Relevation

+$5M $9-10M The Marvels, $14-15M FNAF

Gonna wager a guess of $37-39M true FRI that goes to a weekend just north of $100M

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+ – Box Office Update Deadline calling it north of $40M for FRI

Tickets are now on sale for Disney’s Wish

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar (as of 10/12/23) Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor 10/20/2023 Killers of the Flower Moon $33,000,000 – $42,000,000 +11% $110,000,000 – $156,000,000 +8% Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios 10/20/2023 Soul Mates Faith Media Distribution 10/27/2023 After Death Angel Studios 10/27/2023 Five Nights at Freddy’s $41,000,000 – $60,000,000 +13% $76,000,000 – $129,000,000 +13% Universal Pictures / Blumhouse 10/27/2023 Freelance Relativity Media 10/27/2023 Inspector Sun Viva Pictures 10/27/2023 Sight Briarcliff Entertainment 11/3/2023 The Marsh King’s Daughter STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions 11/3/2023 Priscilla $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $10,000,000 – $27,000,000 A24 11/3/2023 What Happens Later Bleecker Street 11/10/2023 The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3) Focus Features 11/10/2023 The Marvels $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 $121,000,000 – $189,000,000 Disney / Marvel Studios 11/10/2023 Journey to Bethlehem TBD TBD Sony / AFFIRM Films

Track THU, FRI/matinee, and FRI/evening separately That way you don’t have to throw out FRI/evening tracking and can continue tracking growth but you can still get a good idea of where this is going

Well this is certainly a way to increase upfront demand plus it’s some well needed promo Pretty much impossible to guess how Thurs ends up looking until we see some numbers tomorrow but this is a very interesting strategy

Looking like $3-4M Thurs with current comps, so it’s prob headed to a $35-45M debut

Took a look back on what Encanto and Strange World pulled for their TUE previews to 5-day opening multipliers, aaaaaand Encanto - $1.5M previews to $40.56M 5-day (27.04x IM) Strange World - $800K previews to $18.86M 5-day (23.58x IM) So with those comps in mind, if Wish sales are exceeding Elemental in comps at all, then it’s in very good shape for a potential $60M+ debut ($2.4M+ with 25x IM goes to $60M)

Neither The Marvels was gonna be pretty close to done by Christmas no matter what, I don’t think it having bad tracking will affect Aquaman

Yeah Freddy’s won’t be super far removed from The Marvels’ debut

That comp would have beyond terrible pace against Marvels since Barbie was relatively backloaded with sales (I:e it went from very good start to $162M OW)

4 hours of sales for one Marvel movie with no official regional updates and this thread has already devolved into CBM doomcasting

We need to make a sworn agreement not to post this to the subreddit

Yeah I was gonna say, if “good walkups” take it to $80M then sales must’ve been dire to begin with and it would probably fall short of Quantumania WW off a higher budget

I don’t really expect sales to emulate that of a $120M+ opener, but I think it’ll end up around there as long as reception is good. Sales will be stifled for the first week because of Taylor Swift momentum sucking up a ton of air, like how Mario opening so huge sucked some of the air out for Guardians 3

Revisiting this post, turns out I was actually a tad bearish on how high comps would be hitting T-7. Pulling the T-7 comps from @Hilts, @Porthos, and @TheFlatLannister, TS:ERAS is coasting around $30-40M FRI as of right now. I’m gonna pull up that lower end to $35M since most T-0 comps have it getting pretty close there, and since comps can’t go down with T-0 I find it very unlikely it’ll fall that low. T-8 to T-7 pace wasn’t very good and unless some serious pace reversal takes place, scenario 4 is very unlikely. TE stabilized against the GOTG3 Orlando comp and the OK Barbie(EA) comps today which is good, but Sacto is still falling and MTC-1 pace is anemic. Saturday sales are also just not great compared to FRI and that could be attributed to lack of demand rather than any other factors since capacity is no longer a problem. I still think the casual Tay walkups later in the week will start coming at some point and the initial volume was sooooooooo high that under $100M feels very unlikely to me. However, $200M+ is totally not happening and Barbie seems like a tough ask. The stabilization in Orlando and OK combined with the general small pickup in sales over the last week is putting me closer to saying Scenario 2 is the likely outcome here, where comps just hold up at $35-40M FRI. However, Saturday being so anemic means it won’t get close to those really high IM estimates I threw out for it. Wagering a 3.25-3.5x range here off $35-40M for FRI, I’ll wager a guess as of now for $120-135M for the weekend.

$200M probably not happening but I still think the casual Tay fans could order their tickets late (due to no refunds) and fuel it to a bigger opening than Barbie $140-170M feels like the range to me

Bro I am not an oracle lmao ($300M TS opening weekend ring any bells?) I just pay attention to the sales in this really great tracking forum and make judgments based on those sales, I can have right and wrong predictions

$15M is obviously excessive given the data we have, but I can’t get the Barbie comparison out of my head. That started off similarly strongly to FNAF and just kept increasing against comps in the face of initial capacity issues. There was a level off eventually but comps got so high that it didn’t matter. Obviously I’m not saying FNAF will open to $150M+ but honestly, I don’t think saying 12.5/100 is that unreasonable of an assertion.

It’s currently outpacing Halloween Ends and Scream VI’s first days combined and comps across the board are pointing to previews in the $8-11M range

Dang it’s less than half of the biggest day one presales for any movie in history If it’s close enough to where that comparison even needs to be made then I think its very likely that the sales will point to a $100M+ debut regardless of how close they are to TET

I think this will do really well. The Renaissance Tour did $300M of business in NA compared to The Eras Tour’s $600M+, so it won’t get that high obviously. But, doing half of a $150M+ opener is still some serious business, and this will have an even higher ATP. Reserving judgment until I see actual sales but for now I’m feeling around a $65-95M DOM OW

Years? UFC already does live streamed fights in theaters all the time, next February looks so dire that I could genuinely see theaters striking a deal to get a one night live-stream of the Super Bowl filmed for IMAX and formatted for PLFs.

Beyonce in Final Talks to Release ‘Renaissance’ Concert Film Through AMC Theatres Following Taylor Swift Deal (EXCLUSIVE)