Doctor Stark
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Posts posted by Doctor Stark
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4 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:
It's a joke, lighten up. Endgame is corporate trash regardless of how long the Russo brothers spent agonizing over whether Iron Man would say "Catchphrase!" when he died or if he would just explode.
Yet this “corporate trash” is going to leave a much bigger footprint on pop culture than the entire Avatar franchise ever will. Nothing against Cameron, he makes great movies. But at least Marvel knows how to get them out on time. No one should need twelve years to make a movie, at that point it is nothing to brag about.
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41 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Honestly, I don't buy the idea of re-releasing Avatar just to reclaim all time grosser title back from EG.
Once EG hit 2.788b and above, that is it, 9years old record of Avatar is down, whatever extra gross after EG beating it is useless.
unless avatar managed to re-release before EG claim the spot.
I think I get what you are saying. Basically that even if Avatar takes it back, it will have lost the luster of the number one spot. Endgame would now be the movie people think of as number one. There would not be enough time to really make people realize or care that Avatar was number one again, so it may not be worth it in the first place. Interesting idea.
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42 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:
Nice to see MCU fans finally coming around.
If only BoT was around when Titanic was doing its insane run. I hope I see another phenomenon like that in my lifetime.
I’d love to see a run like that too.
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15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
To think there was the prevalent thought the drop in exchange rates would be why it didn't match AIW and now that +5 or so percent is the reason it's not at $2.9B already. 😛
This is why people who say exchange rates don’t matter and Avatar is the bigger movie because it came out ten years ago are wrong. Some of the worst exchange rates ever versus some of the best ever.
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3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
China is also bigger because of local. Films have a month to run and screen count plummets hard after the 2 weeks.
The fact that avatar fans think 750m (world record for Hollywood film and way above EG) is somehow easy is hard to believe. 750m is not a bad outcome. Europe will still carry of course.
Of course if Avatar 2 hits 1B in China it's likely to do amazing in DOM and hit 3b. We shall see.
It’s so easy to throw out big numbers for a worldwide total. It’s when you break it down that it gets insane. $4 billion doesn’t sound impossible until you realize $1.1 billion or greater are required in China and the domestic market to even have a chance.
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9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
China if it does amazing might hit 1 billion and HUGE doubt that it will. Legs are super short and I doubt it beats wolf warrior 2.
Personally I think it will do less in dom, insanely less in Latin America, about 3x in China (750m) . I loved Avatar and still think it hits 2B but again according to all Avatar fans 2.75B or less is underperforming. Hence the huge chance of underperforming.
1.5b in China is as likely as 300m
The fact of the matter is that if it does not outgross the first one it is a failure. Period. China is like ten times bigger than back then. That will easily scale linearly, $1.5 billion isn’t even that far on the high end. Jim will show this forum just how small a $2.78 billion gross is in this modern era. Avatar 5 may end up with majority market share out of all money earned by movies in the year it is released. THAT will be an Endgame to witness.
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9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
No matter what happens you are waiting till 2021. 2022 is possible as well what's another year after 6 consecutive delays. Regardless for Avatar 2s sake to best mitigate the serious risk it has of underperforming they need to rerelease the original the same year it's coming out. 4k rerelease is a great idea. Hope it happens and seems like it would help Avatar 2 have a better shot at securing a huge opening. No massive legs this time.
You see, that is where you are wrong. While Avatar 2 will have a massive opening, no matter how huge it is (I’m thinking Infinity War to Endgame level if the trailers are good enough solely due to Jim Cameron and the Jake Sully fanbase), it will have the signature Cameron legs of 5x or greater. We could be looking at $1.5 billion in China and $1.5 billion in the domestic market. $2 billion overseas minus China is pretty easy to do for Jim. I would be shocked if Avatar 2’s overseas total does not beat Endgame’s worldwide total by AT LEAST $500 million. Avatar 2 will have a finale factor opening with the legs of a runaway original hit, like The Greatest Showman. Jim won’t do wrong by us. $5 billies can happen in my midrange scenarios easily. The floor is a bit harder to predict, probably around $4 billion, a modest sum that just barely edges out Gone with the Wind adjusted for inflation. I would not expect a Marvel fanboy like yourself to understand a lot of this and why it is an inevitability. You just enjoy persecuting the enlightened minority.
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3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:
So long as they keep the staggered OS release strategy, then yes.
They need to release in Brazil and others though to ensure the record. I can't imagine them at this point not doing so, but stranger things have happened....
