eridani
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Everything posted by eridani
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I was using 25% weekly drop offs and got a 682 total. But is 25% unrealistic in the long run? -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
eridani replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
speaking of Canada and US, is it possible to get exact earnings for Canada (or US) only, and not just this lump sum for both countries? I know they're considered a single market, but someone somewhere must have such data as well... -
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
eridani replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
I am confused. 2 shows per day per theater then? Surely not 2 shows per day per entire China? -
They should not have to come up with a new plan. Just stick with the old one. Start filming and working on parts 4 and 5 immediately. Paralelly, Finish part 3 and release it in 2024. DO NOT delay any sequel any more. Release part 4 in 2026 and part 5 in 2028. Make sure part 5 is a hard ending and a definite conclusion of the story. Trim the sequels so they're under 180 minutes in length. It will help psychologically with the general audience. hire someone else to do new original music for the sequels.
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I knew it. "six or seven years". I knew it there would be yet another delay. Most probably well see part 4 in 2027 and part 5 in 2029. Mark my words, the terrain for a delay is being prepped.
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Horner was really one of a kind. Zimmer was just as good up to a point, but he's been trippin for the last 15 or so years. Not sure who's left, capable of even appproaching horner. Michael giacchino might be ok. Clint mansell might be able to surprise. Heck, even junkie xl might not be a bad choice. Maybe even BRian tyler.
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Horner was really one of the kind. Zimmer was just as good up to a pooint, but he's been trippin for the last 15 or so years. Not sure who's left, capable of even appproaching horner. Michael giacchino might be ok. Clint mansell might be able to surprise. Heck, even junkie xl might not be a bad choice.
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Does anyone have numbers for box office sales of Avatar 1 and 2 (so far) for Canadian market only?
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$38,999,999
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Ash people? That does sound a lot like fire people. Will Aang appear in one of the sequels?
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I find it incredible that A2 is going almost twice as well in France than it's doing in the UK. What is the reason for that? (for A1, France did 20% better than UK) Are movie tickets in UK much more expensive? (but if the above applies, then the drop in audience number would somewhat be compensated by higher earnings per ticket) Has the standard of living really dropped that much more in UK recently? Have the reviews really been that savage in UK, compared to France? Or is there some other reason?
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Can someone point out to me where the movie explained why does Eywa activate animals in swarm mode against humans only in the mountains? Why doesn't it happen in other parts of the rainforest? (the train through the forest) why doesn't it happen anywhere over water? (whalehunters) Just what needs to happen to trigger swarm mode? Is it a specific number of humans? their concentration needs to be high enough? They need to destroy enough life (plants) in a given period of time? I missed those details in the movie, if they were ever explained. I sort of get how humans circumvented the swarm when they came down to Pandora for the second time - that even eywa's swarms were futile against such firewalls clearing acres and acres of flora and fauna. Perhaps that was a missed oportunity, for the film to explain that eywa's reactions grew milder over time, both due to passage of time (15 years after the events of the first movie) and due to too great losses when eywa tried to fight the humans. So now eywa sends the swarms only sporadically. I wish something like that was explicitly said. Though that too would not have explained why humans simply did not level the whole floating mountains area with ship's engines or nukes or something like that.
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So Cameron corrected himself there and with 10th highest grossing movie to break even we get 1.5 billion required gross to break even. That still doesn't necessarily tell us everything because A LOT of the times hollywood media and perhaps even professionals will refer to breakeven point based JUST on theatrical grosses. Many films have been proclaimed as financial flops even before they've started their home entertainment /streaming/ tv earnings. It's possible, though I don't know how likely, that Cameron too is doing the same, when talking about breakeven. That he might be refering just to theatrical revenues to break even. If true, and if the breakeven point is 1.5 billion, then that might mean total costs of the movie might be around 900 million. A personal estimate follows of 900 million cost breakdown using 460 million rumored base budget. 460 m base production budget 40 m studio overhead 160 m worldwide prints and ads 90 m video/HE market costs 40 m participations 40 m residuals 70 m interest
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21 Wednesday for A2 is again a decent notch up from R1. So, some 5 million more than R1 during these pre-new-year weekdays. And if a similar difference is applied to the four day weekend to come, could it be pointing towards a 72 million four day weekend for A2?
