obliterate foreign films total gross record in lc. But in USD top 3 is: 1) Avatar: 17,564,479 2) FF7: 12,411,481 3) Titanic: 10,423,522 I don't see it. It's not impossible though. TRY/USD needs to stay stable, even increase a little preferably. And then it needs to repeat AIW legs to pass Titanic. Difference is AIW had a 3-day OW and Endgame had an extra full Thursday even though its OW was way more backloaded than I imagined. So reaching AIW multiplier is tough. I'd say it's doable but unlikely. Anything over 8mUSD is cool. I mean I expected it to drop from AIW's USD total just a week ago even though I knew it broke presale records. So even matching 5,6m USD total would have been overperforming considering ER drop anyway.

Turkey Endgame OW (4 day with OD on thursday): 4,057,205 USD estimated/24,059,227 lc/1,318,031 admissions Infinity War OW (3 day with OD on friday): 2,566,580 USD/10,375,657 lc/683,075 admissions I... Yeah, I know Endgame does basically everything that it shouldn't do but technically possible. This is even beyond that to be honest. I did not see this coming at all even after its monstrous Thursday OD. It basically averaged its OD lc on FSS and only slightly dropped in admissions. I said this after that beastly OD: But now, not only it will add to AIW's USD cume a few millions despite suffering the third worst LC/USD drop in all markets, it already made %71 of AIW's total in even USD. And %88 in lc & %69 in admissions. In just 4 days. And Turkey isn't a frontloaded market relatively, even though Hollywood films are frontloaded but relative to local films only. Infinity War multiplier in lc was 2,63. In USD, it was 2,21. That was a 3 day OW. Being pessimistic and expecting even more drop in TRY/USD, and worse legs due to 4-day opening it still should clear 8m USD cume with ease. Well, unless TRY/USD completely crashes. Beating Avatar admissions is a lock now, which I said it had a chance of after OD #s. Honestly even has a good shot at #1 all time foreign film admissions. Let me quote myself from friday after OD #s were announced about that btw: I'm throwing out pessimistic scenarios, but might actually see good legs. Deadpool is kind of strong in Turkey and was tough competition. John Wick 3 will do good numbers but if Pika doesn't do above average business which is a total wildcard, and if TRY/USD doesn't crash, will go even above 8m USD cume with ease. No shot at top 25 but could make it to top 30 all time (since 1989 more like) admissions & be the 3rd foreign film to do so. Turkey is a small market that doesn't require this long of a recap, and I actually didn't intend to until I saw the numbers. I was going to just share the #s and write a few sentences. But the numbers are so surreal, I just cannot believe it really is going to increase from AIW USD cume so clearly despite exchange rate completely tanking relative to AIW's exchange rate. It basically treated Turkey box office like a young, Asian developing market and even then some. I know it's a small market and all but relatively, it reminds me of its Italy overperformance. Just outlandish, what a mad film. It's breaking records and reaching numbers as if it's a living organism that hears "Yeah, Endgame will not reach this" and smashes those #s out of spite.

I want to travel back in time to Infinity War weekend thread just when that Saturday number was announced and people were talking about how AIW smashed the "single day capacity of around 70m" conversations, to say that I'm from the future and Avengers 4 will make 96,7m on its true Friday with likely to go up a bit from that estimated number after doing 60m from previews and is locked to smash the 100m barrier on Saturday. Can I do that? Also most of you underestimate Thrones popularity, I think. Except that 1 billion number, that sounds unbelievable. I can't believe that number unless I see some info on SE Asia. But it's a lot more pirated than it's legally watched in a lot of countries and it's pirated in other ways that cannot be tracked unlike torrent or whatever. Also those World Cup numbers that were shared by @cdsacken were undershooting it by hundreds of millions of people. But anyway, I expect very, very minimal impact of Thrones on Endgame due to many reasons people already laid out. Thrones' level of popularity is not that relevant to its impact on Endgame's Sunday. Obviously don't know what these numbers provided by Charlie even are. But whatever they are, Friday Endgame increase over Friday AIW was %68. Real Friday increase was %42. That's 1.62 ratio. Sat Endgame increase over Friday AIW is %72. Applying same ratio, Saturday increase would be little over %44. That equals 118m Saturday for Endgame. I know this was useless because it's from some partial data of the day while not knowing what that data even is. But just juggling some numbers for fun. I still just expect 110m Sat after last Charlie update.