Hopefully. My guess, we get a decently large overseas gross this weekend, enough to get worldwide total to a range of $2.765 billion to $2.770 billion. Maybe a bit below but not by much if so. I agree with others that the new version will probably still be playing after Tuesday, still not 100% on that but I’ve seen AMC say though 7/11. Either way, while the new version playing and keep more showtimes would be more helpful, I could see a fair amount of this momentum going domestically through next weekend with Far From Home. This scattered release could lead to slightly boosted overseas totals for a couple weeks that definitely add up.
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Far From Home’s 6-day barely above Homecoming’s 3-day? Yeah... no.
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I could see overseas exploding based on how Charlie said three territories that combined made $43k last weekend are making $700k-$800k combined this weekend. Obviously the countries that were grossing most of the money probably won’t increase at the same level, but it points to a great increase for overseas I would say.
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
This hour looking even better. So nice to finally get a sick Saturday from an MCU solo.
Edit: I jinxed it, whoops 😓
Still a good hour though.
What kind of finish can we expect for today? 250M+?
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1 minute ago, superduperm said:
So I take it the End Game and TS4 numbers suck since we’re not getting any.
Charlie said a few hours ago he had a bit of trouble getting access to the data. He just probably hasn’t gotten to it yet. I would not read too much into it.
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6 minutes ago, Menor said:
FFH from what I remember is already basically even with yesterday at the same point. Looks like it will get an ok jump
It is even with yesterday’s overall total now, or even with yesterday’s gross at the same point in time?
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I really wonder if this weekend will mirror Endgame’s opening weekend, in that the estimates keep going up and up, defying all expectations. Would be a great way to close out the run, exactly in Endgame’s signature style. Blowing its load in huge weekends, with decent but not great legs.
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17 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:
I now got my hopes up again. I hope everyone here is happy about that.
I keep telling everybody they should move on and grow. Some do, but not us. I think we all need to get a life.
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11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Korea seems like $125k this weekend, last weekend was $30k.
Mexico $400-500k. Last weekend $7k.
Russia $175k. Last weekend $7k.
These 3 will be $700-800k this weekend, compared to $43k last weekend.
This is fantastic, right? It made $1.3 million internationally last weekend, and only $43 thousand came from these places. They are now boosting to over 15 times that $43 thousand amount.
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Does this mean a China re-release can happen?
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22 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:
Both Mackie and RDJ have taken shots at other franchises before so its nothing new. But yeah they better hope Disney is fully committed to the record at this point.
You’d hope they got assurances from Disney that it will happen. Because if not, those tweets may not age too well lol.
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Taopiaopiao is up to 9.1 if it matters. Shows that the word of mouth should stay at this high level.
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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:
Which was more difficult to achieve.
2.78b in 2009 or 2.78b in 2019.
The reality is obvious yet here we are.
Let’s release Endgame during a terrible U.S. recession so that exchange rates are as high as can be, and then see what numbers it can do. Endgame has the advantage of inflation and overseas expansion of course. But those exchange rates were nuts and boosted Avatar’s total by hundreds of millions of dollars. Today’s exchange rates are as low as just about ever, especially in many of Endgame’s strongest markets such as Latin America. Avatar was and still is CRAZY impressive, but let’s not act like it’s a movie from the mid-1900s putting up those numbers. The fact of that matter is that because of 3D tickets and super high exchange rates, Avatar’s total was greatly inflated. Does that make it any less impressive? Not really. But Endgame did sell many more tickets even with the most broad estimates. If the ticket sales were very close you would have a genuinely good point here. Which is more impressive is very subjective, Avatar is not the objective winner that you are trying to make it out to be.
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At this rate Captain Marvel numbers are soon to be a lock. Anyone saying lower than $1 billion at this point are delusional.
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1 minute ago, firedeep said:
I am starting to, just don’t want to set myself up for disappoint.
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Just now, JimiQ said:
Titanic got one
Wasn’t that the first time it was shown there? If true, maybe that is why. Perhaps they only let a movie have one run, an extension sometimes, and that is it.
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19 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Going by the morning numbers, we are heading for 230-240mn OD. Excellent.
700 million+ weekend?
Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Why is legging to the same total better? I agree it is more fun to track over time, but it is not more impressive. Having enough anticipation to open to $357 million is just as crazy to me as a nearly 10x multiplier. Two different paths that led to the same destination. Hell, Endgame got there faster, shouldn’t that be more impressive by some logic?