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  1. Flightless Bird: The Downfall of the Boeing 737 MAX Best Documentary Feature Best Original Song - "Flightless Bird" by Sting (inspiration)
  2. Flightless Bird - The Downfall of the Boeing 737 MAX - Studio: Cookie Pictures Genre: Documentary Director: Josh Kriegman and Elyse Steinberg Producer: Sebastian Peters Original Song: "Flightless Bird" by Sting (inspiration) Budget: $10 million Release Date: March 1st Rating: PG-13 Theater Count: 3,015 Running Time: 88 minutes (1 hour, 28 minutes) Synopsis: Chronicling the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX model aircraft, this documentary examines the history of the aircraft, the technical flaws that brought its prospects to a screeching halt, Boeing's disregard for safety over profits, and the role lax government regulation thanks to lobbying played in one of the biggest and deadliest debacles in any commercial industry, period. Plot (about 6k words):
  3. Cookie Pictures A n i m a t i o n presents... A new addition to Cookie Pictures' Y8 release slate, Florence is an adaptation of the award-winning visual novel of the same name developed by Mountains and first released by Annapurna Interactive in 2018. It tells the story of Florence Yeoh, a 25 year old Chinese-american woman who've never felt fulfilled in life and never had her first love. Pressured by her mother to find a husband thinking it'll solve all of her problems, Florence's daily, lonesome routine soon gets the best of her, and at her lowest point she meets a street cellist named Krish who brightens up her life in unexpected ways. "Florence is all about our protagonist on her quest for self-fulfillment," Cookie Pictures President and CEO Sebastian Peters spoke of the project. "It's not a story about any grand trials or tribulations, but what makes it special is its endless commitment to charm and an ever relatable perspective on love, family, life goals and how the passage of time affects all of us. It's a short game, but one we've been compelled to experience over and over again." Florence is directed by Pixar story artist and writer Madeline Sharafian (pictured far left) who directed the SparkShort "Burrow" released in late 2020, and served as a storyboard artist on "Coco." The voice cast consists of Jessica Henwick ("Marvel's Iron Fist," "Love and Monsters") as Florence, Himesh Patel ("Yesterday," "Hilda and the Midnight Giant") as Krish, and Kelly Hu ("American Dragon" trilogy) as Florence's mother. The production budget is expected to land at around $15 million, owing to the smaller scope of the animation, and while a release date isn't set for the film, the studio is hoping to have it out either in time for Valentine's Day or the Christmas holidays, whichever would be most beneficial. Florence is set to be another step for the animation studio into smaller, self-contained productions in between larger scale work such as the Hilda series. After long droughts in between releases, Peters hopes to put the studio at the forefront of the overall larger Cookie Pictures Group and produce multiple films of varying budgets and sizes each year. Starting in Year 9, along with Hilda and the Black Forest, Cookie Pictures Animation plans to produce two additional films which will be discussed at a later time, adding up to three releases per year going forward.
