vafrow

I posted this in another thread, but, for this decade, I think a few films have reached 52 days (Black Panther, Avengers and Incredibles 2 I believe). It might have a chance at matching those, which is impressive as each of those opened to double what Aladdin did.

I know the last one did well at Christmas, but it feels like this film could have been pretty dominant if released next summer. I think it will do well regardless. Probably won't duplicate the last one in terms of success, but, the simple, family oriented premise should take it comfortably above $250M domestic, and probably above $300M. It's really a franchise tailor made for The Rock, that taps into his action and comedy personas.

It's at 39 straight days over $1M, and should comfortably stay there this week. If it can do so for next week as well (which it should, but guaranteed), it should get to 52 straight days at that level before. That would match Black Panther and Avengers from this decade as longest streaks from what I can see.

A video game franchise that is built largely on its over-the-top violence to the point where many of its game designers are suffering from PTSD, is not the likeliest candidate to overtake superhero films as the four quadrant industry behemoth, but, you may as well have dreams. FYI, this is from someone who loved the games from the 90s, and thinks it will probably do well as a niche film for its core market.

Yesterday has a great weekend. Estimates kept on climbing up. If it can leg it up to a $70M domestic, it'll be a solid win for Universal.

They usually don't update between the Saturday morning update and the official estimates Sunday morning. When there's a big movies opening, they'll sometimes add an update I think, but this is a pretty ho hum weekend in the grander scheme.

What hurts Yesterday's chances of a strong word of mouth run is that the big blockbuster coming out in an couple of weeks is also very musical based. It doesn't offer a counter programming angle in that regard. Plus, Aladdins success has been partly driven by the same. Throw in Rocketman, and it's been a very musical based summer. I hope there's room for this to succeed, but it has its work cut out for it.

I think a number of films are holding screens this weekend to have easy dumps to clear space for FFH on Tuesday.

Stronger than anticipated for Yesterday. Would ve nice to see something success for an original concept

With regards to performance this weekend, Monday is a statutory holiday in Canada. Sunday will probably be bumped up a bit. As for Avengers, that Friday total is not going to be enough. It's going to need to perform better overseas for it to get over the line.

I checked my local 8 screen theatre for the weekend, and it seems they opted for Yesterday over Endgame. It's hard to blame them. The upside on this re-release seems limited. What interest is there would disappear once FFH releases in a few more days.

A sleeper indie could do really well right now. Something like Booksmart or Late Night could have had much different fates if they waited until July.

The bar to make the top 10 will probably not be that high near the end of July. TS4 is the only June release that will still be in the top 10. By tje end of the month, the big releases will all stay ahead of it (TS4, S:FFH, TLK, OUATIH), but outside of that, there isn't much that willingness be around unless they happen to resonate and have decent legs (Annabelle, Stuber, Crawl, Midsommar). From the latter group, I think by the end of the month, potentially Midsommar and Stuber may still he outperforming Aladdin. There seems too be very few limited releases on the radar that can break out and get into the top 10 this year. Last year had a bunch of those that don't seem to be around this year. I think Movie Pass being around helped bump up something smaller films.

Someone commented on the weekend thread on this, but I thought I'd post it here, how many weeks do people think this movie will stay in the top 10? I think it will stay for the month of July. August gets tricky, as there's a lot of smaller wide releases. From what I checked, the last Mayan release film to stay top 10 for at least 10 weeks was The Avengers. May is probably the hardest month to release a film and have that type of longevity due to the volume of big budget films that get released. If it keeps its drops at 25-30% though, I don't see why it can't.

The fact that it's still in the top 3 at this stage keeps it pretty safe to have low drops week to week. It survived the crazy June with so many widespread releases, that it'll hold its screens pretty well in July, which lacks the family fare. The June disappoints will all be dropping screens, and theatre chains will probably look at Aladdin as once of them safer bets.

I think the casting ended up working really well, despite all the initial concerns. That said, I think the execution still could have been better and still think that Guy Ritchie remains an odd choice as a director. The world still felt artificial. That's inevitable to some degree, but, I think there was place for improvement here. The success of the film lays largely with how well suited the source material was for a live action remake. It's timed perfectly for nostalgia purposes. It's such a four quadrant movie. It's also hard to criticize Disney decisions on this, as it's clearly resonated with audiences. The fact that it's come through word of mouth, rather than a big opening weekend is important. It shows that they're doing well not just because they have all of this IP, but they know how packages it to audiences in ways they're excited about.

It's not a perfect comparison, but to illustrate that the more cynical and sarcastic property often performs better in the moment, and worse (by comparison) in legacy. Seinfeld performed better in the ratings when they were both on, but it's streaming rights are nowhere near where Friends is. I don't think that's a bad thing. You want popular entertainment to have a mix of both.

I'm the opposite. I don't want to take away from any films box office accomplishments, but I constantly wonder about which films will have the stronger cultural legacies. The Shrek films certainly were made "for the moment", which is what drove their success. Disney made films that were/are more earnest, and look to have longer legacies, but, generally, don't pack in the jokes and gags as much, and usually, not as much fun because of it (again, in the moment). A good example that I've seen articulated is the leading sitcoms from the 90s. Both Seinfeld and Friends were behemoths in their day, and both are burned into the public memory today. But, Friends was always the more saccharine, less cynical of the two, and today, it's far more lucrative of a property than Seinfeld.

People will always expect bigger than the last, which creates disappointment. Especially when the presales gave some hope of bigger numbers. Given how many sequels this year have been significant letdowns from their predecessor, TS4 at the levels its operating at is a tremendous achievement. What's funny is that adjusted for inflation, the franchise is pretty consistent, and based on the very early numbers that have come in, TS4 will probably end up very similar to the rest of the series (ranging from high 300s to high 400s). That type of consistency in a franchise is impressive in itself.

In terms of drop off from I2, it's worth remembering how few family films came out in the months preceding I2. I think Paddington 2, Sherlock Gnomes and Peter Rabbit were the only real family films that came out in the first half of2018, and none were that successful, and all came out months before I2. The market was starved. This year, you have SLOP2 and Aladdin both coming out in the month prior. Plus, there was Lego Movie 2 and HTTYD3 in February. If you are a family with young kids, you've had opportunities to take your kids to the movies this year.

I also can't see him getting this upset over a box office record. Especially since Avatar got a re-release. Disney may not release Endgame anyways, but it would ve silly to not do so because of that.

It's amazing how many screens TS4 is going to have available. Theatre owners are probably eager to dump the June underperformers. A fourth or fifth screen for TS4 is going to be a bigger earner than DPX or KOTM. The 8 screen theatre by my place is probably going to dedicate at least 4 screens to it by my guess. With a short run time, there will be a ridiculous amount of showings.

Agreed. The best promotion for a film is a theatrical trailer on a full screen and surround sound. The problems is when you're showing your film in the best possible format, and people still aren't interested.

With MIB being the latest franchise to fail, I'm hoping that something original breaks out unexpectedly this summer. It's not enough for these franchises to fail for studios to abandon the IP approach, but they need a template for what to chase next. The best bet I can see is something like Stuber. That film getting past the likes of MIB, DPX or even KOTM based on two smaller, but rising stars, and a simple but unique concept may change some bad habits. I'm skeptical, but hope something happens.

I think a Jump Street crossover would have performed better. I think audiences would at least feel like they're getting something unique. This version of MIB comes off as a poor man's version of the original. The problem is that it probably wouldn't have done much better, and if it did bomb, you'd be killing off two IPs.