geekfreek

Haha, I did go see it. The 3D was relatively good. As far as conversions go, it was the best I've seen yet (though the 3D trailer for Titanic before it was GORGEOUS). I still enjoyed it. There are moments in Episode I that are really well done amidst quite a few troubles. It was a part of my childhood and I appreciate it more for that reason. However, growing up and looking back with a subjective eye, I understand that dislike towards it. Having said that, the last 30 minutes or so is great - the 3-way lightsaber fight (and podracing sequence) was worth the price of admission alone.

I enjoy it for what it is, but I don't love it. I'm more curious as to how it looks in 3D. I won't be going until Sunday and I haven't really looked into what critics are saying about the quality of the conversion yet. Anyone care to comment on this?

If it is only $12M for BD1, that definitely isn't good but not wholly unexpected. The Twilight franchise is known for huge openings and poor legs. The rush-out factor since NM was released 2 years ago has only increased and we should be expecting steep drop offs. It'll probably rebound a little over the weekend, but then continue to fall at a slightly faster pace than NM did.

I've been away and haven't had time to comment on BD1's progress. I'm actually a little surprised. It's done a little better than I thought it would - I guess I was wrong when I thought the interest in the franchise had diminished a little.But, even with this "strong" Tuesday, I still think it's too far behind NM to catch up or even pass it. $280-285M total.

vc2002, (sorry, I can't quote on the mobile version of this board), of those movies only TDK and DMC could be used to compare. TS3 and Shrek 3 were animated family-friendly films and act completely different at the box office. Iron Man 2 doesn't even come close to the scale of gross that we're talking about. DMC and TDK both were OW breakers so they're worth comparing. TDK was a universally praised film that was extremely successful at the BO, but also went against any usual trends. It was a BO exception, not a rule. DMC came out in 2006. Avatar 2 will be coming in 2014 (maybe). Especially in the past couple of years we have started to really see OW figures jump and multipliers come out less and less. I don't think we can reasonably compare DMC to Avatar 2 for that reason. A 2.5 multiplier does seem low, but it's becoming somewhat "normalized" figure for big name sequels and, in some cases, is starting to be looked at as "decent legs". 5 years ago, a 2.5 multiplier was considered awful. Even during the incredibly strong holiday season, I can't help but feel the film will open huge and just drop hard. It's a trend that's become more and more common: the bigger a movie opens, the harder it falls.Maybe the opening is a little on the high side for Christmas, but when was the last time a truly massive sequel opened up during that time slot? ROTK? Although it opened on a Wed, it's 5 day opening was the 3rd biggest at the time (with a running time of 3 hrs. 20 mins.) and does show that audiences will turn up in droves for a massive sequel regardless of the time of year. Plus, being a sequel, with nearly all viewings going to be in 3D, and inflation in 2014, I don't think $200M is that unattainable. Even if does open softer... Say to the tune of $180M, it will just spread out its early earnings over the first week or 2 and end up with the same result: $550M.

First of all, I think we need to stop comparing the drop off rate from Avatar 1 to Avatar 2. Those who are thinking that A2 can't possibly gross less than $500M because the drop off would be too steep need to consider what the original film was: an absolute PHENOMENON in pop culture that completely changed the way we think about filming and viewing movies. It was completely new and groundbreaking: as every "all time top grossing" movie before it in the past 35 years has also been. We simply cannot compare drop off rates like we did from DMC to AWE or Matrix Revolutions to Matrix Reloaded. This is completely different and unlike any sequel we've ever been able to predict in our lifetime. The closest thing would be to look at comparing the original Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back, but even that is a huge stretch because it's from a completely different era of film and box office. We just simply CANNOT look at drop offs of previous sequels and draw comparisons, much like we couldn't compare the original Avatar to anything else back in 2009/2010. With that being said, there is no doubt in my mind Avatar 2 will CRUSH the opening weekend record... Whatever it might be at the time. This should easily push $200M. With the holidays, it will hold fairly stable - though still experience much, much heavier drops than its prequel - and probably collapse after New Years. As we are discovering more and more with box office, films are opening bigger and bigger and dropping faster and harder after opening day/weekend. In that sense, as a highly anticipated massive sequel, Avatar 2 will follow a slightly more "normal" trend because it won't be the new, fresh thing it was when the first one came out.OW: $200MDOM: $500MOS: $1.3BWW: $1.8BNo doubt I'll change these 2 years from now, but I just can't see this exploding like the last one did. $1.8B should not, by anyone for any reason, be seen as a disappointment. That is a huge number and something only 2 other films before have achieved! It would be BEYOND incredible of Avatar 2 managed to outdo the original at the box office.