Jump to content

Filmovie

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    817

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Filmovie

    Furious 7 Weekend Numbers: Revised Official Estimate - 146.5M (Sunday underestimated) | Official OS Estimate - 240.4M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Filmovie

    Estimated Top 25 Midnight Grosses of All-Time (as of 03/04/15)

    Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

    1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $43.5 million (47.7 percent)

    2. The Dark Knight Rises: $30.6 million (40.4 percent)

    3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 30.4 mln

    4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1: $30.25 million (42.2 percent)

    5. The Twiilght Saga: Eclipse: $30.1 million (43.9 percent)

    6. The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $26.27 million (36.1 percent)

    7. The Hunger Games – Catching Fire $25.26 million

    8. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1: $24 million (38.9 percent)

    9. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $22.8 million (39.2 percent)

    10. The Hunger Games: $19.735 million (29.3 percent)

    11. Marvel's The Avengers: $18.7 million (23.1 percent)

    12. The Dark Knight: $18.5 million (27.5 percent)

    13. The Hunger Games – Mockingjay part 1 17 million

    14. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith: $16.9 million (33.8 percent)

    15. Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen: $16.8 million (27.1 percent)

    16. Furious 7 15,8 mln

    17. Iron Man 3 15.6 mln

    18. Transformers : Dark of the Moon: $13,5 million

    19. The Hobbit – Un unexpected journey 13 mln

    20. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $12 million (27.1 percent)

    • Like 2

    Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

    in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game

    Posted · Edited by Filmovie

    TOP 15

     

    1. AVENGERS AGE OF ULTRON 544 M

    2. MINIONS 303 M

    3. JURASSIC WORLD 291 M

    4. INSIDE OUT 285 M

    5. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE ROGUE NATION 203 M

    6. PIXELS 185 M

    7. ANT-MAN 170 M

    8. TED 2 163 M

    9. SPY 145 M

    10. FANTASTIC FOUR 138 M

    11. TERMINATOR GENESYS 130 M

    12. TOMORROWLAND 128 M

    13. PITCH PERFECT 124 M

    14. MAD MAX FURY ROAD 115 M

    15. ALOHA 90 M

     

    TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS:

     

    1. AVENGERS AGE OF ULTRON 219 M

    2. JURASSIC WORLD 117 M

    3. MINIONS 104 M

    4. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE ROGUE NATION 81 M

    5. INSIDE OUT 75 M

     

    TOP 10 WW

     

    1. AVENGERS AGE OF ULTRON 1589 M

    2. MINIONS 814 M

    3. JURASSIC WORLD 811 M

    4. INSIDE OUT 645 M

    5. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE ROGUE NATION 583 M

    6. ANT-MAN 504 M

    7. TERMINATOR GENESYS 430 M

    8. TED 2 403 M

    9. SAN ANDREAS 390 M

    10. MAD MAX FURY ROAD 359 M

     

    TOP 5 WW WEEKENDS

     

    1. AVENGERS AGE OF ULTRON 379 M

    2. JURASSIC WORLD 273 M

    3. MINIONS 157 M

    4. ANT-MAN 142 M

    5. TERMINATOR GENESYS 134 M

       

    TOP 5 LOWEST GROSSING FILM

    • Dope

    • The Outskirts

    • Self/Less

    • The Gift

    • Underdogs

     

    Tell me, of these five films, which one will be the lowest grossing of the summer. Only these five films can you choose from.

    1) Trainwreck
    2) Southpaw 32 M
    3) She's Funny That Way
    4) Aloha
    5) The Man From U.N.C.L.E.



    Second Bonus Question:

    Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the summer: Only these five films.

    1) Masterminds
    2) Fantastic Four 138 M
    3) Terminator Genisys
    4) Magic Mike XXL



    Third Bonus Question:

    Tell me, of these five films, which will be the highest grossing INTERNAtIONALLY (NOT WW, ONLY INTERNATIONALLY....ALL FIGURES ACCORDING TO BOXOFFICEMOJO.COM)?

    1) Terminator Genisys
    2) San Andreas
    3) Mission Impossible Rogue Nation (395 M)
    4) Ted 2
    5) Mad Max

    For 15,000 bonus points, call the correct film within 25 mill.


    TRIPLE BONUS

    Here are your 16 bonus questions that have to be answered before the start date.