  4. Sweden's plan is for everyone above the age of 18 to be offered vaccination before the end of June as well.
  5. This was buried in a Deadline Q&A about The Little Things: https://deadline.com/2020/12/the-little-things-john-lee-hancock-30-year-odyssey-denzel-washington-rami-malek-jared-leto-hbo-max-controversy-1234660476/
  6. Ranking films by return of investment (rounded to nearest full number): Formula: (Net profit or loss / production cost) x 100 Broadway Selects: Beetlejuice - 2,400% The Last Fifer: Portrait of a Clarinetist - 1,533% Broadway Selects: Burn This - 1,400% Ms. Blakk 4 President - 853% The Gift of Life - 489% Snow Leopards - 454% Megalo Box - 387% Looping - 383% Tony Hawk's Pro Skater - 343% Countdown City - 315% Snakes - 306% Hilda and the Midnight Giant - 301% The Final Cut - 299% Roman Fever - 289% Fatal Attraction - 286% Should You Imagine? - 259% Loving a Shadow - 249% Adam & Cindy - 233% The Ends of the Universe - 210% Birdwing - 206% Laika - 203% Pillars of Eternity: An Ancient Legacy - 203% The Scavenger Wars Part III - 193% Conventionally Wiser - 191% Tongues - 186% Dear Evan Hansen - 182% Adult Swim Bomb Scare Non-Fiction Documentary for Theaters - 170% Starlight - 166% Green Lantern Corps: Home - 164% Carver - 157% Temple Run - 152% Making Waves 2: The Wipeout - 140% Sir Thymes Time 2 - 140% Father II: The Resurrection - 137% Vengeance - 133% Dual Consequences - 120% The Scavenger Wars Part II: Director's Cut - 120% The Long Way Home - 119% The First Month - 113% Attack on Titan - 111% Scooby-Doo: Cult of the Creeper - 110% Banjo-Kazooie - 108% Yang - 97% Notorious - 91% Toons v Reality - 88% Cruis'n USA - 87% In the Doghouse - 79% Lena and the Featherweights - 73% Fish Fry - 71% Until Dawn - 70% Father Knows Worst - 65% Call of Duty: Eye of the Storm - 64% Monster Bug Wars - 54% Dawn of the Last Six - 48% Plastic Man - 46% Finders Keepers - 39% Hearts of Fire - 39% Beyblade: The War Unleashed: Let it Rip! - 33% The Layover - 30% The Exchange - 29% Hoops 3 - 22% Outside the Law - 20% Vixen and the Flaming Feather - 20% Flying High - 19% The Perfect Life - 16% Dazzling - 14% 3:32 A.M - 10% Hypercompetency - 7% Higher Ground - -2% I'll Always Be There - -3% Tower of Babylon - -6% Out on the Lake - -8% The Written Word - -21% Red Flavour - -23% Love After Loving - -34% Columbine - -41% Looney Tunes: The Classics Remastered - -53% Whoopsie-Daisy - -57% American Barbeque - -61% The Turkey Squad - -62% Scout's Honor - -64% Wii Play - -67% The Disappointment - -80%
  7. The Pfizer vaccine is set to be approved by the 29th at the latest, but some sectors want it out earlier since it's already been approved in the U.S and UK.
  8. @CayomMagazine Breaking news: Cookie Pictures has found its queen. Singer, dancer, stage and film actress Ariana DeBose has signed on to take the mantle of Queen Tamara of Khouga in future The Scavenger Wars films, the studio confirmed in a press release sent out to various news outlets today. DeBose, having featured in Hamilton and the upcoming Steven Spielberg re-imagining of West Side Story, will star as the kind and stubbornly brave royal in future films after actress Letitia Wright was let go from the role earlier this year. This also marks the third singer/actress combo to land a starring role in the massive sci-fi franchise, joining Naomi Scott and Melissa Barrera, the latter set to make her debut in the fourth chapter releasing in Year 9. Following an extensive search that included numerous candidates, the Tony Award-nominated DeBose quickly became the frontrunner due to her "unique and charming energy," which franchise producer and studio CEO Sebastian Peters really hopes to incorporate into the character as her story arc develops in future films. "DeBose is an actress of many talents, and has continued to advocate for increased visibility of queer people of color in the film industry," Peters said in a statement to the press. "Embodying such an important role in the CAYOM pantheon will be a momentous occasion not just for her but for the community, and we couldn't be happier to have her on board." Sources to CAYOM Magazine report that DeBose may potentially make her debut as early as the previously mentioned fourth chapter, albeit her first starring role won't be until the fifth film set for release in Year 11. Speaking on the fifth film, Peters said the studio is hard at work securing a "big-name director" but isn't ready to disclose which names are in contention as of yet — he could confirm, however, that the majority of the surviving cast from Part II and Part III, including Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Bex Taylor-Klaus, Sasha Lane, David Mazouz, Kenneth Branagh, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Holly Hunter and Hannah John-Kamen have already signed on to return for the fifth film, which is set to kick off the "final trilogy of films" in the saga. Wether the cast signed on for Part IV, including Naomi Scott, Daniel Henney, Robert Pattinson, Melissa Barrera, Geraldine Viswanathan and Clive Owen would make an appearance, Peters nor any representative from the studio would disclose at this time. DeBose was born in North Carolina and was nominated for a Tony award for her performance in Summer: The Donna Summer Musical. As of 2020, DeBose is represented by Anthony Calamita of AC Management, Ryan LeVine & Kimberly Jaime of Jackoway Austen and CAA.
