TomeRide

What did you expect though? Its not like we're expecting it to hit $15M+ on previews, are we? Lets say it sold 200 tickets that day. That would be the same as Black Panther (which made $25.2M in its previews), about 2/3 of what Infinity War ($39M) sold, and around 3/4 of Deadpool 2 ($18.6M). Of course there are caveats with all those comparisons, but if that were to happen it would be a sign of it going for $15M+ on previews. The problem is that you compare it to both of the outliers. Its not going to be as backloaded as Fallen Kingdom and I don't think anybody is exepecting that, nor should they. Even if it was basically the same as Solo, that's not necessarily a bad sign, and that doesn't mean its mimiking it, as its been gaining ground on it all week. Also, I'm fairly certain it'll start to outpace it tomorrow, or the next day at the latest, andif it fails to do so, then sure, that's a bad sign. But again, I'd prefer to focus on the other three, rather than the clear outliers (and I mean that by how frontloaded/backloaded they were with their respective grosses). Anyway, we'll get a clearer picture in the coming days, obviously.

$39M x 0.2811 = $10.96M $25.2M x 0.6392 = $16.11M $18.6M x 0.6723 = $12.5M $14.1M x 0.6601 = $9.31M $15.3M x 1.1053 = $16.91M These five average to $13.16M, with Tuesday's screenings making 24.8% of that figure, or $3.26M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 3 days ago it looked like this: So I was going to make this follow-up yesterday but decided to give it an extra day to balance out after the big spike on Saturday. And well, it did pick some more steam, going up again on the average. Now another thing that can give us some perspective on how it trends is the new addition of how much the other films sold for the same day before release, and it looks like this: 146 (tickets sold that day by Crimes of Grindelwald) / 200 (tickets sold that day by Black Panther) = 0.7300 146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 305 (Infinity War) = 0.4787 146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 264 (Deadpool 2) = 0.5530 146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 151 (Solo) = 0.9669 146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 220 (Fallen Kingdom) = 0.6636 Basically, its closing fast on Solo, while losing ground very fast to Fallen Kingdom, which confirms our assumption that it won't be another outlier. With that in mind, we could average just Black Panther, Infinity War, and Deadpool 2, which turns out to be $13.19M, compared to the overall average of $13.16M. Makes sense, both of the outliers cancel each other out, but regardless I think that's the number to watch, as its far less volatile without the outliers. Anyway, $10M+ previews is looking pretty damn good at this point, and I think there's a decent chance of Thursday alone going over $10M. If I had to put a number to it right now I would say around $11M-$12M, as I'm still not confident on it having great walk-ups, but with a 7x multiplier (the original had an 8.5x multiplier) that brings it to $77M-$84M for the opening weekend, which puts it handily over tracking. I'll probably make another follow-up in a couple of days.

Problem is, unlike most of the Christmas themed family films that opened in November over the years, this one it won't be in more than 1,500 theaters come Christmas due to all the competition. I don't see how it makes it to a 4x multiplier with 6 films opening in more than 3,000 theaters just in the next 10 days, and another 5 in December. Should still be good for 3.5x though.

$39M x 0.2530 = $9.87M $25.2M x 0.6090 = $15.35M $18.6M x 0.6635 = $12.34M $14.1M x 0.5903 = $8.32M $15.3M x 1.111 = $17M These five average to $12.58M, with Tuesday's screenings making 26.5% of that figure, or $3.33M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 4 days ago it looked like this: It definitely looks like presales have picked up some steam these last few days, and the chances for $10M+ previews seem quite high at this point, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact the reviews will have during the final few days leading up to release. I'll probably make another follow up post in a couple of days.

$39M x 0.2251 = $8.79M $25.2M x 0.5748 = $14.48M $18.6M x 0.6311 = $11.74M $14.1M x 0.5206 = $7.34M $15.3M x 1.1034 = $16.88M These five average to $11.85M, with Tuesday's screenings making 29.4% of that figure, or $3.48M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday wouldv'e seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 4 days ago it looked like this: So, we could see that the average has gown down a bit (though far less than I expected), while the range has shortened, and a much bigger proportion of the sales is going for Thursday instead of Tuesday. I will probably do this again in a few days to how it trends, but for now I'll say that $10M+ previews is looking pretty good, at least for the moment.

I don't think it would do that great, considering we've already got two very popular movies that are centered around the music. I'd be more interested to see how well Rocketman takes advanatge of the success of Bohemian Rhapsody (and this huge wave of musicals success this past few years) next summer. Though the real question is how well will the eventual Beatles biopic fare...

$39M x 0.2057 = $8.02M $25.2M x 0.6006 = $15.13M $18.6M x 0.6644 = $12.36M $14.1M x 0.4892 = $6.9M $15.3M x 1.1460 = $17.53M These five avarage to $11.99M, with Tuesday's screenings making 32.9% of that figure, or $3.94M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday wouldv'e seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews.

Exactly. I really noticed this a few months ago when I randomly put on their greatest hits album and was shocked at how many songs I know, its really incredible. They basically have three of the most singable songs ever with We Are the Champions, We Will Rock You, and Bohemian Rhapsody, whice are still played everywhere till' this day, and literally everybody knows the lyrics for. And with other tunes like Another One Bites the Dust, Don't Stop Me Now, Radio Ga Ga, I Want To Break Free, Somebody to Love, Bicycle Race, Under Pressure, etc., even if you're not familiar with the band, you're familiar with a ton of their work. That's a huge advantage for the marketing and appeal of the movie, and its not just with the older demographics (coming from an 18 y/o).