TomeRide

I'm the one who made that post, lol. You'd be surprised at how many people from the sub are lurking here, myself included, of course.

How's Sunday looking?

OMGGGGGGG

Mary Poppins Returns - $350M Aquaman - $285M Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - $190M Bumblebee $130M The Mule - $80M Holmes and Watson - $70M Vice - $65M Mortal Engines - $45M Single Act - $35M Welcome to Marwen - $25M We still don't information on how wide Once upon a Deadpool will play so I'm not gonna bother with it.

It still has Italy and South Africa left to open, and with the crazy holds its having overseas $600M is basically locked. I'd go as far as to bet it'll also pass $650M.

I have no idea how that number was even physically possible. How much did they charge for a ticket?

WTF did I just watch, lol. Those smartphone monsters are glorious.

Better drop than Wonder, against much tougher competition. Color me impressed.

Its domestic total will end up lower than Constner's 1991 opening weekend, lmao.

Polar Express was released 14 years ago and had far better drops than what The Grinch is having. In addition, December this year is going to be a whole lot more competitive than 2004, especially for screens and theaters. So really its a terrible comparison. Looking at recent comps for November animations that opened before Thanksgiving (Big Hero 6, The Peanuts Movie, Trolls, The Star), $260M-$270M looks like the best case scenario. Currently I would bet on $245M.

Any early word on how the Lion King trailer is received in China?

I don't think its looking at such a bad multiplier. Bigger numbers will help it stay in more theaters and for longer throughout the year-end holidays, especially compared to Coco (which thanks to a much lower opening and The Last Jedi, Ferdinand, Jumanji 2, Pitch Perfect 3, and The Greatest Showman only played in 2,100 theaters come Christmas. Btw, that's also why it had such a bad multiplier compared to Moana, at 2.88x vs 3.03x). I would be really surprised if it went any lower than 2.7x. My prediction would be around 2.8x. With a $90M opening it would end up with a little over $250M in total, and I don't see how The Grinch is matching that with all the theaters its going to lose by Christmas.

It should be noted that Crimes of Grindelwald faced a whole lot more competition than Justice League on those days (Ralph Breaks the Internet + Creed 2 + Robin Hood + Green Book >>> Coco). Hopefully that could mean a better hold through the weekend and until the big end-year releases drop on December 14th.

Just a reminder that Box Office Pro predicted $22M, lol.

Was indeed pushed to July 9th, 2021.

$300M is just too fucking low. The original made $200M right before the market expansion. I don't think people get how obscene $200M was for China back then. Just consider the fact that it broke the previous record by almost 4 times in local currency (almost 5 times in USD). This baby isn't falling below $500M in China. And its definitely opening above $120M domestically. If ticket price inflation continues in its current pace (about 3.3% a year), then we're looking at around $9.9 a ticket by the release of Avatar 2. That means the first film's opening adjusts to $100M. I don't see how its opening only 20% higher than that. Its going for $140M+, at the very least.

Hey man, lets not get ahead of ourselves. $3.5B would be fine too.

How's Sunday looking?

That number is mostly based on early east coast screenings, and that area was affected by the blizzard. West coast will be stronger and that number will go up.

Ain't no way its dropping less than 50% on its second weekend, let alone just 40%.

Ocean's 8 and Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation also had some sneak previews this past summer.

$39M x 0.3876 = 15.12M $25.2M x 0.6297 = $15.87M $18.6M x 0.6274 = $11.67M $14.1M x 0.8815 = $12.43M $15.3M x 0.8194 = $12.54M $11.5M x 1.1081 = $12.74M $10M x 1.1358 = $11.36M These seven films average to $13.1M. It seems to me like the bigger numbers of Infinity War and Black Panther are skewing the comps, considering the rest of them all fell within a range of just $1.38M. Excluding Infinity War and Black Panther, the average goes down to $12.15M, which seems more reasonable. Now, the Tuesday sales ended up as 16.38% of all sales, which translates into $1.99M. Without those sales, the average for Thursday alone is $10.14M. So, either this this area really overperformed, or this film will need to be more frontloaded than Solo or BvS in order to fall to pre-opening expectations (even their slightly below 6x multipliers would get it to around $73M). I lean on the former, but still these presales suggest to me that below $10M is highly unlikely at this point (at least when counting in the Tuesday previews, which everyone will), and I stand by my prediction from earlier today of $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend.

$39M x 0.3275 = 12.77M $25.2M x 0.6370 = $16.05M $18.6M x 0.6370 = $11.85M $14.1M x 0.7743 = $10.92M $15.3M x 0.9010 = $13.78M $11.5M x 1.4318 = $16.47M $10M x 1.3705 = $13.7M These seven films average to $13.65M. Currently the Tuesday sales take up 22.134% of all sales (though that number will obviously decrease). Without those sales the average would be $10.63M. 492 / 650 = 0.7569 | $25.2M x 0.7569 = $19.07M (not relevant due to so many seats already taken) 492 / 738 = 0.6667 | $39M x 0.6667 = 26M (not relevant at all, same as Black Panther) 492 / 835 = 0.5892 | $18.6M x 0.5892 = $10.96M 492 / 377 = 1.3050 | $14.1M x 1.3050 = $18.4M 492 / 768 = 0.6406 | $15.3M x 0.6406 = $9.8M 492 / 347 = 1.4179 | $11.5M x 1.4179 = $16.31M 492 / 498 = 0.9879 | $10M x 0.9879 = $9.88M The average of these (excluding Infinity War and Black Panther) is 13.07M. The thing is, Solo have been really frontloaded for all of its presales run, while Fallen Kingdom had been really backloaded, rendering these two outliers, and not very helpful in terms of where Crimes of Grindelwald will land. In addition, Ant-Man and the Wasp has been really weak in these presales compared to its actual previews number (maybe summer walk-ups? or it was very weak in this region? I don't know), so its not helpful either. And when it comes to Infinity War and Black Panther, their numbers are might too big to be used as good reference. All of this is to say, that I think the two films that are most worth our time to look at are Deadpool 2 and Venom. Regardless, I just wanted to do some calculations to get some perspective on how it stands right now, and y'all are free to interpret them however you'd like. For me it just looks pretty unlikely for it to fall below $10M, at least when Tuesday's previews are counted in. Currently my prediction would be $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend.

Yeah, pretty much. Currently I see it opening with $115M ($145M for the long weekend), finishing with about $330M domestically, and around $800M worldwide.

Presuming Avengers 4 gets to open only after the early May holidays on May 10th, what does that say about the release date of Detective Pickachu? I mean there's no chance they'll these release two huge event films on the same week, or even only one week apart, right?