leoh

I think some factors are making Madame Web exceed expectations. First, it’s because we had low expectations (I was kinda trashing it before pre sales start ngl lol). Second , it is the lack of competition, Argylle could cause some problems on VDay week, but now we know it won’t. Lol Third, it is the WoM (this one we will only know when the move is released on Feb 14).

Wow this means that in MTC1 on Friday OL is tracking to get less than 25% than what it will get on VDay, I’m even more shocked

wow so OL seems way more front loaded in MTC1 then, considering what it’s sold on VDay. OL has on Friday like 25% of what it’s sold for VDay. It’s shocking

I have no doubt it’ll be a great movie, I’ll be there on day one for sure, but I’m aware it doesn’t have a big pop culture appeal. From what I’m seeing so far in pre sales, and considering it’s not a big deal neither in China nor in Japan, but it’s quite popular in Europe, I’d say it’ll def get a bigger box office, but not as much of a crazy growth like Spider-Verse 2. So I’d say a ww box office closer to Wonka rather than Spider-Verse 2. So between 550M and 600M.

Regarding Dune (50-75M range/125-195M) this matches what I’m noticing in AMC NY Theaters: Dune sells really well for IMAX formats but it’s not that great in non PLFs. If you look at an IMAX theater you’ll think wow Dune is close to Oppenheimer, however when you look at non-PLFs you realise it is still far away from doing anything close to Oppenheimer success. I remember Variety saying “rival studios are projecting Dune to have potential for 1 billion ww”. Lol it’s one of my favo movies coming out this year, but I’m aware that it does have that pop culture appeal to go even close to 1 Bi.

“Well” is a strong word in fact. Lol But it’s still doing better than Aquaman, Blue Beetle and Morbius. it’s better than I expected (I was like trashing it before the pre sales ngl lol) I was watching the NFL conference (which had around 60M viewers this year) and I saw a couple of Madame Web TV Spots there (what is kinda surprising given that NFL playoffs and conference championship games draw has some of the most expensive TV spots). So I guess an improvement in marketing campaigns is helping it to get a decent growth in locations other trackers posted here. WoM seems to be decisive for superhero movies nowadays, let’s see how it does in the coming days.

Oh yeah I get it now, so now I agree you’re right, The Marvels was highly front loaded, I remember by the first days of pre sales people were projecting it to make 85M OW, but The Marvels ended up with 46M. So it makes sense you avoid using it as a comp. So I agree with you about Hunger Games, it was way less front loaded. Then yeah I think you’re right, Aquaman and Hunger Games seem to be the best comps.

This matches AMC NY numbers. Madame Web is having decent growths here as well. However I’m doing like @TheFlatLannister and comparing it to Aquaman, Blue Beetle instead of BoSS. It’s also having better pre-sales than Morbius in AMC NY theaters. Yet I think it’s a good idea adding The Marvels as a comp (keeping Aquaman as a comp as well).

Bob Marley started the pre sales 7 days before Madame Web. I know cuz I have a friend who is a fan of him and bought his ticket on JAN 23. Anyways, you can also see a post about this on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/8iYlMEHB7x Or officially here: https://m.facebook.com/BobMarley/videos/bob-marley-one-love-tickets-on-sale-today/1549617069202585/ what’s impressive about the numbers you’ve just updated is that OL took 8 days to sell 8.8k but in the past two days it sold 4.5k. Maybe it may have to do with events for fans they are doing.

Answering your question, I think the main issue here is that you’re making a comparison to a movie that opened on December 25 (the best day of the entire year to release any movie). Moreover, the comparison may also damage your track because, beyond the DEC 25 factor, The Color Purple open with almost 20M. It’s reasonable to say that till the summer there’s no movie that we can compare with The Color Purple OD without damaging our tracks. So I’d say that it could work better for your track if you compare it to other biopics. For example, Elvis was released just 1 and half year ago, I think it would fit way more than a movie that debuted with almost 20M on DEC 25. We can see OL is closer to a KOTFM OD* (2.6M) rather than to a TCP (19M) or The Creator (1.6M). Therefore movies with around 3M OD would work better to your track. Then Elvis biopic would be a great comparison. *I’m using Opening Day as synonym for “first day of release” of course.

