Relevation

Yeah like I don’t expect that to hold given you’re comparing 9 days to 1, but that is REALLY good if it can hold. $3.79M would be by far the biggest non-Frozen II previews for a WDAS film ever Averaging out Encanto and Strange World’s IMs from TUE to their 5-days gets me around 25x, so if Wish can do that off $3.79M previews, you’re talking a magnificent $94.75M 5-day opening

That Elemental comp is gonna be freakishly huge out of the gate because of the 9 extra days lol Any chance you have a Haunted Mansion comp on hand?

$100M LRF tomorrow?

Mmm idk My math has this reaching 120 flat with $14.5M for Thurs so if this is posting $15-16M for Thurs (not saying it will) then it could reasonably hit 124 if not higher

This feels like a given imo since Wish is TUE previews and an original film At least Trolls told people tickets were on sale from the jump lol

In terms of recent movies, I think A Haunting in Venice and The Creator could be useful as older-skewing/prestige comps to use

Aaaaaaand SCENARIO 1 is the winner! I just overestimated how high the IM would be and underestimated how high FRI would be going into T-7.

Or if you do, at least bother telling moviegoers Honestly the fact that it sold as many tickets as it did in Orlando isn’t bad, it’s just way too early to make any kind of judgment from these sales I wouldn’t put too much stock until like Oct 16 once Disney does their big centennial celebration

A whole 0.16x of Elemental Glorious

Elemental sold 37 on Day 1 so I’m planting my flag down for 25?

Well to be fair, Elemental’s preview number would still take Wish to a very respectable total given how Disney animation is suuuuuuuuuuuper backloaded when it comes to TUE preview to 5-day weekend IMs If comping it gets you over $2M and considering how Disney didn’t bother telling anyone tickets were on sale, I’d consider that a good start

I don’t even know why they bothered launching today at all without telling anyone, just doing a clean launch off the back of their Disney100 celebration on MON seems like a better play

+$5M $9-10M The Marvels, $14-15M FNAF

Gonna wager a guess of $37-39M true FRI that goes to a weekend just north of $100M

Baby, Let The Games Begin: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Film Eyes $40M-$50M Friday, Big Swing 3-Day $107M-$130M+ – Box Office Update Deadline calling it north of $40M for FRI

Tickets are now on sale for Disney’s Wish

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ THE MARVELS Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar (as of 10/12/23) Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor 10/20/2023 Killers of the Flower Moon $33,000,000 – $42,000,000 +11% $110,000,000 – $156,000,000 +8% Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios 10/20/2023 Soul Mates Faith Media Distribution 10/27/2023 After Death Angel Studios 10/27/2023 Five Nights at Freddy’s $41,000,000 – $60,000,000 +13% $76,000,000 – $129,000,000 +13% Universal Pictures / Blumhouse 10/27/2023 Freelance Relativity Media 10/27/2023 Inspector Sun Viva Pictures 10/27/2023 Sight Briarcliff Entertainment 11/3/2023 The Marsh King’s Daughter STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions 11/3/2023 Priscilla $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $10,000,000 – $27,000,000 A24 11/3/2023 What Happens Later Bleecker Street 11/10/2023 The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3) Focus Features 11/10/2023 The Marvels $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 $121,000,000 – $189,000,000 Disney / Marvel Studios 11/10/2023 Journey to Bethlehem TBD TBD Sony / AFFIRM Films

Track THU, FRI/matinee, and FRI/evening separately That way you don’t have to throw out FRI/evening tracking and can continue tracking growth but you can still get a good idea of where this is going

Well this is certainly a way to increase upfront demand plus it’s some well needed promo Pretty much impossible to guess how Thurs ends up looking until we see some numbers tomorrow but this is a very interesting strategy

Looking like $3-4M Thurs with current comps, so it’s prob headed to a $35-45M debut

Took a look back on what Encanto and Strange World pulled for their TUE previews to 5-day opening multipliers, aaaaaand Encanto - $1.5M previews to $40.56M 5-day (27.04x IM) Strange World - $800K previews to $18.86M 5-day (23.58x IM) So with those comps in mind, if Wish sales are exceeding Elemental in comps at all, then it’s in very good shape for a potential $60M+ debut ($2.4M+ with 25x IM goes to $60M)

Neither The Marvels was gonna be pretty close to done by Christmas no matter what, I don’t think it having bad tracking will affect Aquaman

Yeah Freddy’s won’t be super far removed from The Marvels’ debut

That comp would have beyond terrible pace against Marvels since Barbie was relatively backloaded with sales (I:e it went from very good start to $162M OW)

4 hours of sales for one Marvel movie with no official regional updates and this thread has already devolved into CBM doomcasting