    Question 1: Will more than 3 films gross at least 110 million dollars Opening weekend domestically (3 day weekends count only)
    NO

    Question 2: Will more than two films gross at least 50 million dollars on opening day?
    NO

    Question 3: Will any film this summer have a worldwide weekend of more than 280 million?

    YES


    Question 4: Will any film make more than 51.5 million this summer in Australia?
    NO

    Question 5: Will at least two films make more than 55 million dollars this summer in the UK box office?
    YES

    Question 6: Will any film besides Avengers make more than 150 million in CHINA this summer?
    YES

    Question 7: Will at least 2 films make at least a billion mill WW this summer?
    NO

    Question 8: Will at least 5 films, listed as a comedy (could be sci-fi comedy...horror comedy...must have comedy listed somewhere in the genre ) by Box Office Mojo, make more than 120 million dollars this summer?
    NO

    Question 9: Will at least 3 action films released after May, have a WW gross of more than 500 million?
    YES

     

    Question 10: Which combination of films will make more money domestically?

    1) Terminator, Spy, Jurassic World
    2) Entourage, Spy, Hot Pursuit, Poltergeist
    3) Minions, Insidious 3, Self/Less, Straight Oughtta Compton

    4) Avengers first ten days, Mafgic Mike XXL



    Question 11: Will any two films make more than 40 million in Russia this summer?
    NO

    Question 12:

    Will the top two films combined make more this summer than the next 5 films combined (domestic only)? So to avoid any confusion like we have last summer, the question reads like this.... top 2 spots add up to more than slots 3-7.
    NO

    Question 13:

    Will any of the top 7 grossing sequels domestically this summer have a second weekend drop of less than 47.5%?
    NO

    Question 14:

    Will Avengers, Minions or Jurassic World have a Saturday increase minus the preview number?  So take out the Thursday number and you get the true Friday number.  You guys know the drill.

    YES

    Question 15:

    Will Minions outgross Avengers in at least two of these regions this summer? (France, Netherlands, Venezuela, Hungary)

    YES

     

    The Ron Jeremy of all bonus questions, QUESTION 16

    This is a four parter:

    1) Will Avengers make at least 600 million domestically? NO
    2) Will Avengers make more than a billion internationally? YES
    3) Will Avengers do at least 25 million for previews YES
    4)) Will Avengers make at least 1.8 billion WW? NO


    NEW QUESTION:

    17)  Note*** Jurassic World does not qualify for this question

    A) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com gross more than 100 million dollars this summer? NO
    Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com open to more than 35 mill? NO
    C) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have a second weekend drop of less than 47%? NO
    D) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have an opening day of more than 13 mill? YES
     

     

    Double Secret Probation Bonus Question

     

    Very simple, but very dangerous.

     

    I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets.

     

    1) Russia:  42M NO

    2) Germany:  31.5M NO

    3) Portugal:  3M NO

    4) China:  200M YES

     

     

    Will Jurassic World and F7 combine to make more than Avengers in these markets?

     

    1) Japan YES

    2) United Kingdom YES

    3) Columbia YES

    4)  Mexico YES

     

     

    As promised, here are your additional 20 25 questions for you.  I love this part of the game.

     

     

    1) How many films will gross at least 100 million dollars this summer? 15

    2) How many films will make a billion dollars this summer?  1

    3) What will the domestic total gross be for the top 3 horror films of the summer. 150$M

    4) How  many films will gross at least 40 million opening day? 2

    5) How many films will make at least 500 million internationally? 2

    6) Will Terminator Genisys and Pitch Perfect 2 and Insidious 3 combine to gross more than F7 domestically? NO

    7) Will Ted 2 make more than Ted? NO

    8) Will Tele love Mad Max and will baumer love Jurassic World? BOTH WILL

    9) Will any film released in August gross 100 mill before the end of the game? YES

    10) Will Self/Less make more than 40 million? NO

     

    11) How many films will make at least 750 million WW?  3

    12) How many films will make at least 30 million OD? 3

    13) Will Magic Mike XXL have a bigger opening day than Terminator genisys? YES

    14) Will Pan be one of the top 7 grossing films of the summer domestically? NO

    15) Will Ant Man gross at least 500 mill WW? YES

     

    16) Will any film gross 250 million in China? NO

    17) Will any film have  a WW weekend of more than 300 million YES

    18) Will Mission Impossible gross more than 200 million? YES

    19) Will Vacation gross more than 70 million?