  9. @CayomMagazine Cookie Pictures has put out an official statement regarding the future of the Scavenger Wars franchise and the involvement of one of its main stars, Letitia Wright. This statement has been replicated on the official SW twitter account and delivered to numerous outlets before publishing. A representative for Cookie Pictures has declined to make any further comments at this time.
  10. THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART THREE) Plus Two One of the more memorable hits of the otherwise slow Year 6 was the equally charming and equally funny Plus One, starring Tessa Thompson and Adam Driver with enough electric chemistry to power the CAYOM industry for a trillion years, and now they’re back in a sequel along with the additions of the lovable Roman Griffin Davis and Pam Grier among others. While the preview short before last year’s Temple Run didn’t elicit that big of a response, one more round of drunk karaoke shouldn’t be too much to ask during the so far sparse holiday season, am I right? Increase from predecessor? LIKELY Comedy sequels are fickle; some blow up (Pitch Perfect 2, Meet the Fockers, 22 Jump Street, Hangover: Part II on opening weekend, etc.) and many do the exact opposite (Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Neighbors 2, Think Like a Man Too, the third Hangover and Pitch Perfect films, etc.). Oftentimes the problem is either that the sequel feels like reheated leftovers, or that people just thought the premise was a one and done and so one could argue that the original film overperformed in the first place. In Plus Two’s defense, everything I’ve seen of it suggests it won’t be a blatant rehash, even if replicating the charm of the original was always going to be a tall order. The switch from summer to December is a plus also (pun not intended), as audiences not interested in either the Squirrel Girl sequel or The Queen Who Never Was would have a perfect date night option over the holidays. As long as Plus Two isn’t a spectacularly poor downgrade from its predecessor or tread too much into being cutesy when the original managed to be both charming and crude, there’s not too much I see that’d work against it. Predict: $140-$190 million ----- Untitled Unbeatable Squirrel Girl Sequel Looking at the Year 8 schedule (combining both the advance schedule and what’s listed in the studio plans), there’s currently seven animated films scheduled for release in Year 8: Dog Man Where? Meeka Beastars Animal Crossing Everything We Miss Untitled Unbeatable Squirrel Girl Sequel (YM told me Larrikins was unlikely to happen) At least two of these are definitely not aimed at young audiences, and post Animal Crossing there’s a four month gap between it and the low-budget, limited release Everything We Miss, and a five month gap between Crossing and the anticipated Squirrel Girl sequel. Disregarding The Last Airbender and Panzer Dragoon, which may have family appeal but are still fantasy blockbusters aimed at general audiences, the last kid-friendly tentpole release would be the Olive the Other Reindeer sequel in the beginning of October. This is likely going to change, but if we pretend for a moment that this is how things pan out, then Squirrel Girl may just be in the most favorable position on the schedule this whole year, even disregarding the automatic benefit of being a December release. There’s three films that, at the moment, I see as the likeliest contenders for topping the Year 8 box office. I’ve already discussed both Mass Effect and The Last Airbender, one with a high built-in floor and the other with the potential to break out beyond expectations, and when it comes to the Squirrel Girl sequel, both the floor and the ceiling are fairly high, especially under current conditions. Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY Reception has less of an effect on family animated films than most other genres, outside of maybe teen slashers, but being tolerable to parents can go a long way to get them to take their kids to see the sequel, and The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl had a lot of heart, meta-humor and Marvel comic book menagerie to strike a chord with more than just its youngest viewers. While reception was never on the tier of Can You Imagine? or Gateways, an 85 on the critical aggregate is nothing to snuff at. What prevents Squirrel Girl from seeing an increase comparable to last year’s Should You Imagine? partly comes down to scheduling. Imagine switched from spring to a prime summer spot, while Squirrel Girl works from the same conditions as its also December bound predecessor. The added benefit of exclusive access to IMAX after the fourth Scavenger Wars film vacated may make a minor difference, but animated films have rarely had the same impact on the format that live-action blockbuster spectacles have. There’s also the question of if the publicized storyline won’t be more appealing to the parents than it may be to their children, even if the superhero antics should keep them occupied for the majority of the