Andreas
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Posts posted by Andreas
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Smaller European markets does BIG. $105M Europe weekend. Full run likely be $550M+.
Overall weekend can come around $307M.Second biggest opening weekend OF ALL TIME in Romania.
6.305.847 RON ($1.36M), probably over 200K admissions.
COMPS:
2.05 x Doctor Strange 2
1.94 x Spider-Man: No Way Home
1.5 x Avengers: Endgame
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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Seems like 36M SUN.
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13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)
China: 120 - 165
SK: 85 - 100
UK: 75 - 90
France: 60 - 75
India: 55 - 70
Mexico: 55 - 65
Germany: 45 - 60
Australia: 40 - 55
Brazil: 40 - 55
Japan: 35 - 50
Italy: 25 - 35
Spain: 25 - 35
Other: 425 - 550
Total: 1085 - 1405
I feel like Japan might be overestimated and Italy & Spain underestimated a bit?
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1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:
No one can convince me that those are good numbers.
Decent numbers in LATAM, Western Europe - UK, India, SK, maybe Australia.
Below mediocre in UK & US
Absolutely awful in China & Japan
The problem is that, even if there aren't many markets in which the movie underperforms, these markets are the huge ones, which could've potentially boosted the movie to the moon.
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Just now, excel1 said:
So will this even get to a $1 billion with those numbers?
Probably yes, it should make more than JWD in most international markets.
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People discussing the MCU in the last 5 pages of Avatar's OW thread.
This is the nightmare scenario for Jim's fans...
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1 minute ago, GipJo said:
Maoyan updated their daily prediction, now the total box office prediction is 144 million (¥1 billion).
Makes sense, no way a $50M OW would've led to $261M.
My target is $124M (TFA's total gross in China)
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43 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
$275M+ OW combined from US and China?
EASY, it just needs around $225M OW domestically!
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4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:
CBeebies Panto: Dick Whittington and His Cat Modern Films 2 £60,075 £66,678,141,037 ?????????????????????????
Outstanding performance!
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2 minutes ago, simoimo19 said:
BOX-OFFICE prévisionnel (du 14 au 20 décembre 2022)
RangTitre
EntréesVariation hebdoCumul (Millions)BudgetNbre de salles1Avatar : La voie de l'eau(2 500 000)
New2,500350 M$
7682Le chat potté 2645 000
+ 30 %1,140- M$
7003Ernest et Célestine : Le voyage en Charabie250 000
New0,2507,8 M€
6074Le royaume des étoiles205 000
+ 30 %0,363- M$
481590 000
- 35 %3,280250 M$
6566Mon héroïne80 000
New0,0804,2 M€
370775 000
+ 25 %0,26750 M$
5238Maestro75 000
- 35 %0,1874,8 M€$
4469Simone, le voyage du siècle65 000
- 25 %2,29616,7 M€
64510Le torrent50 000
- 35 %0,2823,2 M€
509-Les bonnes étoiles50 000
- 25 %0,115- M$
202-Violent night40 000
- 30 %0,183- M$
330-Corsage40 000
New0,0407,6 M€
100-Reste un peu35 000
- 30 %0,4331,4 M€
550-Stella est amoureuse20 000
New0,0203,3 M€
1292.5 M are predicted for Avatar first week .
First week meaning this one? Wed-Sun?
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1 hour ago, JustLurking said:
I'll take anything over 200M china as gravy at this point if we even cross that
It is what it is.
It probably won't cross 200M in China.
It's crashing and burning there, probably under $20M OD. Not even sure if it'll go beyond $125M (so it can outgross TFA there).
Now, if the movie can get to $2B WW, it'll be a huge accomplishment (meaning that WW-C-R is actually bigger than in the case of NWH or IW).
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Argentina and France are in the Final. It's gonna be a huge one.
Argentina has Messi, France has a lot of superstars.
Therefore both Europe and LATAM should see a considerable drop in box office.
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30 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
A lot of good info in that article….
Domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water stand at an estimated $38M through yesterday, double that of Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World at the same point in time but behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which respectively opened to $181.3M and $187.4M. Seventy-four precent of the presales are for 3D showtimes and 15% of those advance ticket sales are for showtimes outside of opening weekend.
The big chains are seeing a big proportion of advance ticket sales in Imax but not at the level of Marvel movies which is to be expected given the older adult nature of this property. Meaning, it’s typically the fanboys who pre-purchase their tickets.
The percentage of 3D presales abroad is phenomenal with Europe seeing 81%, Asia Pacific 70% and Latin America 65%.
Thursday previews in U.S./Canada start at 3PM. The weekend’s 4,100 theater count is made up of 280 4D/Dbox venues, 85 Screen X, 400 Imax 3D auditoriums, and 3,000 3D theaters. The review embargo just lifted following the Hollywood premiere last night and Rotten Tomatoes counts 81 reviews at 83% fresh. The original 2009 movie was 82% certified fresh.
That's unexpected, but good
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84% from 86 reviews on RT.
73 on MC from 41 reviews.
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The reviews are good.
They are not bad, they are not spectacular.
They are good, movie is gonna do well.
Moving on now
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3 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:
Idk why would RT be bellow 70 in any case. On Metacric only 3/34 are <60/100 . Why would the range be that much worse on RT
it won't, just concern trolling
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1 minute ago, Lucas said:
@IronJimbo this is good
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4 minutes until reviews are kicking in?
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I'll stick to my guns and continue to be the pessimist here ($2B is a pessimistic prediction LOL)
DOM: ~$600M
China: ~$400M
OS-C-R: ~$1B
WW Total: ~$2B
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88% RT
69 MC
$148M OW
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5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
We don't have any PS numbers beyond opening weekend and nothing in the opening weekend tracking suggests a domestic total one way or the other. Anything beyond an OW prediction is merely speculation.
And that underlines the fact that $625M as a minimum is also just speculation. I find it too much for the Bear Case.
If it had been any other film, I don't know if anyone would've expected a minimum of $625M from this movie's domestic run.
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1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:
It's funny to consider, but it legitimately seems like IW / TFA worldwide is the floor for this. That would only be ~600 DOM + ~400 China + ~1050 OS-C-R.
Hyper Bull Case
1150 - 850 - 1900
Bull Case
900 - 700 - 1600
Base Case
750 - 550 - 1300
Bear Case
625 - 400 - 1050
If anything, DOM could bring this movie below TFA & IW WW.
Going by the current pre-sales in the US, under $625M DOM seems very possible.
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It is interesting to see that the presales in the US are the weakest at the global level. In all the other markets where we received data about advance sales (China, South Korea, Germany, Australia, India), the film is selling many more tickets (relatively, of course).
Imo, ticket sales in the US seem to suggest way under $20M on Thursday.
Was the first movie less appreciated/more hated in the US than in the rest of the world?
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by Andreas
Second biggest opening weekend OF ALL TIME in Romania.
6.305.847 RON ($1.36M), probably over 200K admissions.
COMPS:
2.05 x Doctor Strange 2
1.94 x Spider-Man: No Way Home
1.5 x Avengers: Endgame