    20) How many films will gross at least 305 million this summer?  2

     

    21) Will Avengers gross more than the first one? NO

    22) Will any film besides Avengers make 25 million in Spain? NO

    23) Will any film besides Avengers make 65 million in the UK? NO

    24) Will Entourage make 100 mill or more? NO

    25) Will Avengers drop less than 55% second weekend? NO

    • Like 1

    ITALY (Botteghino): 'Inside Out 2' BREAKS opening-weekend record for Hollywood films

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    This is BEST OPENING WEEKEND (since 2001). Only Fri-Sun (that used to be the OW. Since Oct 2012 it has changed).

     

    This is only Fri-Sun

    1. Sole a catinelle (Local Title) appr. 16,4*

    2. Che bella giornata (Local Title) 11.82*

    3. Benvenuti al Nord (Local Title) 9.85*

    4. Avatar 9.65

    5. Alice in Wonderland 8.16*

    6. The Da Vinci Code 7.95

    7. POTC: DMC 7.50*

    8. Harry Potter and DH p. 1 7.45

    9. Harry Potter and GOF 7.23

    10. Pinocchio (Local Title) 7.02

    11. Ice Age 3 6.84

    12. 50 Shades of Grey appr. 6,8 ca.*

    13. New moon 6.64*

    14. LOTR: ROTK 6.52*

    15. Spider man 2 6.38*

    16. Ho voglia di te (Local Title) 6.26

    17. LOTR: TTT 6.25*

    18. Breaking Dawn part 1 6.24*

    19. Manuale d’ amore 2 (Local Title) 6.20

    20. Breaking Dawn Part 2 appr. 6,1*

    21. Spider man 3 5.97*

    22. The Simpsons Movie 5.94

    23. Shrek The Third 5.88*

    24. LOTR: FOTR 5.84

    25. I am Legend 5.72

    26. The Passion of the Christ 5.70

    27. Spider man 5.64

    28. Ice Age 4 5.60

    29. POTC: AWE 5.56*

    30. Angels and Demons 5.54*

     

    *burned off some demand during midweek

     

    The man behind the first 2 titles will release his next movie this December.

    • Like 4

    Weekend #s | 50SOG 81m, (RTH Sunday puts it at about 84M) Kings 35.6, AS 16m, JA 9.43m (official) | all #s on p1

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1). Fifty Shades of Grey (UNI), 3,646 theaters  / $31M Fri. / 3-Day: $83M/4-Day: $91M/ Wk 1

    2). Kingsman: The Secret Service  (FOX), 3,204 theaters  / $10.5M Fri. / 3-Day: $35M/ 4-Day: $39.4M/ Wk 1

    3). The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (PAR), 3,654 theaters (+13)  / $6.6M Fri. (-56%)/ 3-Day: $26.6M (-52%)/4-Day: $36.1M/Total Cume: $99.2M/ Wk 2

    4). American Sniper (WB), 3,436 theaters (-449)/ $3.79M Fri. (-39%) /3-Day: $16.4M (-29%)/4-Day: $19.2M/Total cume: $307M/ Wk 8

    5). Jupiter Ascending* (WB), 3,181 theaters (0) / $2M Fri. (-68%) / 3-Day: $7.1M (-61%)/ 4-Day: $9.1M/Total Cume: $31.7M/ Wk 2

    6). Paddington (TWC), 2,244 theaters (-644) / $869 Fri. (-22%) / 3-Day: $3.9M (-25%) / 4-Day: $5M/Total cume: $63.2M /Wk 5

    7/8). Seventh Son (UNI), 2,874 theaters (-1) / $915K Fri. (-60%)/ 3-Day: $3.3M (-54%)/4-Day: $3.8M/Total Cume: $13.1M/ Wk 2

    The Imitation Game (TWC), 1,551 theaters (-412) / $790K Fri. (-38%) / 3-Day: $3.3M (-29%)/4-Day: $3.9M/Total cume: $80M / Wk 12

    9). The Wedding Ringer (Sony), 1,456 theaters (-682)/ $617K Fri. (-53%) / 3-Day: $2.3M (-50%)/4-Day: $3.1M/ Total cume: $59.2M /Wk 5

    10). Black or White (REL), 1,591 theaters (-232)  / $602K Fri. (-53%)/ 3-Day: $2.3M (-49%) / 4-Day: $2.69M/Total cume: $17.4M/Wk 3

    • Like 1

    ITALY (Botteghino): 'Inside Out 2' BREAKS opening-weekend record for Hollywood films

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    The only negative factor is the weakening euro.