runtime. Given the lack of family options otherwise during the Year 8 holidays as of yet, though, I can’t see that factor making that big of a difference, at least unless the film actively starts boring its target audience. Predict: $315-$425 million ---- The Queen Who Never Was I'm sorry, Numbers, but I can’t just give a shrug to this one. It’s a Game of Thrones prequel. A Game of Thrones prequel. The HBO series effectively altered the landscape for genre television series. It kept HBO a viable entity during the decline of cable and the rise of streaming. It won a record number of Emmys. Nearly every high-budget genre show that came out in its wake got compared to it in some way, and nearly every high-budget genre show nowadays wants to be it. Only The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter have been more influential for the fantasy genre, and now even Lord of the Rings may borrow from it. Yes, the final season was an utter mess and dampened its legacy. Yes, CAYOM may be rebooted three more times before George R.R. Martin finishes The Winds of Winter. Yes, the complex, multi-threaded storytelling is far more suited for television than it is to film. Yes, the film is said to be at least three hours long (though that hasn’t stopped some of the highest grossing films of all time in the past). And yes, it’s a prequel taking place 200 years before the events anyone gave a damn about. But come on. Now that the fourth Scavenger Wars film has vacated Year 8, there’s also no other live-action big budget tentpole film releasing this christmas, and both The Last Airbender and Castaways will be old news by then. Maybe a three-hour prequel won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but Solo: A Star Wars Story I honestly feel is the floor for this domestically, and the likelihood of Hobbit numbers or higher is not a distant possibility either. Until competitors like Zelda, Last Airbender and Panzer Dragoon actually start coming out, Numerator Pictures pretty much owns the high fantasy genre, and both Pillars of Eternity and Sylvarius were hugely successful under less favorable conditions. I understand being cautious. I understand that just because something’s popular doesn’t mean people are going to turn out for everything related to it. I understand that being a gory, three-hours plus political allegory spanning multiple years is going to leave some people a bit lost. It's pretty much a massive wildcard. But I can't be dismissive of it either. That’s just me being honest. I’m gonna make a staunch prediction here. Deal with it. Predict: $250-$350 million ----- The Orphan Master’s Son This may be brilliant. This may not even come out. The likelihood of it coming out given the lack of updates from Panda is a bit slim to begin with. But also, given the premise and the fact that it’s basically a foreign film, the appeal among general audiences is probably going to be very limited, even if Park Chan-Wook is a darling among foreign film connoisseurs. If you want to see me actually shrugging on something, it’s going to be this one. This is a probably a film you could talk about at length, but there’s really nothing to say when it comes to its box office prospects, which is what this whole thread is about. I’m sorry. Predict: 🤷‍♂️
  11. THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART TWO) (December is coming either tomorrow or Wednesday, depending on how work goes) The Last Airbender: The Boy in the Iceberg I think some people are jumping ahead a little bit by calling this the top contender for the biggest film of the year, but I think it’s up there at least (I don’t buy into the belief that it’d be a lock for $200 million even with a 0 on Metacritic, though. Real life has already proved otherwise). It’s certainly the strongest non-sequel contender we have this year, but does it have a better chance than either the third Mass Effect or the second Squirrel Girl? I’m not saying no, but I’m saying yes either. The novelty of there finally being a proper adaptation (hopefully) of the iconic Nickelodeon franchise is going to help, sure, but I think there are too many variables in place for me to make any direct call on this one. Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY You have to try to do a worse job adapting the show than M. Night Shyamalan did back in 2010. Short digression, but the strangest part of that whole film to me is how sloppy and sometimes amateurish it is, despite Shyamalan having a lot of money and talent surrounding him to spend. I don’t know whether to even believe the rumours that there was heavy studio interference since I feel even that wouldn’t produce something so limp and lifeless unless what Shyamalan shot was that unusable. None of that has much impact on what I feel about Blankments Productions’ new take on the material (unless it somehow is as bad, which I hope not), even if I have to take the studio’s word for it that the first season can still be done in one film. I think fans of the franchise are perfectly willing to give another live-action adaptation