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Posts posted by Andreas
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I absolutely love this thread.
So this is what happens to BOT when actuals aren't posted on time.
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5 hours ago, Bruce said:
it’s already locked for beating SW7 and A3
Bruce, it arguably will, but it still has to gross $525M going into its fourth weekend in order to reach $2.07B WW and get there.
That's not a small amount.
The word "locked" has been used quite excessively when it comes to this movie.
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2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:
FRANCE $97M?!?!?!?
Well, it looks like the matter has been decided at a higher level.
France will drop ATP as much as necessary to keep A2 below $100M.
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So $22M OS on THU, somewhat lower than expected I think?
Germany has passed SK on its way to $100M+.
France has finally reached the $100M.
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19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Yeah, the actuals will likely be around $7M.
22 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:It will increase as always.
This time it might not, since Megan had Thur previews.
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I'd like to point out that the INT total number is all over the place.
BoxOfficeReport has it at $1.052B after a $26.4M WED, yet
BOM has an est. total of $1.025B as of TUE and The Numbers has a total of only $1.02B as of TUE, after previously reporting $1.024B for something like 3-4 hours.
The math doesn't add up in any scenario.
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3 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:
France doesn’t report box office, it reports admissions. People have been using expected ER to translate that to box office but Disney reported a lower than expected number a few days ago (I believe about $5-6M lower than Charlie expected) so that’s the issue there.
I know, Charlie has explained this to me too.
I hate the number nevertheless
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Just now, Issac Newton said:
I absolutely hate the France number.
I feel like France has been stuck at O/U $95M for the last 4 days now.
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2 hours ago, Juby said:
If? This is 100% locked. After this weekend A2 will be at around $1.7b, beating TFA ww is a done deal.
I agree that it is possible, perhaps even likely, but to say that it is "100% locked" is false. In order to beat IW and TFA, the movie still has to get its grip on almost $600M. That is not an easy task for any movie during and after its fourth week since the release.
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@IronJimbo if A:TWOW will in the end outgross A:IW worldwide (not yet saying that it will, I still have some doubts on $2B and beyond), know that imo it's completely deserved.
A:TWOW captured all that I want to see in a big, event-like blockbuster. A movie with a big budget well-spent on cutting edge action scenes, world building and heart, with a real message for everyone - things that the post-A:EG MCU is lacking A LOT, and because of that phases 5 and 6 will sadly continue to spiral down without a huge course correction.
James Cameron on the other hand truly did it again.
I'll say that for now A3 is my most anticipated movie (or perhaps the second most anticipated movie, after Oppenheimer).
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7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
France gross are always estimates. The initial ATP did felt was a lot higher.
Sorry, I think I misunderstood this. Are the est. $93M or the est. $99M as of MON more realistic?
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1 minute ago, MG10 said:
Chances for UK to pass Germany?
0%, Germany will pass South Korea and become the third market, after China and France
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33 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:
Finals:
FRI - $24,836,835
SAT - $18,053,159
SUN - $24,519,161
3-DAY - $67,409,155MON - $21,411,622
4-DAY - $88,820,777
CUME - $446,938,691 in 18 daysDaamn, they all went up!
FRI up $396K
SAT up $53K
SUN up $119K
MON up $211K
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17 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
IronJimbo is Luiz?
I think it's Sheldon
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1 hour ago, Bruce said:
maybe 35m RON final
Highly doubtful, Romania is not known for very good legs. For now I'd say 30m RON max.
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As of SUN, Avatar: The Way of Water has reached 21M RON ($4.53M) in Romania, on its way to becoming at least the second highest grossing movie of all time (behind only Avatar 1).
On its 3rd week in Romania, the movie has grossed $2.03M (+78% vs week 2. It made $1.14M during its 2nd week here).
This week should also see a pretty decent hold, since schools are still closed.
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As of SUN, Avatar: The Way of Water has reached 21M RON ($4.53M) in Romania, on its way to becoming at least the second highest grossing movie of all time (behind only Avatar 1).
On its 3rd week in Romania, the movie has grossed $2.03M (+78% vs week 2. It made $1.14M during its 2nd week here).
This week should also see a pretty decent hold, since schools are still closed.
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1 minute ago, LPLC said:
Wow ! I was thinking $30M-$35M but you all expect something around $40M, is there a holiday or something ?
Personally expecting smaller weekdays and a generous $37.5M weekend
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10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
Its almost hit 1bil International off a 181mil weekend (it will hit 1bil international with Mondays take).
To miss 1.4bil International would mean pretty terrible legs to be honest.
1.6bil International is probably the floor.
EDIT. Its International take is 961mil as of Sunday, not 803mil.
EDIT. 2. Oh you're not including China's gross for some reason. I dont see what getting to 1.4bil wihtout China has to do with anything. Does China not count or something?
Please go back to your initial response. I've said that $1.4B is locked thanks to China. You've responded with 'you mean regardless of China' -> that means believing that this movie can get to $1.4B without China.
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26 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
I think you mean 'regardless' of China right?. If China wasnt covid ravaged we would be looking at 1.8-1.9bil International take.
As for domestic, A2 will be around the 500mil range off a 30-40mil 4th weekend. The legs would have to be awful to miss 600mil.
No, I mean 'thanks' to China. The OS-C gross as of Sunday is $803M and the Holiday Season is over. This movie's chances of getting to $1.4B OS-C are minimal.
34 minutes ago, Firepower said:It seems you really want to downplay the results for some reason.
Downplaying the result? As in a WW total under $2B would be something disappointing? Any movie that makes this kind of money is a success story, and your deduction based on what I've said is illogical.
29 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:
Yep. There’s a bunch of people inhere that desperately wants to go back to 10 days ago when ~$1.7B seemed the final number. The reason? Unknown.I'd say there's a bigger bunch of people in here that desperately want to go back to 20+ days ago when numbers like $3B and even $4B were thrown around. There's nothing to suggest that this movie will go above $650M DOM, and there are comps to suggest that $600M DOM are not locked yet.
My prediction was and remained $2B WW.
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7 minutes ago, Torontofan said:
Thinking
1.4 billion overseas and 600 domestic look certain
Yes, thanks to China.
8 minutes ago, Torontofan said:Thinking
1.4 billion overseas and 600 domestic look certain
Still not 100% sold on this one, gonna wait for the next weekend.
Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
You're full of wisdom brother Jimbo