St. Louis, Las Vegas, Chicago are regional small level stuff those don’t matter.
National Society of Film Critics does not have a animation category, or do nominations, or runner-ups, etc. They just announce winners. Heron wouldn’t get anything there. Anatomy of a Fall or Zone of Interest will win best Foreign Film. And winning any of the other categories of Best film, director, or screenplay doesn’t make any sense as a result. It competing with live action movies there that they will always prefer, and honoring Scorsese’s possible last movie (KOTFM) is more important to them than Miyazaki’s possible last movie.
Golden Globes is more like a casual popularity contest. This would be the first time Miyazaki is even nominated and it’s probably only cause it came out in December. High brow stuff like this doesn’t appeal there.
BAFTA is probably an easy win for Spiderverse. Empire Magazine had Spiderverse as their #5 movie of the year, and two time BAFTA winner Daniel Kaluuya (British) is part of the voice cast for that movie, and one of the more prominent characters. Three time BAFTA nominee Daniel Pemberton (British) also wrote the score. I don’t see Heron winning there at all.
Annie Awards Spiderverse will win all the technical rewards, and probably the best animated feature award. Heron will win best director, storyboarding, writing, and best independent film. They have a best overseas animation, and best animation overall category.
Heron can win critics choice for best animated feature. Will it? Don’t know. But it’s more likely than anywhere else.
That’s about how it will shake out.