its due shot, and anyone else would’ve either repressed or forgotten the 2010 film by now. If the franchise was popular enough that a flaming trash heap of an adaptation could still make decent money in 2010, then a proper adaptation should make a lot of cash in Year 8 with the added benefit of millennial nostalgia for the original series having kicked in since a while back. Whether the film could sustain itself in the long term, and especially long enough to be a contender for the top film of the year, I’m a little less sure about. The likely onslaught of tentpoles in December is probably going to put a stop to it, but so far the only tentpole competitor in November now that The Wild Thornberrys moved to March is The Castaways on Thanksgiving weekend, and that film can go any which way really (more on that later). It’s also far enough past the fall onslaught that people shouldn’t feel too overwhelmed with tentpole blockbusters still, and maybe some audiences choose to skip some of them in favour of this one, as I feel The Boy in the Iceberg would have more in-built hype. I’ve had the first Voltron film in my head for a while when comparing this to anything previously made in Cayom, although Avatar being the more iconic property (and my iteration of Voltron if anything should have Avatar to thank for its existence) should give it a bit more of a boost out of the gate. How much, I’m not entirely sure, but if November is ever going to have a clear winner before a dime’s even been spent at the ticket booth, it should be this one. Predict: $275-$400 million ----- The Bronx is Burning Good ol’ Marty’s back in CAYOM, baby, and now that he’s part of the Numerator Pictures historical dramatization quadrology (?), I’d advise not to stand near the ensuing black hole that’s gonna sweep up all the Oscars lest there’d suddenly be fewer studios once the dust settles. I’m kidding, of course, but Bronx is Burning is one of those legendary films from a time gone by that seeing it finally come to 3.0 is a bit of an event in and of itself. Whether it’s going to be an event for the average Joe Hamburger or just for stuffy old critics and Marty stans is a little more of a question. For some reason, I’ve always had a combo of Moneyball adjusted and last year’s Notorious in my head for a box office comparison more so than And the Band Played On, even if the latter may be a bit more fitting. It’s obviously not just about baseball. Or maybe it is. I don’t know. Dismissing Silence and that one sentence Dorian Gray adaptation released in Year 5, Martin Scorsese’s previous five films that got a wide theatrical release average to about a $110 million domestic gross, and that’s with Hugo dragging it down in the rear. Concurrently, the average between And the Band Played On, Fortnight and The Most Wanted Man in Great Britain is a whopping $217 million, but that’s probably well out of reach unless something crazy happens. It should be noted that Bronx doesn’t have the same proximity to Christmas as most of its comparisons, but I can see an opening comparable to Notorious if not Ford v. Ferrari as long as things work out in the film’s favour. Sure, The Last Airbender is going to suck up most of the oxygen that weekend, but Bronx is almost the perfect counterprogramming, and if the adult audience isn’t too spent after October, Bronx would almost be the movie every dad flocks to while they leave their kids to see Aang and friends in the same multiplex. Predict: $100-$135 million ----- The World That We Knew The World That We Knew is unique among the films listed here because it’s already been seen by most critics, and the response so far has been pretty positive. Holocaust dramas have never been known to be big moneymakers, though, (Schindler’s List cracked the top ten in 1993 but that was a long time ago, and it was also the year Spielberg was on fire), and I think that besides it being a depressing topic it’s also been milked so hard by award-hungry producers that even the jokes spawned from it stopped being funny a decade ago. The fantasy aspect of this one plus the already positive reviews may make this feel less like something like The Reader, but I’d still be cautious to expect too much out of this, especially with how crowded the fall to winter window already is. The book doesn’t seem that widely popular from what I can gather (at least it’s not recognized enough that it has its own Wiki page) so I wouldn’t bank on it falling back on admirers of the source material either. I don’t want to go too low on it since it’s a sincere effort that despite a few bumps pulls through in my opinion, but most of the available data I have prevents me from going any higher. Predict: $45-$75 million ----- The Wicker Man Okay, to explain this one; My Wicker Man is a distant follow-up to the 1973 original cult classic rather than another remake (because I thought doing another remake would be boring, and you can’t top the Nic Cage version in meme-worthy iconography anyway) that I’m modelling more like The Last Policeman films with horror elements