In NY it’s selling way better than I could have predicted. Considering only AMC NY theaters, Madame Web is selling better than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Beetle. Considering this and pre sales other trackers posted here from other locations, I’d say that it seems to be making on VDay between 4M and 5M. So how much could it make in the 5 days OW? It’ll depend heavily on WoM. If it’s a good WoM, the 40M+ 5 day OW is achievable. For example, Uncharted made $3,700,000 on Thursday (Feb 17) and landed 44M OW. Fifty Shades Darker made 5.7M on Thursday and landed 46M OW. That’s why I am shocked for seeing it making 4M to 5M on VDay. It’s not a massive number, but the fact that this makes possible a 40M+ OW is really surprising for me (I was kind of trashing it before the pre sales open lol)

Pitt and Clooney for 10 million each????? No way they would accept that for 10 million. Jenifer Lawrence to make No Hard Feelings last summer charged Sony 25 million

Yeah I saw it but it was for Friday pre sales, I was trying to check the opening day / VDay numbers. In AMC NY theaters it’s doing way better than I thought (before the pre sales I was like almost trashing it tbh lol), and you have nailed it recently, so I’m like quite curious to know if it’s a NY “phenomenon” or if it’s somewhat happening in your area as well (in some extent at least).

Last movies you really nailed it

Agree, at least considering AMC NY theaters pre sales as they right now, nothing suggests Dune could get even close to “Oppenheimer phenomenon”. In AMC NY theaters it’s selling REALLY well for IMAX halls, but not impressive for conventional halls. This may suggest it’s still a niche film rather than pop phenomenon.

I would lean more towards what keysersoze123 said: Madame Web is selling better and it will certainly be the clear winner of the weekend. You have to keep in mind Deadline prediction was before Madame Web ticket sales start. And we couldn’t predict it would sell so much more than One Lone (I got shocked ngl I couldn’t expect it, it’s selling much more than I was predicting). If you look at Box Office Pro prediction it’s way closer to what keysersoze123 said, not huge numbers on valentine but still a clear winner (Madame Web). Considering the numbers shared here so far, on VDay Madame Web seems to be making between 4M and 5M. One Love between 2M and 2.5M. But these numbers can increase in the coming days, the last two weeks usually have an increase in marketing campaign.

In NY and California AMC theaters Madame Web is doing better than I thought, and it’s increasing sales today and gaining new screenings (in AMC NY theaters). AMC Empire has just given it an additional hall, the PRIME PERCEIVE THE POWER hall. It is selling better than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Beetle (in NY AMC theaters). It seems it’s going to have a good opening day. It’ll very likely have a good VDay, therefore if it gets a good WoM it can make a 40M+ OW, but if it doesn’t it can go way lower.

This depends on WoM, Valentine’s Day for Madame Web will probably be better than anyone expected, but to keep doing well it has to have a good WoM. And it’s not Rotten Tomatoes critic score. It’s all about audience embracing or not a movie. For example The Marvels OW weekend was 46 M (it ended up with 84M) Aquaman extended OW was 38 million, and now it’s crossing 120 million domestically. The Marvels got 60% on RT and Aquaman only 35%.

Exactly. Madame Web has tickets on sale for 24 hours now, the other one started selling 8 days ago. Tbh at this point there is not much doubt on who will win the opening weekend (and with a considerable advantage, considering it’ll keep selling well as now). I am really surprise ngl.

Update on Madame Web in AMC theaters, NY: Given the unexpected high amount of tickets sold for Madame Web, some NY AMC theaters started giving it new screenings. AMC Empire went even further and attributed an entire new hall to Madame Web, now Madame Web will also be screened at PRIME PERCEIVE THE POWER hall, and even more surprisingly tickets for this new hall is selling faster than expected.

This matches NY numbers. In NY (considering only NY AMC theaters first 12 hours) Madame Web is selling more than Aquaman, Morbius and Blue Bettle. We have to carry on tracking it but at this point a 40+ million opening weekend (including WED and THU) is very much possible. And yes, I am shocked ngl. I def overlooked the strength of Spider-Man IP in American pop culture.

I understand, but if I have tbh I’d laugh at you if you told me Madame Web would sell in 12 hours 30% of its first night seats in Lincoln Square IMAX. I mean I couldn’t predict this ngl. Just as comparison: One Love also has a premium format in Lincoln Square on Wednesday, a screening in Dolby Cinema, which has half of the capacity of Lincoln Square IMAX, and even so One Love has sold only 10% in 7 days. I mean I’m shocked ngl, I never even considered this could be possible for this movie till I look at the number of tickets bought for Madame Web screenings this afternoon. Probably I overlooked the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture.

This matches with NY numbers. Here in NY (considering only AMC theaters in NY) Madame Web first 12 hours sold more tickets than Blue Beetle, Aquaman and Morbius (considering only the first 12 hours of each in NY AMC theaters). Tbh I’m really surprised, maybe I was not considering the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture.

it is doing better than anyone could have expected. Here NY it has sold out all central seats for Lincoln Square IMAX theater 19h00 screening (tickets were put on sale this morning) in NY as a whole it’s selling way better than I expected. Such as someone commented on here earlier, in some areas it has already surpassed Aquaman 2 previews.