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Any projection for how much it’ll do?

@Carlangonz it seems that there was some earlier shows for Garfield in Mexico before April 30. The Cámara Nacional de la Industria Cinematográfica reported today the same figure as you (140.8 million) however in the cume it’s 149.1 million, so certainly there was earlier screenings. Probably the same thing as in the UK: there will be earlier shows on 18th and 19th, plus on Sunday (12) there’ll be more previews before the official release on May 23. The Fall Guy is up a little bit more, probably due some additional earlier previews as well, its cume is at 45.5 million.

any updated on Garfield sales in Mexico sor far? It’s doing really well in Brazil, Italy and Spain. @Carlangonz

@M37 has been doing a great work for years now. The fact that you disagree with someone doesn’t mean you don’t respect his work.

Deadline projection for GxK:NE opening weekend is at 50M domestically. By your reaction you fully disagree, but Deadline looks reasonable when we compare GxK:NE with Dune pre sales. When we compare both, GxK is 40%-45% behind Dune pre sales (MTC1), as you can see in the breakdown I did. So it seems to me that 50M-55M is the most likely range for GxK:NE OW.

“but 9.25M to 10M would have been too much of a stretch”… I can help you if you can’t understand what this means… guess what, I was saying I don’t believe in the 9.25M theory. 😉

it’s the same for the US. It’s just adapted to local time. For those who are in the US review embargo will be lifted just on Thursday early morning.

I have a more simple theory: Ghostbusters 45M OW reported by Sony is correct and so there’s no reason for noise, then there’s no noise.

Thanks I was assuming that because 2.87M just reported by Sony is a 74% drop from Sunday, which is pretty much in line with KFP4 drop (71%)… So if I’m not mistaken, if Charlie theory was correct (43.3M instead of 45M), Ghostbusters would have made 4.5M today (considering there would be a 1.7M fudged for the weekend)… right? 4.5M on Monday would be a 58% drop from Sunday (considering Charlie said it made 10.75M on Sunday)… I mean Dune dropped 66% on its first Monday… I’m not saying that a 58% drop from Sunday would be impossible, but it is hard to believe it’s holding so much better than Dune…

not really, Charlie said Monday box office should be at 2.85M and he was saying Sony would report 1.9/1.65 if Sony had fudged numbers. However, Sony has just reported 2.875M… even more than what Charlie thought would be the right report. So this ends that theory of fudged numbers.

Nope. Sony has just reported 2.875, again more than what you’re expecting… I think being such a wide release, almost 4350 location, may be creating some distortions with comps released in 3.5k/4K locations.

I think a comparison with Dune pre sales (MTC1) would be interesting: T-3 Dune Thursday previews was at 99792 (increasing +13388) GxK:NE T-3 is -41% behind Dune T3. • Therefore: I’d say GxK Thursday previews is gonna be around 6M (considering those 10M reported by WB) T-4 Dune Friday was at 116242 (increasing +18213) T-4 GxK:NE is -44% behind Dune Friday T-4. • Therefore: I’d say GxK pure Friday is gonna be around 12M (considering those 20.2M reported by WB) So this would lead us to something like 6 + 12 + 18 + 14 = 50. So right now, considering Dune a good comp, I’d say GxK:NE 50M-55M OW (high end considering a +10pp over Dune pace due to Easter weekend).

oh… so they are unblocked now?

@TheFlatLannister the problem is, if all your previous trackings were counting those blocked seats, all you comps (including Ghostbusters and Dune) had the benefit of those blocked seats. If now you take out those seats from your tracking, this will create a distortion (because you counted them in your former trackings). Do you know what I mean?

in fact @TheFlatLannister was pretty accurate about Ghostbusters. His T-1 Dune comp for Thursday was at 5.2M. Considering Dune ATP was considerably higher, 5.2M - 10% (ATP) = ~4.7M (accurate) I agree that his Civil War projection looks higher than expected. But I’d not say it’s wrong, or impossible, Civil War is taking over IMAX screens on April 12, this will give it a really good boost at the box office. Plus Civil War is already being marketed as the next IMAX big experience, this could be boosting its pre sales.

Wow this is surprising good news!!! it’s worth to mention that civil war is going to take over IMAX screens on March 12. Some people believe it can be the first A24 movie to cross 100M at the domestic box office. That would great cuz it’s the biggest investment ever for A24 (50M budget).

My response was to a discussion about GxK:NE pre sales tracking information, I was saying that current data doesn’t suggest anything like 65M+ OW.

I was literally responding someone who’s considering 67M opening weekend… This has nothing to do with my preferences. I’m being pragmatic, considering movies cultural impact/background (I personally think this is highly relevant) + pre sales tracking. And current data doesn’t suggest 65M+ ow for GxK:NE. It’s not because I don’t like it. Some people were thinking I was a Dune hater some time ago because I repeatedly said 80M was best case scenario for Dune 2, when many were still believing in anything close to 90M. And still I love Dune.

Monster-verse domestic records: 2014 200M 2016 160M 2019 110M 2021 100M There was a pandemic only in one of those 4 monster-verse releases, right? Plus, I agree that 2024 monster-verse movie will surpass 2021 GodzillaXKong box office (given that it’s being released during the Easter break). However, it’s not realistic to expect anything close to 70M OW.

I think you forget a 5 in the 2024 opening weekend number, don’t you @Krissykins???? ‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ domestic opening weekend is 45.2 million.

67M???? Don’t set yourself up for deception… Moster-Verse is a declining franchise, Monster-Verse movies are declining every new instalment they release. 2014 200M 2016 160M 2019 110M 2021 100M However, WB will release it during Easter break long weekend (Friday to Monday), when ~68% of schools will be closed this year. This may help it to surpass the previous 48M OW. So currently I’d say 50-55M is more realistic. Monster-verse movies aren’t a big deal in the US. International market is the reason why Legendary carries on producing these movies. And it seems it’ll do pretty well in China.

yeah… good news for Sony is that this weekend 40% of schools are in spring break, and during the weekdays next week ~32% of school in spring break. Next weekend (Friday to Monday), ~68% of schools in Easter break, and during weekdays (from Tuesday to Friday) ~27% will have their Spring break. So 2 really good weeks to Frozen Empire legs.

I was told Ghostbusters is making 16M today… How’s it going tomorrow in Florida?

interesting… in late shows Ghostbusters is selling better than Kung Fu Panda, and this really makes sense. If you look at demographics, Ghostbusters has a way more adult audience than Kung Fu Panda, although it seems it’s now being the number one choice for family friendly movie during the Easter break.

‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ to make between 42M and 44M OW It got 16M on OD (36% from IMAX screenings) and, according to Deadline, will have an OW on par with ‘Ghostbusters: Afterlife’ ($44M) GB:FE has had great walk ups, due to decent WoM. It has 80% positive score on PostTrack, really close to the 82% Afterlife had. On IMDb it has 6.6 v Afterlife’s 7.0. Audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, GB:FE has 4.3 stars v Afterlife’s 4.6; non verified audience is even closer: 4.2 (86%) v Afterlife 4.4 (90%). Like every Ghostbusters instalment since 1980s, GB:FE will also cross the 100M+ mark at the Domestic box office. Overall, the whole marketplace with $97.6M this weekend is expected to be off -17% from the same weekend a year ago ($116.6M). https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-1235865730/