added to it than perhaps what I think some people might expect coming off the original. David Tennant’s CAYOM career so far has been more centred around voice roles and supporting bits in tentpole films, but I want this one to be a showcase of how good he really is as a dramatic actor (seriously, watch Broadchurch, it’s really, really good and he’s really, really good in it) and so far it’s my best bet for a Best Actor nomination this year, provided I finish it. I give this one a range based on what I want from it, but I don’t have much of a clue on how it’s going to go. Maybe it performs more like my R-rated non-Scavs films of the past, like Ripper and Damnation Alley, maybe it doesn’t. I did put this last in the streak of adult-aiming films starting with Abomination for a reason, so provided I finish it and something drastic doesn’t happen, I should be in a pretty decent position to work my way through Thanksgiving. Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY Like I said back at the start, Box Office Mojo does not have available data for how the 1973 original film performed in the United States, and I doubt it was anywhere near significant enough that my rendition should have much trouble exceeding that, if at all. The Nic Cage version was also a huge bomb, so if you rather want to compare it to that I don’t see much reason to doubt there either. I think I’m in the clear here. Predict: $60-$125 million ----- The Castaways With most other tentpoles vacating November because Aang and friends are that spoopy, The Castaways remains as the lone challenger, but it’s kinda hard to get a good sense of how it'll perform given the so far vague premise, even if the director duo involved launched two of CAYOM’s biggest franchises in the past, so there perhaps is hope among the producers that lightning will strike thrice. With there so far being a lack of PG-13 tentpoles (at least I assume it’s PG-13) going forward into December it should stick around after Thanksgiving, unless word of mouth is poorer than anticipated. Just how big The Last Airbender becomes is also going to play a huge factor, and given how high the variables are on that one, it’s difficult to say, really. Not knowing the final budget or what Horizon Entertainment expects from it, my prediction as of right now will be very modest. Predict: $125-$180 million ----- Everything We Miss Technically the first of November's films to be released, but among the last to go wide. I’ll admit I basically did this in response to seeing how well Laika fared last year (I haven’t posted it yet though because I want to sit on it for as long as possible and do whatever rewrites I feel necessary), and I don’t expect much from a commercial standpoint. It’s a semi-fantasy/semi-esoteric relationship drama with a limited voice cast and low-budget animation to match the look of the graphic novel, and I did this just to get something out of my system rather than anything else. Whether it’ll work or not, I honestly don’t know. Predict: $20-$40 million
  12. THE THIRD QUARTER (PART TWO) / THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART ONE) Fullmetal Alchemist: A Tale of Two Brothers As far as this adaptation of the iconic manga/anime series is concerned, this is the fall season’s largest wildcard. With an unconventional release date for a tentpole film (yes, the two It films made a lot of money in the post-Labor Day frame, but we’ve yet to see an action/fantasy blockbuster appear in that release slot) and the spotty track record for anime adaptations in CAYOM so far, this can go either way. Setting aside my opinions on the version I’ve pre-read, quality and timing is going to play a major factor for this film, which renders the floor pretty low in the event that it disappoints, but the ceiling isn’t too bad if it gets above average reviews. A Tale of Two Brothers’s main contention, outside of whether it’ll be good or not, isn’t audience fatigue of tentpoles from the summer prior, rather it’ll be audience attention being stolen by what’s ahead of it. Both Metroid and the Green Arrow sequel two and three weeks later are going to be huge roadblocks, and a back-to-black blow could effectively end FMA’s run before the October onslaught even kicks into gear, so it has to bank on making as much income as possible in the little window it has which, given its uncertain status, is not going to be an easy feat. Effectively, I believe the film has to break out on opening weekend to have a decent chance at the two-hundred million dollar mark, and that’s going to be a tall order, especially if it’s more Bleach than Megalo Box. Predict: $100-$180 million ----- Metroid Having been in development for quite a few years and hopped between at least two studios, Horizon Entertainment is hoping to finally bring the semi-neglected Nintendo franchise to the big screen in Year 8. The studio has found a comfortable snuggle room in the $125 to $190 million range, but whether Metroid will be able to break out of that norm is entirely dependent on if it holds up and if the fall season