Relevation

Crazy how I still underestimated it by like $500M lmao

Shrek 5 $900M+ DOM Don’t see anything else with a credible shot tho, not even the Avatar movies

Ah

Wait Inside Out could be going for $120M+ this weekend??? Or am I reading it wrong

I think even with DM4 this is easily going over 4x legs at this point, maybe like 4.5x Week by week breakdown $255M OW $153M June 21-27 (-40%) $105M June 28-Jul 4 (-31%) $68M Jul 5-11 (-35%) $48M Jul 12-18 (-29%) $36M Jul 19-25 (-25%) $32.5M Jul 26-Aug 1 (-10%) $22.8M Aug 2-8 (-30%) $16.4M Aug 9-15 (-28%) $11.3M Aug 16-22 (-31%) $8.49M Aug 23-29 (-25%) $12.74M Aug 30-Sept 5 (+50%) $6.11M Sept 6-12 (-52%) $3.48M Sept 13-19 (-43%) $1.15M Sept 20-26 (-67%) $0.34M Sept 27-Oct 3 (-70%) ~$500K rest of run $780.81M TOTAL DOMESTIC 5.064x LEGS Ok maaaaaaaaybe those 31-35% drops against DM4 were a bit optimistic but still, nearly $800M DOM against a legs breakdown that is mostly realistic imo is actually insane! Once it’s past DM4 it has a clear and wide open runaway for the whole summer boosted by D&W double features and Labor Day, for a ton of sub-35% drops back to back to back and therein inflating the overall finish. The other Pixar movies like Incredibles and Finding Dory had tighter family competition deeper into the summer that just isn’t there for Inside Out 2, so honestly? I would take the over on $700M and maybe closer to $725M, there are no breaks on this freight train

I guess that and Michael can round out the top 5 at $900M-1B apiece

Top 3 next year is pretty clearly Minecraft, Zootopia 2, and Avatar 3 imo A Minecraft game adaptation casts an unbelievably wide audience net, everyone in the world knows what Minecraft is and it has a Mario level fanbase, $180M OW and $600M+ domestic I think is feasible with a worldwide total north of $1.4B Zootopia 2 is a Disney animated sequel to an acclaimed original, and I’m convinced at this point that every single one of those will be straight money printers top to bottom and easily clock a top 3 of the year finish, $225M 5-day opening to $450M+ DOM and $1.25B+ WW and Avatar 3 is an Avatar movie, no shit its gonna be a huge colossal tidal wave. The biggest movie of the year discussion has never been easier, $135M OW to $650M+ DOM and $2.3B+ WW

The way I tend to generally look at it is T-0 (day of) - walkups, same day sales, where all movies are supposed to surge T-7 to T-1 - last week late pace, where general audience movies usually find their stride and start going up considerably D5 to T-8 - bottom of the U curve, low sales volume throughout unless movie is huge D1 to D4 - early initial sales rush, when the hardcore fans buy tickets and the built in interest is tested

Hey yooooo my comp average was actually almost spot on in the end let’s go

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 06/20/24 GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW - 150 tickets sold The Bikeriders - 38 tickets sold The Exorcism - 11 tickets sold COMPS GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW 1.09x of The Chosen: Season 4 episodes 1-3 ($1.57M) 1.92x of Ordinary Angels ($548K) 2.05x of Spy x Family Code: White ($1.37M) AVERAGE: $1.16M (do not take this seriously whatsoever lmao) The Bikeriders 0.30x of Civil War ($875K) 0.73x of Argylle ($1.24M) 0.73x of Challengers ($1.17M) 1.52x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($1.29M) 1.73x of Drive-Away Dolls ($777K) AVERAGE: $1.07M The Exorcism 0.30x of In A Violent Nature ($122K) 0.65x of Imaginary ($469K) 0.73x of The Watchers ($733K) 0.85x of Immaculate ($465K) AVERAGE: $447K Pulled these numbers last night about an hour late, but the two major releases this weekend were probably small enough to where it didn't make a huge difference. Anyways, The Bikeriders did pretty fine against the eclectic mix of comps I have for it, with the more walkup heavy action movies and less walkup heavy Indies balancing each other out. $1M THU and a $9-10M OW. The Exorcism did poorly as per usual for horror in my market, but I think I'm gonna shoot lower in my prediction compared to the average because that low comp for In A Violent Nature doesn't give me terribly high hopes. $350-400K THU and a $2-3M OW. Now, as for GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW, I had no clue what this was until I noticed it playing at both my theaters (and my personal rule is if a movie is playing at both my tracking theaters, I have to track it). So, I went ahead and counted up the 6th biggest total for any movie ever at my theater, and 2 of the higher ones were all-day releases. Apparently this is a 2 day Fathom Events concert movie for this heavy metal band called Ghost, that also has band lore and is connected to a web series? I just threw all my ridiculously heavy over indexing comps at the wall here to get some sense, but this release is so odd that I'm not bothering with a prediction here. One for the record ig?

