PlatnumRoyce

Ultron was received better than that: you need to pull archive.org for non verified scores to separate new from old reviews. It had ~85% positive on Rotten tomatoes and ~79% of reviews on IMDB were 7/10 or above (baseline rotten tomatoes audience score uses is 3.5 or above). Similarly (re: other discussions) waybackmache-ing stuff like Thor 2, Iron Man 2, and even Incredible Hulk show significantly higher audience scores that we see today. https://web.archive.org/web/20151115073237/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/avengers_age_of_ultron

yeah, that's a good call. BPWF had a pretty strong looking nomination slate so it's probably very close to a picture nod. I'd also throw in how changes to academy composition really making it appear that you can functionally lock in the top "prestige" international feature to major awards so woman talking (? I know it got a sag nom) or Avatar (given smaller number of noms) was probably the last in. Triangle might have been lower than some films but it presumably had a hard floor after Decision to Leave faded. Alternatively, that could all be completely wrong. What do I know? I forgot that RRR was not in the running for best international feature due to India's refusal to nominate.

So at the end of the day, Woman King ended up properly rated: a really good action movie with Viola Davis being her typical great self...but obviously playing a strong supporting role instead of the lead. It made a decent amount of money and got a decent amount of awards love without ending up as one of the defining movies of the year like Sony was pushing it as. While it's snubbed by oscars totality of awards season places it more in the 10-20 range of films which just seems accurate? It seems like Avatar/Top Gun and to some degree EEEAAO crowded out both Woman King and RRR for genre awards consideration (and relegated Batman production quality to below consideration range)? does that make sense as an explanation?

sort of a random question but any thoughts on using REER as a shorthand for INT "inflation" adjustments? too terrible to be worth exploring or worth it? https://datahelp.imf.org/knowledgebase/articles/537472-what-is-real-effective-exchange-rate-reer

I'm a little bit late here but that was my intent. I saw that you mentioned the raw text list being confusing so I just went 1 to 5, 6 to 10, 11 to 15, etc. It seems in by trying to be helpful I just added an extra headache on your plate. Sorry about that.

The Rock obviously leaked those numbers. The interesting question is if they're wrong. Sony's big Pay-1 deal with Netflix is insanely high (though also includes some library titles) and imply valuation of streaming rights as larger than old DVD revenue (even if that doesn't make conceptual sense). What's the actual streaming rights internal valuation? Isn't this something that's been on the backburner for a while? Cavill clearly rejected a desired 1 day cameo in Shazam due to this + witcher shooting logistics. I don't like to read rumors but I'd vaguely got the sense cavill wasn't really interested in stunts unless he was going to get a longer term commitment out of them. Seems like Black Adam was an x% shot to get it.

Has anyone played around with Movio's weekend box office demographic data? https://movio.co/resources/weekend-insights-20/ I tried to match them up to the weekend's box office to get an implied weekend box office number that was wildly inaccurate this week (saw Violent Night winning the weekend) but decentish last weekend. Should I trust their Tried to see how it would work as a posttrak supplement (using yearly baseline demo splits as a baseline) and I don't think it worked very well. Worth trying again? Citing as it's own implied demo split?

Take another look at GLAAD's "inclusivity in film/tv" reports because they've done the legwork of cataloguing a lot of the change over time which I think you're understating. Look at what you see in their 2015 tv report. If you look at their film reports you'll see similar laments in mid 2010s. Less than a decade ago we got a major "IP" kids tv show (Avatar:Airbender continuation) that was forced to dogwhistle a lesbian relationship with the protagonist instead of openly announce it. Instead of being seen as cowardly, that dogwhistle was praised for You can also just look at political messaging: A decade ago it was seen as a gaffe by the vice president that prodded the liberal American president into explicitly endorsing gay marriage. Today it's being used as a messaging bill to wrongfoot conservative legislators.