Looking at DOM and China OW projections and juggling with some of those numbers, while understanding that it's still very early to talk about legs, could we say that DOM + China total is likelier than not to get past Age of Ultron WW total? I don't know if we can say that yet but personally I'd bet over without hesitation. That's so absurd, Age of Ultron is the 8th highest grossing film. And I mean Infinity War almost made 1B in the rest of the markets and it looks like Endgame will increase a lot over that too, this is just a monster. It's probable to get to #2 WW highest grosser with such ease.

I wonder if we would be saying beating Avatar WW total is locked right now if Endgame had The Avengers exchange rates. Haven't done any math on that, and might do for fun later but I feel like we would. And wouldn't be able to say it's locked at all with Ultron ERs but I also wonder how would it look with Ultron ERs too.

Turkey Endgame OD (thursday): 352,089 admissions/6,082,094 lc/1,022,200 USD estimated Infinity War OD (friday): 244,363 admissions/3,777,551 lc/935,037 USD estimated. %44, %61, %9 increases respectively despite like Spain, switching OD to a thursday from a friday. Beat Thursday OD record by %44.5 (belonged to highest grossing film in Turkey previously) in admissions and by %120 in lc, beat OD record in lc by %20 which Infinity War is at #5 all time and only other Thursday OD on the list is that highest grossing film ever at #9, became #4 all time in admissions of OD which has no other Thursday ODs in the top 10 and no Infinity War. Looks like it'll be the 5th foreign film to pass 2 million admissions (AIW was 1,909,967 anyway at #5 all time) and might have a shot at Avatar's 2,482,991 admissions to snatch the #4th place. Won't reach top 3. Should be the #1 all time in local currency as well, AIW was #3. But won't even get half of Avatar's 17.5m USD cume even though it'll beat it in lc. And including local films, AIW was at #64 all time by admissions, Endgame should be locked into top 50. Turkey box office is dominated by local films for the uninitiated, #1 admissions of foreign releases makes it to #26 all time when including local films. Insane numbers for a small market. I was going to say %43 is a bit much because TRY/USD tanked after a few days of Infinity War like Brazil and the rest of its gross was affected. But TRY/USD started to tank again for Endgame's OW now so that might be the right percentage. I thought Endgame matching Infinity War's USD cume would be a big overperformance but then its Thursday OD went ahead and almost increased %10 over Infinity War's friday OD in freaking USD despite all the exchange rate drop and I don't know what to tell you anymore. Deadpool is relatively strong in Turkey and was tough competition for AIW. For Endgame, John Wick 3 will do good business but Pika is a wildcard. I can see it being a flop or a success both. That will affect Endgame legs. No big local film releases during this time, they release in the winter season. Will see if it can really match Infinity War USD cume or even beat it. Both look very possible right now, but it's just OD numbers. Thing is, Turkey won't add really much from AIW due to tanked TRY/USD but AIW admissions/lc for Endgame would meant a few million decrease for Endgame WW total (which doesn't matter tbf) but now this overperformance would cover for those lost millions even if it does not add meaningfully to Endgame's WW gross by increasing over AIW.

Germany OD increase in USD is %75.5 and Italy OD increase in Euro is around %73. If we were to use %70 instead on USD France gets to 6,63m USD OD. Unfortunately I couldn't find Spain OD despite searching the Spain and Infinity War OS thread but AIW Spain OD was a Friday and this is a Thursday so cannot apply the %70 increase scenario anyway. So I dropped the percentage a bit and Italy's AIW OD was a holiday and Germany OD for Endgame seems to have lower average ticket price than expected which may not happen in France so some room for more than 7m USD OD in France perhaps.

So OW looks like it could overperform somewhat which is utterly insane because how high expactations are but still need relatively exceptional legs for Avatar even then. Remember when we were debating a year ago whether this could stay flat or not from Infinity War? It challenging Titanic was quite an optimistic prediction then, now it seems probable.

So what do you guys think it's more impressive, its each OW day beating the previous 24 hour record in 12 hours on an OW that has 4 workdays or the idea that it'll beat FF8's midnight gross likely in less than 24 hours of presales?

I don't think it's that strange, early on monday always beats thursday. And Endgame's 3rd day is a thursday. Now, day 3 effect kicks in because monday won't beat thursday here and that's day 3 effect. But look up AIW's early presales, monday always beats thursday and 04/04/2019 being 3rd day provides additional %30 or so advantage. Think that's pretty normal.

How likely do you think 26.8m€ total is for about a 30m USD based on current eur-usd rate?

So 95k after the first day. This is pretty great, isn't it? Considering AIW first weekend was just very little below 1m admissions. But I don't know about Spain box office and presales habits.