This would give it a fairly likely shot at $700M+ by EOD Sunday, if it can manage $20M THU and a $90M 2nd weekend domestic Global could be looking at $1.35B+ final

I agree +20% on paper seems like way too much to ask for But this movie has so far, turned presales initially pointing to $8-10M THU into $11-12M in just a week of late tracking, turbocharged to $13M right at the end, had the single biggest day walkup increase for any movie ever post-COVID on Friday, and somehow had a THU to TFRI multiple bigger than Elemental, a movie which didn’t even have over a $10M TFRI So like, the crazy unrealistic WTF outcomes that could arise here have basically been happening nonstop with this, meaning who knows?

If it comes in swinging tomorrow with a 20% SAT jump then like what if its starting to break into the $180M range

Super Mario Bros went from $125M 5-day industry tracking to $205M actuals and I thought that would never be topped But Inside Out 2 is quickly moving to be a solid $90-100M above where industry tracking had it

I think it could go even higher We’ve seen with movies like TGM, Barbie, and Mario that if your movie is broadly well liked enough, the legs will come through no matter how huge the OW is. With that said, with how euphoric the audience response is and how typically leggy Pixar movies are $170-175M OW + 3.95-4.0x legs for $675-700M DOM

Man and I thought $40-50M would be an acceptable target 💀 It is the December 20 weekend people you should not be expecting anything to open over $100M unless it’s like a Star Wars/NWH level $1B+ megahit Which ok if that’s what you expect Mufasa to do then all power to you ig

3rd or 4th 3rd??? I think a $50M OD could send it to $165-170M optimistically but $193M+ would be completely busted beyond belief

Inside Out 2 is fantastic imo, top 10 Pixar for me personally (no WALL-E because it’s been long enough since I last saw it to where I can’t give a fair rating) Also every movie here barring Cars is great and at least an 8/10+

M37 said the MTC1 PSM for The Little Mermaid was at $58/tix, and the final PSM for Elemental maths out at about $53/tix. So assuming Inside Out 2 falls within that range, off a 225K finish in MTC1, that puts it squarely on for a $12-13M preview finish. (For the record Minions 2 had a PSM of $60.5/tix, so if IO2 managed that then say hello to $13.6M previews and probably an OW close to Barbie)

$11.75M previews, 11.5x internal multi $135M opening weekend

Been trying not to but I think it might soon be time to drink the koolaid

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 06/13/24 Inside Out 2 - 302 tickets sold COMPS Inside Out 2 2.48x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($11.63M) 2.88x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($10.93M) 4.72x of The Garfield Movie ($9.08M) 9.15x of IF ($16.02M) AVERAGE: $11.92M ($10.55M without IF) Couldn't quite top Bob Marley and Dune in my market, but absolutely stellar showing regardless. Easily became the top selling movie of the year at my AMC, but a confluence of Dune having 70mm at my Emagine theater and family movies performing poorly there for some reason kept it just a bit away. Comp average firmly north of $10.5M, how much higher depends on the extent to which you think IF is a worthwhile comp. Wasn't sure personally so I had multiple averages, but I lean towards having it in because IO2 is growing explosively well this week and I don't see why it can't have kids movie tier walkups like IF. Plus Garfield over-indexed here making IF's under index a fair counteract. Walkups are a fickle business but I think this is truly in for a massive, massive finish. Setting my prediction at $10.5-11.5M THU and a $115-135M OW.

I guess you could say, I had a pretty good box office theory

Open question, could we be in for a weirdly high IM with Inside Out 2 here? Like, the THU:FRI sales ratio at MTC1 skews more towards FRI than Elemental (which had a 12.3x IM), FRI sales are growing at a faster rate than THU, it has the FUNKO event on SUN which is selling well, and it’s a Father’s Day boosted SUN to boot. If the IM conversation starts looking more like 12x or maybe even 13x, then this could be potentially charting for some really really really big numbers.