plays out as scheduled. For some reason, the fall season is a real doozy this year. Metroid is in a weird space (pun not intended) as far as Nintendo IPs go. Its level of recognition is closer to that of Mario and Zelda than that of, say, Chibi-Robo, but Nintendo themselves have given the series sparse treatment over the years. This has improved somewhat lately, despite the issues facing Metroid Prime 4 at the moment, but I’m not entirely sure where the series stands as of this writing. That hasn’t stopped Pillars of Eternity and Mass Effect from being big CAYOM players despite their IRL creators’ treatment of them, and I feel a decent Metroid adaptation would be successful regardless, but if I’ve taken the IRL popularities of Zelda and Animal Crossing into account thus far, I can’t entirely discount Metroid's. Much like Fullmetal Alchemist, Metroid is currently sandwiched between multiple competitors which is going to make it that much harder to develop sustainable business going forward. While I don’t think a mid-September release is going to hinder a substantial opening weekend, just how high it goes could entirely depend on the final product. Space movies are favored in the CAYOM landscape, but just how much that favorability helps it stand out from the crowd remains to be seen. Provided the situation remains as is, my prediction is going to be on the modest end. Predict: $140-$200 million ----- Green Arrow: The Ninth Circle This was not on the advance schedule, but I decided to include it since it was already posted by the time I began doing the forecast. The first Green Arrow was like Static Shock on a lower scale — skating by with decent if unremarkable reviews and a legendarily weak summer season. With the sequel going bigger in scope but also into a more crowded market (seriously, why is fall so crowded?), can Endless Entertainment recreate the moderate success of the first film or will this B-list superhero strike out on round two and have to go back to the CW channel? Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY / LIKELY The reason this is a border case is, as mentioned with both Fullmetal Alchemist and Metroid, the competition. The Ninth Circle is in a very cramped position, and while being a sequel to a moderately successful film gives it some advantage, there’s also the 50-50 track record of Endless Entertainment sequels (for every Green Lantern there’s a Treasure Planet) and the historical comparison to the Kingsman sequel which also opened in late September after its predecessor opened elsewhere. Part of Kingsman: The Golden Circle’s failure stemmed from being a bloated rehash of what came before it, so if The Ninth Circle can avoid as many comparisons as possible besides the unfortunate title, it should be able to weather the incoming storm a little bit better. That said, I feel opening weekend has to be a substantial improvement from its predecessor’s $53 million for an increase to be possible, because competition is going to make a huge dent on its fortunes as things currently stand. Predict: $130-$185 million ----- Untitled Olive the Other Reindeer Halloween Sequel This one is in a bit of a precarious position not on basis of potential quality or any competition surrounding it (other family films have stayed well clear as of yet), but rather on its confirmed premise. This is gonna take some explaining. Olive the Other Reindeer, bowing in Year 5, was one of the best received family films of that year, even garnering Jake Gyllenhaal a Best Supporting Actor award, so naturally expectations should be pretty high going into any follow-up. As doing another Christmas storyline would’ve been understandably repetitive, Blankments Productions have taken the Dr. Suess route (see: The Grinch) and based the second entry on the spookier time of year, and from what I understand taking on a darker and potentially more divisive storyline as well. While all that is interesting, it does lead into why I’m making this predict. Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY / LIKELY Here’s the thing: Christmas is by far the most dominant holiday of the year, and whenever a formerly Christmas-themed property moves away from the jolly old holidays and into a different time of year, the result is almost always inferior and draws less interest. Not that I believe the Olive sequel will be inferior without having seen it, but some of the built-in interest may be lesser the second time around, which is unfortunate given how well received the original was. That said, the good reception is going to mitigate a lot of the inherent disadvantage, I feel. The film brings back basically the whole cast while introducing some fresh faces, and even if some plot elements may not end up being to everyone’s taste, I don’t think it’ll be to the film’s financial detriment either unless those changes are so drastic they turn people who might have otherwise been interested off from it. Plus, as Halloween dawns at the end of the month there should be one last sweet bounce in revenue before the holiday releases start