     

    ...and the weaking average ticket price. No one here cares about 3D anymore (in fact average ticket price has fallen in the last years (from 6,41 to 6,02 Euro). 

     

    I have already underlined twice that:

     

    TA: average ticket price 8,4 Euro - attendance 2,133 M - tot 18,0 M 

    IM3: average ticket price 7,0 Euro - attendance 2,289 M - tot 16,1 M EU

     

    GOTG: average ticket price 6,8 Euro - attendance 0,833 M - tot 7,1 M EU

    TWS: average ticket price 6,7 Euro - attendancd 1,065 M - tot 5,7 M EU

     

    Moreover since 2013 in May there is the  week of  "Cinema's Celebration" (in which rickets are sold at the price of 3 Euro for 2D and 5 Euro for 3D)

     

    Another example is:

     

    TASM2 (releases in the same slot): average ticket price 6,3 Euro! - attendance 1,447 M - tot 9,2 M EU

     

    By comparision, 2 years earlier

     

    TASM: average ticke price 7,6 Euro - attendance 1,554 M - tot 11,8 M EU

     

     

    So. 

     

    AOU average ticket price 6,8 - in order to pass TA ----> attendance needed  2,65 M (+20 % vs TA)

    AOU average ticket price 7,0 - in order to pass TA ----> attendance needed 2,57 M 

    AOU average ticket price 7,2 - in order to pass TA ----> attendance needed 2,5 M (most likely scenario)

    AOU average ticket price 7,4 in order to pass TA ----> attendance needed 2,43 M (+14% vs TA)

     

    An increase in local currency on TA is everything but assured (by the way it's possible), let alone in $

     

    Sniper will close at about 19 M EU and AOU is everything but assured to pass it (by the way, it's possible)

     

     

    And, in all Italy, there are 3 IMAX screen.

    • Like 3

    ITALY (Botteghino): 'Inside Out 2' BREAKS opening-weekend record for Hollywood films

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Filmovie

    Moreover I am pretty concerned about the average ticket price of the latest Marvel Movies. It passed from 8.4 € (Avengers) to 7,0 € (Iron Man 3), to 6,75 € (Gotg and Tws). With that average Age of Ultron will need a big increase in attendance to pass TA in local currency (18 M €) and even a bigger one to pass it in $.

    • Like 1

    ITALY (Botteghino): 'Inside Out 2' BREAKS opening-weekend record for Hollywood films

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Filmovie

    AS will pass for sure 19M € now. SAM should close above 15.8 M €. Exodus above 7 M €. TIG at about 8 M €.

     

     

    Brief Predictions 2015 ---- All datas in Euro. In order of release:

     

    Lock 10+ MLN €

    • 50 Shades of Grey: there are no true comparisions but the nearest I can see are High School Musical (+9 MLN €) and Twilight (+11 MLN €). A lot of curious people over 14 will watch it at the cinema.

    • Furious 7: the franchise has kept growing since the 4th entry (8,3 M € ---> 10,9 M € → 12,9 M €). This will for sure have a 12-15 M € result.

    • Avengers: AOU: Avengers did 18 M €. IM3, in 2013, did 16 M €. The only thing I am worried about is the average ticket price : TA had 8,43 EURO; IM3 7,03 EURO; TWS and GOTG about 6,75 EURO. AOU will likely have 6,9-7 EURO and if so, it will need a 20% increase in attendance to beat TA.

    • Minions: DM2 made 16M € 2 years ago. This won't make more but not that much less

    • Spectre: Skyfall made almost 13M €. Even if it loses some attendance, it's almost impossible to see it under 10 M €

    • Untitled Zalone's movie: if it ever get released in December, this won't have any problems becoming the most successful movie of the year. Zalone's last two entries made +43 M € and +51 M € respectively.

     

    Possible 10+ MLN €

    • Cinderella: Maleficent (14 M €) and OZ (8 M €) are the comparisions: do the math

    • Jurassic World: JP3 did 5,5 M EU back in 2001. This will have 3D plus inflation. 7-9 M should be achieved. Can it pass 10 M €? Maybe. I bet it won't.

    • Ted 2: the original made 11 M € in Oct 2012. If it keeps the June release it will be hard to pass 10 M but anyway possible

    • Hunger Games MP2: the finale effect always works here in Italy. Twilight Saga added 20% with BD 2. Thus is possible for this to add 15%.

    • Inside Out/ Good Dinosaur

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept