JonathanMB

Honestly pretty fantastic considering how the PostTrak numbers looked and that RT looks like it will stay below 80%. Plus stories like this:

It runs into the same issue as Cinemascore where not every definite recommend is indicative of how good or bad legs will be. For just two examples, Civil War had a 53% definite recommend two weeks ago before dropping off a bit harshly, while back in December Anyone But You had a 57% definite recommend. A four point different between two movies that will have a sub-3 and 14+ multiplier respectively. That said, a chart keeping track of those numbers would be interesting to see, even if it drives home even more how hard they can be to read.

Checked the same theaters again, sales picked up a little bit at each of them for Thursday, but then I decided to check Friday night's showtimes and each theater has already sold 50%+ more tickets for Friday than Thursday; which is rare around here. So hopefully that means a somewhat backloaded preview-to-Friday ratio?

I'm out in the western suburbs of Chicago and do unofficial checks in my area to get a vibe on how a movie is selling, and it's pretty low so far at the AMCs near me, but in Chicago itself it's selling stupid-well, with several Thursday and even Friday evening shows already 50%+ full. So it seems like there will be a bit of a divide in those markets for this. Hopefully good WOM spreads and helps give the suburbs a bump at some point?

I think the Amblin-y rebranding of the franchise is partly paying off here, as it's probably the second best option for families looking to take their kids to the theater after KFP4.

Now A24's fifth biggest hit ever, and will soon settle into being their second biggest hit ever.

I wouldn't be that concerned if hype feels cool at the moment; we're three months out from the release with at least half a dozen blockbusters opening between now and then, including two from Universal that are gonna take up a lot of their time in marketing. Heck, at this time last year Barbie didn't even have a full trailer yet.

Worth noting that any weekend gross above $12M for Abigail would give it the best opening for a horror movie since Five Nights at Freddy's, and the best opening for an original horror film since M3GAN 15 whole months ago. So these numbers are sounding pretty solid to me.

It needs a 5.78 multiplier from this weekend to reach it, but it is now down to the same range where Migration started regularly having 10-30% weekend drops and bounced around the $2-5M range for over a month. KFP4 has four whole weekends as the only major family movie option until IF and then Garfield open, so it could be close but it's still in the cards.

Yeah, usually when these "back in IMAX" re-releases happen it's because of a lull in the schedule that allows the theaters to decide if the current holdover is worth sacrificing showtimes to the older film. Since Civil War is actually doing pretty well in a lot of places, I'm guessing most of them will split showtimes with Dune, unless it was a theater where Dune was still in high demand when it left.

It sure is! I believe the highest they've ever gotten before at the weekend box office is The Green Knight at #3? Such a big win for them. And a big win for an original film post-COVID; the number of truly original films to open above $25M in the last four years is...short. Especially R-rated ones.

The last original live-action film to open above $20M was M3GAN 15 months ago Cocaine Bear over a year ago, so any weekend number above that figure would be great, nay incredible considering that A24, an 11-year-old distributor, has only ever had two movies (Hereditary and Talk to Me) make over $10M in a single weekend before.

Monkey Man getting the same CInemascore as Beekeeper seems promising. It might not be super-leggy as there are four more action movies opening over the next five weekends, but it should help it find an audience beyond theaters at least. As for First Omen, Immaculate is gonna have a 3+ multiplier off its C Cinemascore, so obviously it's not an end-all for a horror film, although I don't know if First Omen will have the same snappy viral moves that movie had (pull quotes from scandalized Christians, Sydney watching the movie with nuns, the $6.66 Wednesday discount, Jeff Sneider committing career suicide with a fake Sydney scoop that got everyone talking about her again...)

Monkey Man - $1.4 million First Omen - $725,000

Here's last year's top 15 for comparison: