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    Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bobzaruni

    1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

    Any idea what the maximum OW might be for Barbie considering the presales? Are we looking at some record-breaking grosses here and there?👩🏻‍💼

    25M and 8 IM would get it to 200M but that's like an extreeeeeme outlier unless it can keep pace and rise and it turns out to be somehow more backloaded

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bobzaruni

    29 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Barbenheimer T-7 Update

     

    Both films just keep chugging along, really going to be a special weekend. Again using spoiler boxes to limit size of post

     

    Charts:

      Hide contents

    Average here is probably a bit overstated, thinking more $9M than $9.5M

    7V5Fx92.png

     

    Even excluding some of the way high comps, average still over $21M

    RmVwLe7.png

     

    Combined, still ahead of Thor/BWPF, putting $30M+ in play

    Kqohex1.png

     

    For Barbie, now this is where things get complicated...

      Reveal hidden contents

     

    Oppenheimer, however:

      Hide contents

    Nothing really of concern here, values are rising steadily as Oppy rides Barbie's coattails. Though due to the heavy PLF draw and older audience, expecting a good chunk of final sales have already been banked, and so not expecting a huge final week, definitely more in Indy 5/TGM/Avatar range, which would land in the ~200K or below final ticket sales for Alpha, which may also overindex (lower PSM). Would think a value closer to $9M (if not below) is more likely than $10M, but the data also supports the higher values at present

     

    However, it is difficult to say yet how wide of net Oppy will cast, whether it will play well to older, casual viewers like MI7, Indy 5, TGM, or have business be concentrated in bigger markets - whether the subject or the director is the primary draw here

     

    What about IM/OW?

      Hide contents

    Want to be clear: even though I've tried above to pump the breaks a bit, there are enough sales that even a "weak" finish is still going to be a massive OW for each for each film, and combined at least approaching the level of BPWF ($181.3M) and Strange MoM( $187.4) even it ultimately falls short (and being in summer, should surpass the $220M/$230M first week totals for both)

     

    The Drafthouse sales numbers for FSS are really good. At T-7, Friday is already ahead of Thursday, with Saturday even higher, for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. Barbie is ahead of ATSV at this same checkpoint, which landed a nearly 7x back in June. The last Alpha weekend numbers I saw (on T-12) were very similar for both films as where Drafthouse is pointing. Oppy is even better, almost close to Avatar 2's ratios, which was similarly driven by high PLF demand pushing sales later into the weekend, and let to an 8x, albeit in December rather than July.

     

    With the caveat that these are both probably going to be early presale heavy films, particularly at Drafthouse (and especially for Barbie where lack of capacity is rolling sales forward), think both films have a good shot at hitting a 7x plus, maybe even 8x or more for Oppy. Do not see any reason in the sales numbers to expect an IM lower than ~6.5x, unless the sales really hit a wall and just don't have much in the way of walk-ups

     

    I'm not going to roll out any forecast matrices just yet, want to see how the weekend sales go first, but I'll just say I think generally we're heading towards at least a high $20M combined preview (with $30M+ total and $20M+ for Barbie in play), Barbie is in range of topping both GOTG3 and ATSV for second highest OW, though I'm hesitant to lean into the $140M or even $150M range yet, while Oppenheimer is solidly climbing ahead of the MI7 range, to more of the Flash/Transformers/Indy 5 level

     

    And finally ::sigh::

      Hide contents

    It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

     

    Also, fun fact (per Reddit!): the highest grossing OW without IMAX is $121.9M, by Mockingjay Part 1, which didn't have them because a Christopher Nolan film (Interstellar) did instead

     

    The highest grossing OW without IMAX is actually The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009)—$142.8M—btw! Mockingjay part 1 is the last 100M opener without IMAX.

    • Like 2

    Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

    Hmm some people are getting revisionist again. 
     

    No one was predicting an opening of this size when the film was announced. There are very few female targeted movies at this level. I don’t think people should be downplaying it already. Opening over $100m would be incredible for this film. 
     

    I’ve already seen some on twitter starting the Oppenheimer excuses early: “3 hour R rated biopic”. Eh, it’s still from Christopher Nolan shot in IMAX with a prime summer blockbuster release date and a star studded cast. 

    I agree but the point about Oppenheimer is right, people who thought it would win in the first place were insane but it could be Nolan's biggest opening outside the Dark Knight trilogy while being his first R-rated film in 2 decades.

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bobzaruni

    37 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:


    Yep, I take Nolan at his word. He says it was a $180M budget for a 180 page script. Tack on marketing and they probably need at least $500M to break even. Similar gross to Tenet would be a flop. 

    If that is the case, then yes. But THR also reported 100M today which is odd. We'll see, some trade will report the actual cost closer to release.