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https://deadline.com/2020/04/2019-movie-profits-top-films-avengers-endgame-russo-brothers-data-1202919361/ I'm using the above article and its numbers to try and scrape up an interpolation estimate for A2's costs and earnings, for everything on top of the BO gross earnings and the estimated/rumored 460 million production budget. This is a fairly conservative rundown. A2 may well go over these figures, so i may do another run of these numbers later on. 1900 m global BO 550 m domestic 160 m china 1190 m other OS domestic rental 313 m china rental 40 m other OS rental 487 m total theatrical rental: 840 m worldwide home entertainment 250 m global TV net 250 m total revenue 1340 m *** net production cost (with overhead?) 460 m worldwide prints and ads 150 m video costs 85 m participations 50 m residuals 40 m interest 60 m total costs: 845 m studio profit (before tax) 495 m cash on cash return 1.71
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Is 20 to 25% off monday plausible? Or will it definitely be sub 20m?
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Shouldn't the actuals for monday be out already?
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So with 4 day being 90 amd 3 day being 64, that would suggest monday is 26 million? But didn't Jatinder mention 30 or over for monday?
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So those 30m predictions for sunday can't possibly be jokes?
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So, given the storm AND xmas, are saturday NUmbers expected to be weaker than Fridays? And then are sunday numbers expected to bE somewhere in Between of friday and Saturday?
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What's a better way to experience the movie in 3D? large IMAX auditorium with two previous gen 2K projectors (xenon lamps) or "regular" large screen auditorium with a single 4K laser projector? If you have experience with those two types of projections, please vote by using Leo Di Caprio thanks emoji for IMAX option and Stanley Tucci astonished emoji for the 4K option. Thank you.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
eridani replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
No way to know precisely. Studios keep all expenses secret. Its only third party estimates that appear in the media. Like that recent budget estimate of 460 million. Sometimes such estimates are based on actual leaks. Advertising budget is usually even harder to estimate. Then there are overhead studio costs. (We cant know if those are part of the budget estimate) And finally there are creative shares and residuals. Those are percentages of earnings but again, exact percentages are kept secret. -
Haven't seen the movie yet. But from the reactions i am reading, i am getting a feeling that Jim may have made a few crucial decisions script wise that have negatively affected the box office. 1. Splitting the plot of the initial second movie into 2 movies. Thus giving us 4 sequels, instead of 3. That may have resulted in Way of water not having as satisfying ending as possible. 2. Desire to put his personal interests as centerpieces of the movie. One being family dynamics and kids, the other being the underwater setting. While neither is inherently bad, i am getting a feeling too much of the film is dedicated to those, without actually pushing the plot forward. Possibly to the point where the average audience might prefer the movie to have 20-30 minutes less worth of those scenes. 3. Too much focus on Navi. Or not enough focus on humans. That might result in plot not feeling epic enough, if the audience is always watching the same characters. Water setting may also be contributing to that, as water offers inherently fewer details, compared to jungle and especially floating mountains, for epic vistas. Anyway, as i said, havent yet seen the movie so ill be interested in seeing just how far i'll be from actual issues and potential issues of the movie. It would be sad if part 2 ends up being the weakest of all avatar movies. Especially if it ends up hurting the 3rd movie and even possibly causing 4th and 5th one being cancelled.
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Japan is also experiencing another Covid wave, with currently 0.1% of Japan's population being diagnosed with Covid every day, and the number is still currently going up. That's not helping A2 numbers in Japan either.
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How is it not gonna make top 10 ww? To make top 5 it needs 1.917 billion. 140 ow in usa times 4.5 (quite conservative) gives 630. Times 2.4 for avatar's domestic to international ratio (without china) Gives 1510. Plus China's 150. Minus Russia's 100. Gives almost 2.2 billion. Even with a domestic multiplier of just x4 OW it seems likely to me WW total shiuld be enough to do little over 1.9 billion and make the top 5 worldwide.