Having now seen Strange World, I can say it's a truly terrible movie and I understand why Disney dumped it. Everyone who approved the script should be fired as well as the casting director. It's just all complete crap. They should be embarrassed by everything except the environmental visuals and action scenes. It's truly a strange script that tanks some good work of animators. Despite the trailers/posters, it really doesn't even attempt to be a pulpy adventure film. If you're going to make the kid an explorer at heart rebelling from his dad's farming choices...why have his visual and vocal design completely contradict it? Why not show him being innovative or curious while at home?

Yeah, I assumed that would be a bit too cute by half.

Anyone have an idea how to "adjust" a 5 day OW like this weekend or Homecoming's 4th of July to a rough equivalent of a 3 day equivalent?

Moviegoing seems split 50/50 in general. According to 2 weeks of posttrak data Beauty and the Beast got 36% male, Lion King 47% male, Jungle Book 48%, and according to OW data Aladdin was 59% female with a significant gender gap in approval of film after seeing it. However, deadline notes that Disney went out of their way to sell aladdin to male audiences via expensive marketing tied into sports. So if you expect male audiences to decline from the more male skewing live action reboots, you're seeing a 25% decline in male audiences which means a ~12% decline overall if not counteracted by other forces.

and in 2020 no one called Bad Boys 4 woke?

Not sure how much to read into this (still in early stages of pulling together more demographic reports on films) but it really looks to me as if Strange World is missing kids/families. Lightyear did as well (for that hypothesis) but I also some of the other thanksgiving kids movie percentages seemed to have a soft u-25 percentage suggesting this might be a time of year thing (though if it was would Disney release major animated films frequently at this time)? I mean, obviously, Strange World is mostly just missing everyone. Does anyone know if franchise flops have weird dynamics?

yeah, second is Playmobil at 62% ("100+ reviews") and third is probably addams family at 69% (>1k). At least that was the case in early 2021 and I don't think anything has passed them since. Verified scores have also consistently been moderately off with kids movies presumably due to kids giving animated films an "A" cinemascore grade on average while adults give them lower.

If that's your baseline (250M Domestic), shouldn't you be telling Fiege to run around like Beaker with his hair on fire? Non Marvel post pandemic sequels aren't dropping that much even if we're trying to modestly adjust out some sort of "immediately before endgame" bump for CM. Even cutting 50M from Domestic total and adding a Fast 9 drop only gets you to >275M with It's unfortunate for the film that the show didn't attract an audience but since it's not an immediate lead-in, Disney's marketing team has had a long time to retool their marketing strategy to not rely on the character. It's just the lack of an extra pull for the film not an attack on core reason people are interested in the film (Larson's character).

In their weekend article, Deadline quoted third party data showing Disney's tv ad spending(?) for Strange World basically matching or slightly exceeding that of Devotion and the Menu. It's well below what you'd expect for a big tentpole film. the quorum's tracking of basic film awareness for Strange World had it below the 5 random animated films released in the past year at the same number of days before release. However, their tracking does also show it got a solid final marketing boost. There's really no reason why more people should know 14 days before release that Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile is an upcoming theatrical release than that Strange World is Disney's big new animated feature film.

I sort of like the negative ratings but I'd argue there's a real benefit to treating them as a separate list. For divisive stuff, I think you really want to capture extremely strong positive or negative opinions. I don't really think this is one continuum. I you kill the hate list or demand 1 vote per tv show, just collapse Mando Season 2 into Mando Season 1's location. I just hated how they turned "let's have a Lone Ranger style show" into "we're doing a live action Filloniverse". It's objectively too low but I think this captures a strong negative reaction that I really don't have for something like Boba Fett. In terms of positive ratings it would be just around TFA level. 1. Star Wars, Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, Star Wars - Episode 1 - Pod Racer, Phantom Menace 6. Revenge of the Sith, Battlefront 2 (2005), Rogue One, Star Wars: Rebellion, EA Battlefront, 11. Andor, Attack of the Clones, Lego Star Wars, Clone Wars TV show, Force Awakens 16. That early 2000s Galactic Battlegrounds (RTS), Rebels, Obi-Wan, Episode IX, Boba Fett series (now 21) - Last Jedi HATE list - TLJ Excluding Knights of the Old republic because its combat aged terribly to an extent I didn't play it. Otherwise, I know I would have loved it as an early bioware game. Star Wars Rebellion would probably go ahead of Phantom Menace if I had played it in the early 2000s and I'm sort of reaching to place it where it is because I love the concept but the game really shows its age when I bought it 5 years ago.

I'm a little late to this (and more data showed worse than expected reception) but I want to flag that kids' verified scores just generically suck as a predictor of cinemascore so they're presumably terrible as a measure of "true" audience reception. Look at say Addams Family or Playmobile or even Space Jam 2 to see films whose scores don't match up at all to cinemascore. It's probably just a demographic effect - "online movie reviewers" are a specific demo of mostly young-ish males and actual kids have different tastes (including being overall more willing to give high grades)

The more I see weirdly high (Asian/Native/Other) the more I upgrade the possibility that there's just something off with posttrak's demos post-pandemic. Charlie flagged it's contradicted by MPAA's online poll of people who claim to be moviegoers (2021 MPA theme report).

Is there possibly a "time of year" related reason for Strange World's poor cinemascore? On this vein, I wanted to check to see how demographic breakdowns went to compare to Strange World's 57%. Thanksgiving films: Ralph 2 had 64% over 25, Moana 47% over 25, Coco 59% over 25, Good Dino 49% over 25, Penguins of MAdagascar 58% for the weekend (54 out of 58 under the age of 10).. Compare this to some random kids animated films - 49% over 25 for the bad guys, 33% for Incredibles 2, Brave at 43%, Zootopia at 44% This is a terrible dataset to draw from but I really think my hunch has something to it. Does polling the day before thanksgiving tend to capture a smaller kids audience than expected which in turn will pull down inherent advantage kids movies have over normal films (kids love everything and cinemascore provides no context/genre adjustments for user reviews when generating scores)

So with the success of the Chosen and Andor apparently airing on ABC to goose ratings (in the same way Paramount used CBS to boost awareness of Star Trek Discovery), I have to wonder why we're not seeing mainstream companies trying to use theatrical to attract interest to streaming shows. Sherlock had a big 2016 special that made a couple of million, Clone Wars seems to have been successful, early Pokemon movies put up insane numbers, anime spinoffs/continuations been a solid post-pandemic thing and there were a raft of sneakily massive "Disney channel tv shows turned into movies." Did Inhumans do so badly as to kill off this idea? If you're paying enough on some of these tv tentpoles to be equivalent to a mid budget theatrical film, why not attract attention with paired down theatrical release?

Yeah, but that was before Black Panther was one of the biggest hits of all time. You'd expect that earned interest to be sticky to a certain degree. If you released Black Panther today in same markets and it sold the same number of tickets, it's INT gross would decline by about 5%. Most of the box office decline is driven by a plunge in ticket sales. We can debate why that is but the real story isn't china or exchange rates it's ticket sales.

I really think this is a pandemic story. 2017-2019 shows 2,3, and 5 point gaps in the two different surveys versus 2021's 12 point gap. So is this capturing biases introduced into posttrak or are people overrepresenting theatergoing post-pandemic in telephone polls? Looking at asian/other numbers makes my gut suggest there's something wonky in posttrak. I know movio produces some stuff like this from time to time so that would be an interesting third source to get a sense of what's going on.