drowning it out. Predict: $195-$240 million ----- Abomination Films aimed more at older audiences and awards are a lot harder to predict, since they more or less ride or die on their reviews. That’s going to be a bit of a theme with some of the predicts in the coming months as we move into the “Oscar-bait season”, for the lack of a better term. That said, the premise of this (basically Frankenstein from the monster’s perspective) should solidify some solid interest from the get-go as long as it isn’t too cerebral or esoteric. Having seen the director’s work, I expect a fairly grounded approach to the fantastical elements, which should bode well financially if the film’s good enough. The cast is at least bound to get some attention. Predict: $40-$90 million (disclaimer: I don’t know what the budget is so I don’t know how high Lager Pictures is aiming here) ----- World of Trouble To me, both The Last Policeman and Countdown City are awesome films (despite the presence of Ansel Elgort, who thankfully has been recast with our boi Alden Erenreich), and after the latter acquired a Best Picture nomination while seeing a massive surge at the box office (going from $85 million to $170 million), expectations are undoubtedly very high for the final chapter of the trilogy. Will Hank and Nico reconcile as the end of all life on earth finally dawns? Just how deep does the government conspiracy we’ve been hearing since the beginning go? What’s gonna happen to the cute doggy, other than that it’s probably going to be vaporized with the rest of them? Increase from predecessor? LIKELY I’m only covering my bases as far as including the possibility that the final chapter could be a letdown (disclaimer: I have not read any of the books, so I don’t know how it ends) and that, unlike some other trilogy finishers like Odyssey, Pillars of Eternity and The Scavenger Wars (to an extent), I think the nature of these films being atmospheric police dramas means the ceiling is naturally going to be lower, so I don’t expect some crazy explosion at the finish line, but a perfectly solid result nonetheless. As far as competition goes, Abomination, Four Songs of the Wise and Dirty Hands all release in October, but they are more likely to be targets rather than threats, so on the adult drama scene it should be smooth sailing all the way into November. Part of what helped get Countdown City to $170 million though was strong legs well into Thanksgiving, and that’s a bit more of a question mark this time, especially since I expect a bit more frontloading with it being the last chapter. Not to the point it’ll make a huge difference, but a somewhat noticeable one. Still, I don’t think Numerator Pictures has much to worry about. Predict: $160-$215 million ----- Four Songs of the Wise Wait, Peter Bogdanavich is back directing? (Yes, he's appeared in a few stuff recently, but he hasn't directed a feature film since 2014, and it's been decades since any of his films have seen a wide release.) But yes, everything from the director choice, to the premise, to… basically all of it, suggests it won’t be very commercial. It should do a bit better than pretty much all of Bogdanovich’s films post-Mask on the basis of securing a wide enough release, maybe a little bit more if it garners any awards attention, but this is probably going to be the lowest predict I’ll make on this forecast. Not that much to dig into here. Predict: $5-$15 million ----- Panzer Dragoon New Journey Pictures hopes to cut a slice out of the fantasy market that doesn’t involve making your otherwise grounded story go bonkers halfway through (with mixed results) with this loose adaptation of a Sega Saturn cult classic. I have played Panzer Dragoon once or twice, but I’m not familiar with the lore or what NJP hopes to squeeze out of it, so I’d be interested in seeing what they come up with, especially since I do love me some dragons. The mid-October release date I don’t think is a coincidence either, as this time last year the studio had its by far biggest hit with Megalo Box grossing over a billion dollars worldwide, so the hope is for lightning to strike again, even if I wouldn’t call it especially likely. I think the fortunes of this one sort of depends on how audiences feel after the blockbuster onslaught during the five weeks prior — after Fullmetal Alchemist, Metroid, Green Arrow, Olive, and World of Trouble, it’s possible audiences might be spent for the season — and the looming Avatar: The Last Airbender adaptation dropping in early November may mean some skip Panzer Dragoon for it. I don’t think Dragoon could skirt by on being merely average (disclaimer: I don’t know what the budget is) or, worse, mediocre, but if it manages to impress I think it should be able to cling on just fine. That’s a bit of an unfair weight to put on it, perhaps, but with the fall season being surprisingly cutthroat as of this writing, I think more needs to be done to stand out. Predict: $80 - $180 million (big range, but I’m covering my bases here)
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