leoh

It’s already revealed. Dune EA got 1.9M. Just a bit less than what it was expected to do. Most of projections were expecting 2M+, anyways close enough.

TLM?

if it keeps this growth rate it can dream with 5M to 6M+ on Thursday, animations usually are backloaded.

These numbers make me realize how insane is the ~12M box office got this weekend by Sony’s Crumchyroll Demon Slayer (two episodes). Anime is a really big deal in the US.

Kung Fu Panda will take over Dolby Cinema halls in Dune second weekend. Besides some projections are seeing Kung fu Panda at a possible 35M+ OW. These are def factors that may prevent Dune second weekend from getting better legs.

Nope: rn RT has 43 reviews from top critics, only 2 of them are rotten. This is ~96%, far away from MC 80. https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two/reviews?type=top_critics

I am just saying Metacritic (80) and RT (97%) scores will get closer when reviews from non-invited critics arrive on RT after today’s first public screenings for GA in the US. For comparison I mentioned their difference regarding first Dune, 74 MC and 83% RT. I’m not shading it, I’m just purely making an analysis. BTW I have tickets for a Dune screening today in Lincoln Square.

it’s marketing strategy, obviously they invited all the major outlets. They did what they are supposed to do, I was not criticizing WB. btw you mentioned Metacritic, it has 80 on Metacritic right now ,17 pts less than on RT, their difference for first Dune were 9 points. So it’ll probably get ~90% when reviews from non-invited critics are published. Be aware both Oppenheimer and KOTFM got 93% and Poor Things 92% on RT.

100% agree. Dune will open in a range between 70M and 75M (which is already an outstanding OW). Everything WB planned about early embargo lifting worked pretty well: their invited critics gave 97% on RT (there was no general preview screening for the press, just for selected critics by WB). So if any enormous bump was possible we’d have seen during these past days. Today in the US we’ll have the first public previews for GA and so a wave of new reviews will pop up by non-invited critics and so the 97% probably will start coming down to earth (it may end up with something near to 88-92%)

80M is the best case scenario (this means it’s something that might happen according some projections) 90M is not likely according to projections. it’s up to you though if you wanna believe right now 90M is a realistic scenario. I wouldn’t mind good movies deserve good box office.

Nope 80M is not “the most likely”, if we count the major projections the most likely is around 70M. 80M is like best case scenario right now in those projections.

I have a friend who has already watched it, and he told me that Dune 2 (although stunning) carries on with the very same Dune 1 “problem” that may prevent it from being a mega popular movie like Barbie or Oppenheimer.

Is it around 75M? I’d say anything between 65M and 75M OW is what most of projections seem to agree as the “most likely”. Theaters seem to be aware of that, Dune will lose the Dolby Cinema halls in its second weekend, Kung Fu Panda 4 will take over Dolby Cinema from March 8.

as I expected (and I think you as well) the closer Dune gets to the release the more down to earth its projections seem.

That was during the pandemic, in 2021. In the same year there was a KxG movie which barely passed 100M domestically. And you can argue anything about pandemics, then take the previous monster-verse movie which made only 110M domestically in 2019, once again less strong than a Ghostbusters release during the pandemics. I mean I think it’s a pretty clear that Ghostbusters is a stronger brand in the US.

DEMON SLAYER previews at the #1 spot in American box office this Thursday! Sony got 1.8k locations for its previews and it still makes it to the #1 spot! 1. DEMON SLAYER ($1.8M) 1.8K locations 2. BOB MARLEY ($1.5M) 3.58k locations DEMON SLAYER is going to have a better weekend than most of us were projecting!

So you are saying the second Ghostbusters second weekend is “zero competition”????? I mean Ghostbusters box office record in the US is stronger than monster-verse. These G and K movies are more of an international thing.

cool!!!!! @Shawn Robbins is seeing it getting ~150M domestically and a possible better run than GxK. I think this is possible, G and K movies weren’t ever a big deal in the US, it’s more of an international thing. any idea when pre sales start?

Any idea if it’ll be like a 2M+ or a 3M+????

this recalls something you said two weeks ago when your first projection was showing Madame Web 6M+ and OL 14M on VDay and you were like “nah, never mind guys!” lol

I think that is the problem someone commented here before, it’s being compared a 15+ days of sales with a 2 days of sales.

I might be wrong, but I’ll repeat myself: I don’t think good reviews will give Dune any huge jump in pre sales. I say this due to the balance of expectations: Dune is already expected to be a really good movie, great reviews will not surprise many people. I don’t think there are many people who is doubting Dune quality and so will be convinced to buy tickets due to excellent reviews. Of course there will be a good increase the closer we are to the release date, but nothing too crazy. it’s a sequel of a successful movie, and as such it tends to be front loaded. Dune is a movie that already has a big fanbase and a big reputation, and for this kind of movies front loaded factor is way more common than surprising huge walk ups.

Any projection to Wednesday????? It seems Madame Web will lead it far ahead of the rest

Yeah it seems my projection based on NY sales was pretty close to what is going on nationwide… Charlie has just confirmed that OL dropped ~73% from VDay box office, getting $3,7 million (for a 2nd day, this is one of the biggest drops ever from OP, isn’t it? If someone has the records please let me know). Madame Web dropped ~60% this Thursday, getting $2,2 million. If NY box office once again resembles nationwide this Friday, right now it seems both movies box office will be even closer this Friday.

UPDATE ON AMC NY THEATERS: OL is dropping ~75% here, if it resembles nationwide sales, OL could end Thursday with less than 1/3 of its VDay box office. Madame Web is dropping ~50%. If this resemble what’s going on nationwide, both movies box office may end this Thursday surprisingly closer than we expected. Here, some theaters added 30%+ shows to OL