Relevation

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank was the only non-IP animated summer release that I could find post-COVID, and that had a 12.39x IM. Elemental will have the Father’s Day bump to I think that gets this up to 13-14x

Yikes. Was hoping it could have a stronger finish given the backloaded initial presales. I still think it could have a stronger than expected IM given the positive audience reception overseas, sooooo 13-14x to $32-45M? Maybe it’s hopedicting idk

So, the general drift I’m getting from the final day of sales is $2.5-3.5M previews for Elemental and $8.5-10M for The Flash?

@M37 Could you make a forecast matrix for Elemental based on the final day of sales?

From what I’ve been seeing it’s been having solid growth from Orlando for the last week. Could it potentially overindex to $3.5-4M?

Over/Under 6x IM?

The fact that it could potentially end up making more money than this domestically is even crazier.

I’m thinking it will. The positive surge in reception and the wild card family factor could result in a Transformers-style late surge, resulting in $3.5M previews and a 13x IM to $45-46M for the weekend. That’s over the $44M that the worst case scenario for The Flash entails.

Holy shit if it did 8 x 5.5 That would literally be low enough for Elemental to open at #1

They’re using the fire dad in the marketing a lot

I don’t actually think The Flash goes that low barring some ridiculous late game free fall, I’m more of the opinion that it finishes with like $70M give or take. Elemental meanwhile I’m honestly wondering if it ends up having a Transformers style late surge and opens to like $50M. The marketing has ramped up a ton, critical reception is improving, and it’s bound to be the most walkup heavy tentpole of the month

Elemental beating the Flash OW club let’s go

I agree with your projected preview range, but Minions had a 10x internal multi despite being a franchise film and having the Gentleminions trend surging sales right at the end. I feel like this should result in Elemental being less preview heavy in comparison. Obviously it won’t be on the level of Inside Out and the Bad Guys both at 20x+ but I honestly think it I could be like 14x potentially? That gives me a… weirdly high weekend of $42M to $56M. Lemme know if I’m off-base here but I just think it’ll be really walk-up heavy even more so than the average animated family sequel.

Is this including EA shows or is this just pure Thursday?

Speaking of Elemental, what internal multi could we reasonably expect there? It’ll probably be a lot less preview heavy than something like Minions 2 at 9.95x, but the summer weekdays could prevent it from getting to the level of The Bad Guys’s 21.38x IM. Something in the ballpark of 13-14x? Which off $3-4M previews gets a weekend of like $41-54M?

That’s good for Elemental, right? That puts it ahead of Indiana Jones’s pace and well ahead of what it was doing yesterday