Following up on a conversation with @M37 I went poking around in general to compare OW demographic results and the best "final" results I know of - MPA's year end theme reports inclusion of final posttrak data for films in the top 5 of the year. Mildly tangential but I thought it was worth sharing even if I don't have firm conclusions from it. Film with demo data in MPA Theme Report OW % - Final % Male Female White Latino Black Asian Other Asian + Other Time_in_OW_Recorded Spider-Man: No Way Home 4 (from 63 to 59) -4 (from 37 to 41) -7 (from 32 to 39) 2 (from 30 to 28) 1 (from 17 to 16) 5 (from 14 to 9) 1 (from 7 to 6) 6 (from 21 to 15) Saturday am Shang-Chi 5 (from 62 to 57) -5 (from 38 to 43) -6 (from 36 to 42) 2 (from 22 to 20) 3 (from 18 to 15) -1 (from 18 to 19) 1 (from 6 to 5) 0 (from 24 to 24) Sunday am Venom: Let There Be Carnage 7 (from 67 to 60) -7 (from 33 to 40) -3 (from 40 to 43) -2 (from 29 to 31) 1 (from 16 to 15) NA (from NA to 7) NA (from NA to 4) 4 (from 15 to 11) Saturday am Black Widow 3 (from 58 to 55) -3 (from 42 to 45) -6 (from 46 to 52) -5 (from 21 to 26) 3 (from 16 to 13) NA (from NA to 6) NA (from NA to 3) 9 (from 18 to 9) Saturday am F9 -10 (from 57 to 67) 2 (from 43 to 41) -2 (from 35 to 37) 0 (from 37 to 37) -1 (from 16 to 17) 1 (from 8 to 7) 1 (from 4 to 3) 2 (from 12 to 10) Sunday AM Black Panther 0 (from 56 to 56) 0 (from 44 to 44) -1 (from 35 to 36) 0 (from 18 to 18) 2 (from 37 to 35) -1 (from 5 to 6) 0 (from 5 to 5) -1 (from 10 to 11) Sunday AM Avengers: Infinity War 6 (from 66 to 60) -6 (from 34 to 40) NA (from NA to 48) NA (from NA to 21) NA (from NA to 17) NA (from NA to 10) NA (from NA to 5) NA (from NA to 15) Saturday AM Incredibles 2 -1 (from 49 to 50) 1 (from 51 to 50) NA (from NA to 46) NA (from NA to 23) NA (from NA to 17) NA (from NA to 8) NA (from NA to 6) NA (from NA to 14) Sunday AM Bad Boys for Life 1 (from 56 to 55) -1 (from 44 to 45) -2 (from 30 to 32) -6 (from 18 to 24) 9 (from 42 to 33) NA (from NA to 5) NA (from NA to 5) 0 (from 10 to 10) Monday 1917 5 (from 64 to 59) -5 (from 36 to 41) NA (from NA to 66) NA (from NA to 16) NA (from NA to 9) NA (from NA to 7) NA (from NA to 3) NA (from NA to 10) Friday AM Birds of Prey 2 (from 53 to 51) -2 (from 47 to 49) 0 (from 44 to 44) 0 (from 23 to 23) -3 (from 16 to 19) NA (from NA to 11) NA (from NA to 3) 3 (from 17 to 14) Sunday am Avengers: Endgame 5 (from 63 to 58) -5 (from 37 to 42) 0 (from 44 to 44) -3 (from 21 to 24) -2 (from 15 to 17) NA (from NA to 10) NA (from NA to 5) 5 (from 20 to 15) Friday night The Lion King -5 (from 42 to 47) 5 (from 58 to 53) -3 (from 42 to 45) 1 (from 23 to 22) 1 (from 22 to 21) NA (from NA to 8) NA (from NA to 6) -1 (from 13 to 14) Saturday am Captain Marvel -2 (from 55 [sat was 61% male] to 57) 1 (from 45 to 44) -3 (from 47 to 50) 1 (from 21 to 20) 1 (from 16 to 15) 1 (from 12 to 11) 0 (from 4 to 4) 1 (from 16 to 15) "Saturday AM (racial, age), Sunday AM (Gender) Average Error/change 1.428571429 -2.071428571 -3 -0.909090909 1.363636364 1 0.6 2.545454545