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eridani

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Everything posted by eridani

  1. eridani
    Sooo... Does that all point to a 135 to 140 OW?
  2. eridani
    Question for the people who couldnt get used to HFR: Do you dislike motion smoothing setting on your TV abd make an effort to always turn it off on your TV?
  3. eridani
    Domestic 700 x 0.55 = 385 rentals China 400 x 0.25 = 100 rentals Rest of the world 1500 x 0.45= 675 rentals. Total 1160 million in theater rentals Expenses: 400 (budget+studio overhead) 300 (marketing and distribution) 150 (shares and residuals) Total: 850 Bottom line: there is no way A2 doesnt overshoot the breakeven point by a few hundred million from theater rentals alone. With high 9 figure sum more in profits from HE, streaming, tv, merch etc. To come later. (Close to a billion) all on relatively small added costs. Disney would have to be insane not to greenlight avatars 4 and 5.
  4. eridani
    Question concerning A2 projections: is every HFR projection going to be essentially variable HFR? (Because of that "double certain frames that require effective 24fps rate" hack?)
  5. eridani
    A question from a newbie: does this list estimate Thursday preview earnings for A2, comparing various other movies and their presales? So, for A2 the estimate range would, according to the table above be anywhere from 14.1 million to 23.9 million for Thursday previews? So one basic way to get a final estimate would be to take all five movies and just calculate the average value? While a more risky but more precise way to go about it would be to pick a movie closes to A2 in terms of audience type and just use its weighed value? Did i understand all that correctly?
  6. eridani
    Is a 4k laser barco alchemy projector likely to have variable hfr capability? I ask because i want to see A2 in varauable hfr format but cinemas arond my parts are not forthcoming with details about their projections. So the aforementioned is as most detail as i can get about best projection conditions available.
  7. eridani
    I remember cameron once said one of the sequels would visit other moons in the star system. So at least the setting might be different.
  8. eridani
    Sooo, taking JWD as the closest match, are those comps suggesting a 180 million OW?
  9. eridani
    And the restrictions are looking to stay in place for a few months, until the situation subsides? I wonder if there are higher chances for A) A2 to get released in mid december B ) A2 to get released after more theaters open, with the distributor hoping several months of delay won't impact sales as much as a release in the middle of a covid stricken market would? or C) A2 wont get a wide release at all. Not due to politics but due to simply not making financial sense to try and market a wide and expensive release in such covid constricted and unstable market?
  10. eridani
    Are Recoms actual, independent sentient creatures? Or "vehicles", to be mind controlled by other creatures (humans) via some sort of a neural link?
  11. eridani
    So... are you suggesting that actual earnings potential for any movie that opens in mid december in china is going to be at approximately 30% of what it would have otherwise earned, if there was no covid situation? So, for example, if Avatar 2 was to earn 500 million if there was no covid, it is on track to earn around 150 million now? (figures are just illustrative, i don't mean to prejudicate how much it would have earned)
  12. eridani
    I guess no one can know yet enough to answer my questions, but I still have to wonder will Avatar 2 have: Spaceship scenes/orbit entry scenes? Humans piloting avatar creatures as a meaningful plot device? (so not just a token scene) A large number of scenes dealing with the plot from the human perspective? A mass battle scene involving dozens of human vehicles/large mechs/aircraft (not just seacraft)
  13. eridani
    Previous trailer wasn't played much in cinemas. But that may be precisely because new trailer was waited for. We'll see soon if theaters will switch straight to newest trailer.
  14. eridani
    Domestic opening anywhere from 100 to 250 m. Legs anywhere from x3 to x5. Very hard to predict. Overseas is a bit easier to predict, though. Should be from x2 to x3 of the domestic.
  15. eridani
    Films that don't get released in china usually have one of the following elements: They are of supernatural/fantastical superhero type They are showcasing social themes/values which are deemed not positive in China They are showcasing US military/politics/wealth/power symbols They feature authors or crew which have made public statements deemed unsuitable to China. They contain depiction of Chinese culture/history that China has deemed unsuitable. So yes, a lot of movies do not get released. But if movies are not touching those points above they have better chances of getting released. Luca, dune, encanto, batman, jungle cruise, f9, quiet place 2, free guy etc. Those all got released. Avatar seems quite along the line of some of these. Dune being the closest example. No connection to today's politics or even historical timeline. Simple good Vs evil storyline. I'd say chances are over 50% avatar will get a release.
  16. eridani
    As a fan of the first movie and a person who thought the first movie's teaser and trailer did a good job - I can't say the same for these new teaser and trailers. First movie's teaser allowed the viewer to piece together a plot from the imagery. It presented the viewer with a trip to another, new world. And to a big conflict between humans and some weird blue people. The second movie's teaser has none of that. It barely has a structure. With just various shots cobbled together for very little effect when it comes to plot or the scale of the movie. First movie's trailer was basically the same as the teaser but longer and with dialogue, to sell better both the plot, the scale of the battles and the stakes in the film. This second trailer of the sequel has none of that. No plot. Again the same idea as in the teaser - just a bunch of shots of blue people. Humans are almost not existent in the trailer, even as villains. That seems like a big mistake, marketing wise. Unless they plan to have yet another trailer, both plot heavy and heavy of epic battle shots - the marketing of this film will be the one to blame for the possible weak BO results.
  17. eridani
    GMA premiere points to a deliberately chosen audience. https://www.similarweb.com/website/goodmorningamerica.com/#geography women who were teenagers at the time avatar 1 came out in 2009. Now, when avatar first came out, there were exit polls saying men made up more than half the audience. But I wonder if that changed over all these years. Maybe indeed women are the biggest single demographics by now. Also, being a sequel to avatar there might not be any references to what its director did. But if there is one, it's gonna be titanic.
  18. eridani
    Another big issue is that the teaser was aimed at avatar fans, and not the rest of the audience. It would have been better if teaser was trying to sell the movie to the folks that haven't ever seen avatar in theaters.
  19. eridani
    So it seems the second movie will gloss over the initial return of humans to Pandora and Navi resistance to that? And it will basically have the same setup as the first movie? In so much as humans having built up a stronghold and conflict re starting from there? We're Navi sitting on their butts while humans were coming? Or did they try to fight the humans right from the get go and simply lost? If the latter is true, then what can help Navi turn the tide of the war later on, when even more humans wih heavy equipment have already landed?
  20. eridani
    That comparison with bp2 marketing shows the issue. Avatar had its teaser 7 months before the premiere. Bp2 had it 5 months in advance. If indeed avatar trailer is going to come just a little over a month before the premiere, then that means the period between the teaser and the trailer for avatar is going to be 6 months, while for bp2 it is 4 months. That's a 50 percent difference. On top of that, bp2 teaser is structured more like a proper trailer. It's longer, it shows off many different locations, it shows off action. Avatar 2 teaser is much more teaser-y. Shorter, light on action. Bottom line, avatar 2 marketing should have included another trailer to come sometime in late August. Action heavy, out of the world visuals, something to intice the people who haven't seen avatar 1. Because teaser was for old avatar 1 audience. But the new audience should also get something in advance. Before this last trailer thats obviously going to come with bp2.
  21. eridani
    Agreed. Waiting for black panther to feature the trailer would be way too late. It almost feels as if they are experimenting with marketing for this film. Experimenting on a billion dollar movie. Eh.
  22. eridani
    It's late September and still no proper first trailer? I must say Avatar 2 promo campaign is one of the stranger ones...
  23. eridani
    When might the first proper trailer come out? One would think there would be two proper trailers... If last one comes out a month before the movie, then the remaining one should come out at least 3 months before the last one. Which would mean around now. Any day now.
  24. eridani
    The way I'm reading his comment is that he'd very much like to direct number 4 himself, but as the future is not set, who knows what can happen. But, indeed, as he didn't mention number five specifically, it does sound as if he's not terribly keen to do the fifth one himself. (maybe he's not as satisfied with the script of number five?) Or maybe he's just figuring he'll be too old/exhausted by that point to do two big movies in parallel, so he'll be satisfied with directing just one, 4th one, in parallel with someone else directing number 5. (don't let it be Rodriguez, though. His Alita was competent overall, alright, but there were definitely parts of it where the director could not care less as to how to stage a shot)
  25. eridani
    To me it sounds as if avatar 2 story starts after humans have already attacked pandora in an counteroffensive. If so, that's a pity. I wish the story showed the initial counterattack. Then again, i wished the first movie showed initial contact of Navi with avatars, instead of starting a few years after that event.
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