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, ZackM said:

     

     

    Oppenheimer
    Alpha Chain
    Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
               
      Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
    Showings Added 10 21 39 22 8
    Seats Added 1,280 2,521 7,493 4,001 1,053
    Seats Sold 5,216 4,316 4,255 4,348 2,769
               
    7/13/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
    Total 426 1,452 74,294 281,288 26.41%
               
    % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
    # of Showings 3 17 52 116 195
               
    ATP Gross        
    $18.96 $1,408,614        

    Thought the ATP would be higher tbh unless I was being extremely unreasonable. Very good day of sales for both however.

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:


    If people really like it, seems like it will have a lot of sold out shows. Very low showtime count compared to a typical big movie.

     

    There’s also risk that it flops pretty hard due to the long runtime and ultra serious subject matter. People want silly escapism. Steven Soderbergh gave a speech about that years ago. He said 9/11 seemed to permanently alter moviegoing habits. Of course he catered to that audience with his Ocean’s 11-12-13 movies. Lol

    Based on initial tracking, there's no way it flops outright. It could underperform if everything does wrong though.

    • Like 1

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Redolent said:


    Yeah they added a bunch of 3.30am showings a few days ago lmao. And tickets are very expensive but still selling well.

    Yeah, Nolan is very popular here. They had 5 shows of interstellar in a 630 person theatre and they all sold out. They're also showing all his movies from Batman Begins onward from 17-20 as a part of the 'Nolan Film Festival' that the biggest theatre chain is holding.

    • Like 3

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Lucas said:
      Hide contents

    For the longest time I assumed that interview would be the end of the film, it isn't. The line is in the movie and serves a purpose but never used in an attempt to recreate a moment from real life. But the final moments feature another line getting at the same idea that more sounds like something a person would actually say in a regular conversation. Nolan does believe they may have destroyed the world.

     

    Wow. If they pulled the narrative direction of that off well, it could be one of his best ending ever.

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Redolent said:

    Curious to see the worldwide reception for this. It’s smashing presales in the likes of India, Pakistan and in various Middle East countries. Someone on Nolan fans forum mentioned that theatres in Poland are busier than they’ve been for the likes of Avengers or Avatar.


    The premiere and SAG strike has been on the front page of major newspapers here in the UK today which seems like a fortuitous marketing outcome.

    India is going to do really really well

    • Like 1

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Lucas said:
      Hide contents

    We cut back and forth from the two perspectives but that's when it goes more into Oppenheimer's allegiance, basically what you said. The very end of the movie paints a very clear picture how Nolan feels about what they did, it's maybe the most pointed thing he's ever done.

     

    Spoiler

    Don't mean to pry too much but is the ending the 'I am become death' line and if its not too much to ask, what exactly does Nolan express about this at the end?

     

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Lucas said:

    I usually feel pretty certain about Nolan movies whenever I first see them, this is the most I've had to take in and process that I'm not entirely sure about. Mostly in how it flows from scene to scene and how certain characters are handled. About the last hour, that's wwhere a lot of my favorite things in the movie happen, I didn't find it any more "boring" than the rest of it (it's not boring). I think I can see what about it makes them feel like they're checking out a bit, but I found that to be some of the most captivating stuff.

     

    Spoiler

    Is the last part of it 'courtroom drama'/RDJ's character's "anti-oppenheimer" perspective (that's what I've heard through the grapevine)? Also, does it paint the bomb as a 'neccessary evil' or does it leave the judgement of whether it was needed at all upto the viewer entirely?

     

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, M37 said:

    I really can't argue with the updated LRF for Barbie and Oppenheimer (if anything, might be a touch low)

     

    With the caveat that that rates may be somewhat inflated by July 4th holiday effect (deflating sales for a ~week before catching back up), the growth for Barbie from T-14 to T-7 is higher across samples than any major release besides Venom 2 and Minions (even above Mario OD's growth a week from release). Barbie should surpass GOTG3 in total sales in the T-7 update from ZackM for Alpha (130K+ vs 126.7K)

     

    And Oppy is no slouch either, now slightly head of Mermaid's pace at this same checkpoint, on par with Mario,  higher than younger male skewing action flicks like Wick 4 and Black Adam. Seems clear there is a double feature and/or split audience effect here, Oppy riding Barbie's coattails

     

    The good news is that unlike Venom 2, Minions, and even ATSV to a degree, the sales volume is high enough that official tracking sources have mostly sniffed out the pace early enough that (hopefully) enough seats can be allocated to meet the expected demand...

     

    ...which at this point sure looks like the biggest total Thursday preview since Strange MoM ($36M), ahead of Thor L&T ($29M) and BPWF ($28M)

     

    Will post charts & Forecast Matrix once all the T-7 updates are in (may not be until tomorrow morning though)

    You mean combined right? 

    Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

     

     

    it's not anti feminist to say a woman is pretty and gorgeous and they are not forced to say something intelligent in any occasion, red carpets are not that occasion.

      Also in the interviews they are talking a lot about the themes of the movie so i wouldn't say the whole promotion is about clothes. The fact red carpet are just about the clothes..it's not like at these red carpets at Venice or at the Oscars usually stars and directors talk about the great philosophical systems.

     

    Yeah the pink carperts are about clothes cause girls like that but it's part of the conversation about this movie... fast and furious red carpets are about cars but no one says it's sad and they should show more brain and philosophy. Here at least you should have it in the movie. 😅

     

     

    I think they were more talking about how, in public sentiment, Margot isn't being seen as a serious contender for anything whereas everyone is just raving about Gosling 

    • Like 2

    Brazil Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

    BARBIE, NATAL T-7

     

    T-7 Cinemark: 7 showings, 2129 seats, 1237sold (58.1%)

    T-7 Cinepolis: 14 showings, 2386 seats, 862 sold (36.12%)

    T-7 Moviecom: 4 showings, 700 seats, 209 sold (20.86%)

    T-7 Cineflix: 6 showings, 2994 seat, 542 sold (18.1%)

    T-7 Total: 31 showings, 8209 seats, 2807 sold (34.19%)

     

    Comps:

    Fast X (127.08%) - R$11.35M first day, R$134.2M weekend

    TLM (1243.06%) - R$213.55M weekend (LMAOOOOO)

    Indy (924.45%) - R$82.98M weekend

    GOTG 3 (443.99%) - R$16.86M first day, R$163.74M weekend

     

    7sg2ni.jpg

     

    Please for the love of God don't take those comps seriously, remember that the top opener is Endgame with R$102M for the weekend, I just put them there to show how insane the pacing for this movie is right now. It is honestly almost impossible to predict the weekend accurately, this is uncharted territory, this level of kenergy cannot be measured.

     

    I am not giving my own personal predictions, I'm just gonna say that you are all for something very special and I wouldn't be surprised if Brazil becomes one of the top territories for this movie.

     

    EDIT: put the first part in bold for the Reddit folks coming here. No, I am not implying it will open higher than Endgame.

    On a serious note, is allocation going to be a factor in slowing it down or is that a non-factor?

    Brazil Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

    BARBIE, NATAL T-7

     

    T-7 Cinemark: 7 showings, 2129 seats, 1237sold (58.1%)

    T-7 Cinepolis: 14 showings, 2386 seats, 862 sold (36.12%)

    T-7 Moviecom: 4 showings, 700 seats, 209 sold (20.86%)

    T-7 Cineflix: 6 showings, 2994 seat, 542 sold (18.1%)

    T-7 Total: 31 showings, 8209 seats, 2807 sold (34.19%)

     

    Comps:

    Fast X (127.08%) - R$11.35M first day, R$134.2M weekend

    TLM (1243.06%) - R$213.55M weekend (LMAOOOOO)

    Indy (924.45%) - R$82.98M weekend

    GOTG 3 (443.99%) - R$16.86M first day, R$163.74M weekend

     

    7sg2ni.jpg

     

    Please for the love of God don't take those comps seriously, remember that the top opener is Endgame with R$102M for the weekend, I just put them there to show how insane the pacing for this movie is right now. It is honestly almost impossible to predict the weekend accurately, this is uncharted territory, this level of kenergy cannot be measured.

     

    I am not giving my own personal predictions, I'm just gonna say that you are all for something very special and I wouldn't be surprised if Brazil becomes one of the top territories for this movie.

     

    EDIT: put the first part in bold for the Reddit folks coming here. No, I am not implying it will open higher than Endgame.

    Reddit tomorrow: '[BOT] Barbie expected to be the biggest opening of all time in Brazil beating Avengers: Endgame according to thatwaluigidude'

    • Haha 2

    Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

    Gerwig apparently also confirmed in an interview the budget is 145M, not 100.

     

    Makes sense. I mean the money are there, a lot of big sets, costumes, 2 very big stars (plus McKinnon and especially Farrell) and a lot of secondary actors. 

    And all multinominated/winner artists involved in every side of the production so of course this makes you spend more money too. 

     

    Unless the marketing budget is absolutely insane it's 100% making a profit

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, M37 said:

    Alright, time to delve into this a little bit. Gong to be a long post, so putting it behind spoiler boxes to not clog up  the thread. Grab a seat - maybe even a drink or snack - before diving in ...

