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Sandro Mazzola

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Posts posted by Sandro Mazzola

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, M37 said:

     

    supernatural-confused.gif

     

    Ok, in all seriousness, I think @Shawn makes a decent case why Lightyear could surprise, but more supposition (gut?) rather than hard data. Think the range is too high on the low end. Something like $70-$100 would cover both the weak signals in hand, and the potential for more. An $8M Wed/Thur and a backloaded weekend, matching Sonic in April, still only gets to $96M

     

    Part of the reason Cars 3 was more backloaded was the higher share of audience was families, per Deadline:

    Seventy-five percent of Cars 3‘s attendees were families, per Disney. ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak drills down to show 54% kids to 17% parents in attendance with those under 7 repping 19% of the kid population. Twenty percent were between the ages of 10-12, while those between 7-9 repped 14%.

     

    ... and given that LY is both in the TS world and essentially an animated hero movie, don't think that family share will match, expecting closer to Sonic tbh

     

    I think that lower could drop to 60 Mem...

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

    DIs look to be split between Burgers and Dr Strange 2

     

    Yep Strange was always likely to pick up some too, the late spring/early summer MCU film of the year has taken a modest boost over the Fathers Day weekend recently. But Strange will have hit that 400m mark by the weekend so I expect Bob's to be the main beneficiary, like Lost City over Sonic2 with Maverick. 

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    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

     

    I personally think Lightyears range is more like 60 - 85M and i also think Dominion wont drop 63%. With the added Fathers Day boost, that would actually be a catastrophic drop and while WOM isnt strong probably, i dont think its so weak as to indicate such a drop.

    yeah I think JW3 will be high 50's and TGM over 40's with Fathers Day boost. Also Bobs Burgers looks to be getting DI pairings so over 2m is pretty realistic imo.

    Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

     

    Feel like Lightyear is gonna kill an otherwise light chance it had at fudging to 100m DOM, with Summer weekdays approaching. Still, Hell of a run and I too think it'll beat Encanto.

     

    I expect it will get a nice drive in bump from Jurassic World 3. Lost City looks like it got about 1.2m from DI last weekend, every little helps.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, M37 said:

    RE: Downton frontloading

     

    One trend I've noted is the post-pandemic market, likely due to a couple of factors, is that the olds have finally gotten on board with buying tickets in advance. Can no longer count on an older-skewing film to have good walk-up sales.

     

     

    Data from a couple days ago, and while that looks like a very good Thu/Fri sales ratio, thought it might be a bit of a mirage, given the age skew the late (7PM) preview start, pushing sales to Friday daytime. Did a spot check Downton sales in the Tampa/St Pete market for Friday

     

    Matinee 1,285
    Evening 980
    Total 2,265
    Mat % 56.7%

    Also, it was fairly obvious for which showings had been put on sale a while go and had healthy sales, and which ones were added later (this week), having very few

     

    One more note: this very well may be old news, but just in case not ... for those of you who track sales manually, noticed today that the Fandango App gives an option to Check Seats, allowing one to scroll through the sales for an entire set of shows at a given location on a single window.

     

     

    Weren't the female olds pretty handy at prebuying tickets Mem? It's the old men that are way more walk up friendly.

    Weekdays Thread (5/9-12) | Strange 13.6M Monday, 12.6M Tuesday, 9.1M Wednesday, 8.1M Thursday

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Taruseth said:

    Those weekdays say nothing and everything at all, it doesn't look like it will completely collapse, but it also doesn't look like it will develop any real legs.

    Could

    Wed be 9.5m

    Thursday 9m

    Friday 20m

    Saturday 30m

    Sunday 20m

    So exactly 70m (-63 %) and it would be at 302m.

    But probably might end up a little below.

     

    I'd give Friday a bit of a F13 boost but I like your Sat and Sun numbers

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted · Edited by Sandro Mazzola

    3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

    Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

     

    Morbius is paired with a reasonably high amount of Drive In pairings with DS2, along with Death on the Nile and some Encanto and Shang Chi. 

    From memory you have the likes of Captain Marvel here:
    https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/04/26

    Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time here:
    https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/04/27

    Wrinkle again here:
    https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/06/15

     

    Dumbo this weekend:
    https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/05/24

    It's not a uniquely Disney thing btw, I think Annabelle Creation had DI pairings with IT leading to a much softer drop than expected, essentially keep an eye on large releases between Spring Break and say, Labor Day weekend, when Drive In's are up and running. If you have a large film releasing you might see older films from the same studio paired with the larger film in an effort to bump the older films gross. Its also considerably more wishy washy than conventional box office gross calculations... In the case of Wrinkle highlighted above, Disney used two DI bumps to push that film over the 100m mark after it looked destined to end up in the low 90's.
    Death on the Nile is at 45m now, don't be surprised to see that post a 1-2m weekend as they try get it towards 50m. Encanto also has 100m in its sights 

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