     

    1. Baseline

      Hide contents

    When I create and post the graphs of all the values vs comps, what I hope to see is 1) a lot of straight-ish lines, indicating pace is matching over time  & verifying comps are appropriate, and 2) the values are mostly clustered together, though some high and/or low outliers are common. For example, here is Oppenheimer as of the T-9/8 round of updates:

     

    1VlAP3T.png

     

    Clearly Denver loves Nolan more than Indy, Jax/Pho/Ral is starting to as well, Orlando isn't as Furious about Oppy, and the combination of post-July 4th and premiere reactions boosted sales (curved up) the last couple of days ... but overall that's a workable chart. Eyeballing approximately $8-10M preview from that (based solely on a visual ballpark guess)

     

    2. Outlier (LOL)

      Hide contents

    Alright, so Oppenheimer preview tracking is fairly solid, still some wiggle room there, but what about Barbie?

    Yeah, this ain't it:

    qPCCTRC.png

     

    Still growing rapidly against basically every single comp, and the spread goes from $15M to over $30M (not pictured), and that doesn't include the >$35M comps that are likely (probably. maybe ...?) not reflective of where this is headed and have been excluded. All we can really glean from this chart is that Barbie is going to be big, really big, but having no idea when and at what value those comps might level off (if not turn down) and possibly converge ... and we're only 9 days away from release

     

    3. Hmm

      Hide contents

    Almost always, a huge opening has to be "4 Quad", that is appealing to both men and women, over & under 25 - its just really difficult to top $100M in a weekend without pulling in at least some decent amount from each of those groups. Oppenheimer is much more a 2 Quad film, (Dunkirk for reference was 50% Men over 25), but those kind of releases are fairly common - have JW4, Indy and MI7 since March - so there's plenty of comps to use.

     

    For Barbie though, there really isn't much in the way of female-skewing big releases (Mermaid is the only one in last 2 years) - which changes the sales patterns, ie when tickets are purchased, and so the comparison at given checkpoints. Plus, even if/when Barbie may level off vs comps, there is an added layer of complexity of limited PLF shows, which will result in a lower ATP and reduce value vs comps


    But, what if instead, sales for Barbie & Oppenheimer were combined and then comped for each sample. This first and foremost mostly eliminates the PLF/ATP issue, since Oppy has those (and is selling very well). It would also mostly correct for the Quad issue, because between the two films now we're now assuredly hitting all of the M/F O/U 25 groupings

     

    4. Well Then

      Hide contents

    Here's how that method looks at first run, throwing a kitchen sink worth of comps at it

    GZH4IyG.png

     

    Certainly not perfect, Denver still going crazy and not even Barbenheimer can match TGM's early sales in Sacto, but overall lines are much flatter (again showing the same curve up in last few days), and while the spread is fairly wide, there's a good amount of clustering in the middle, including with averages. For a backdoor method, might be onto something ...

     

    In particular, found this part of the data interesting:

    bFwrV2Q.png

     

    While there's still a good amount of variation between markets, both the averages and ALL of the Alpha data points - a large sample across many, many markets, and unadjusted - are decently grouped together. (Note: for Avatar 2 comps, would have to adjust $ value down for a lower ATP, but also not expecting nearly the same flat line final week finish, so at this point in the sales run its IMO mostly a wash in actual value)

     

    This grouping by the way, suggests a combined preview in roughly the $26-$33M range - on the level of the MCU big boys of BPWF ($28M), Thor L&T ($29M), and even Strange MoM ($36M) - and if Oppy does indeed stay in the $8-$10M ballpark, that leaves the remaining $18-23M for Barbie

     

     

    5. Ok, but

      Hide contents

    Some caveats

    • There just may not be enough seats for the demand implied by this method and track. We'd have to see showings and seats expanded up to Thor/BWPF level, and also be properly allocated between the two films on individual theater/market level
    • Since Barbie accounts for the majority of sales (1.66x ratio as of last Alpha update), the growth rate curve will be weighted towards however it moves
    • Typically, the number of people who purchase multiple tickets to a single preview night is very minimal, but with the Double Feature meme having become a reality, the combined total is likely inflated by ~5% or so
    • The theory behind the combination method may prove to be invalid, so take it with a grain of salt

     

    tl;dr

      Hide contents

    We're in range, if pace keeps up and there are enough seats allocated, of something in the neighborhood of $26-$33M of combined previews for Barbenheimer, with Oppy grabbing around $8-$10M of that, and the remainder being covered in Barbie pink

     

    GZH4IyG.png

     

    A $200M+ combined opening weekend is very much in play, though will caution that being without good precedent to light the way, cannot be assured pace will keep up and not tail off vs comps in the final week

    Combining them for the 4 quad and then extrapolating from each is really fucking smart. Great analysis.

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