Dale Cooper
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Posts posted by Dale Cooper
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4 minutes ago, M37 said:
And my point it was that nothing “crumbled” this weekend except week 2 movies, the entire market moved together and held fairly well, and claiming otherwise is poor analysis trying to score cheap points by presenting a skewed comparison as some kind of “gotcha”
This is so dishonest, you know that the reason it was said that Avatar would crumble had to do with it loosing IMAX, PLFs and 3D shows, and not necessarily that another big film had its premiere. That didn't really happen, and here we are again with you trying to explain to everyone (again) why Avatar isn't really having good legs.
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9 hours ago, Ronin46 said:
So you were expecting a B Cinemascore and Rotten? Because patting yourself on the back over your prediction when that was what was needed for it to be right seems the wrong way I would look at IMO. Average reception would have got it to 120 pretty easily I would have thought. I suppose caveats need to be put for every movie based on reception but for something to be ranked in the bottom few for Marvel and still do this well shows what might have happened with a good movie and makes those "optimistic" predictions not look to bad honestly.
I remember Legion arguing with Shawn when he put his first LT tracking number of just under 100. How strong he was that the data would not allow it to go under 100M opening. Despite being so poorly received by critics (maybe a bit better by audience so far) it still made it with a bit to spare. So he was right.
Well, I expected that it wouldn't be especially well received as it's fairly common for MCU films these days. You can also not be sure what average reception would have gotten it, I would argue that the OW wouldn't be that affected by reviews unless they truly were teriffic. Maybe a bit higher than now, but certainly not $15m. It was also fairly evident before the reviews dropped that it had lost a lot of ground compared to the comps.
But hey, kudos to you that you're admitting you were wrong!
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MCU clearly isn't dying. They do have to start produce better movies again though, because the low quality is eating a good chunk of the box office and it will only be more potential gone for every film.
Anwyay, turned out my suggested $105m from three weeks back turned out to be quite on point for this. Remember getting some heat for suggesting that and that it absolutely would open smaller than Dominion and Love & Thunder. Will probably end its run at ~$260m.
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31 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
134,463 entries on OD for Ant-Man Quantumania
Half of A2 OD, 7M confirmed!
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1 hour ago, Elessar said:
So in France A2 will actually be ahead of A1 in tickets sold? Amazing....
It seems like it will be a bit short, but it will get very close.
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Feeling the Titanic love here is a bit excessive. It's great (the best film to gross more than ROTK), but far from Cameron's best.
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Quantumania looks fairly mediocre in Sweden. Probably gonna sell less tickets than the previous installment which already was pretty low. Almost expecting A2 to take back IMAX next week.
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I think a bit "better than previous film but worse score" can be acredited to that they like it better now than what they like the last one now. That does not mean that they did not like the previous one better when it was released. That certainly seems the case with Avatar.
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4 hours ago, TheDude391 said:
Idk he assumed audiences would be mixed on Wakanda Forever and Avatar 2 while predicting they'd ADORE Thor 4 (not that he'll ever admit he was wrong on those ha).
That is three blockbusters in a row. And it should be fairly easy to predict how audiences will react to a movie.
And since he loved Thor and not Wakanda or A2 it sort of seems he thinks the general perception will reflect his.
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Why would anyone want these to end? Few franchises are so very aware of what they are, and does with it as much as Fast and Furious. Just pure fun all the way through, and for every installment they manage to outdo the last in terms of being ridiculous. Wonderful entertainment.
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The Way of Water passed 1 million admita this weekend in Sweden. Should be able to at least get close to 1.1M (possobly a bit higher) before it closes out. Really good post holiday legs.
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10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
*Only Disney* Films are struggling to cross ¥1B (Commercial Success Line) before.. Eternals opened ¥1B club, MOM opened ¥2B &Avatar ¥3B &¥4B. Rest of the films are earning as usual. Whether it's Minions/Sing.
Among 2022 release, If you want to know what's worstly affected is Boss Baby &Light Year (huh.. that Matrix)
Well, animated films usually do pretty well in Japan, no? My point is that it has little to do with quality. The ones that have been doing decent business in the last year haven't really on average been any better than the ones that underperformed.
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3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Absolutely wrong. Imported Film (especially Maverick &RRR) did work out.
Terrible Film like Fantastic Beast &Jurassic World did better than then expected.
So what you're saying is that we have two good movies that worked out, two bad movies that worked out and then a whole lot of other good and bad movies that didn't work out. Sounds to me that it doesn't have much to do with quality after all.
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It has nothing to do with Japan having good taste in movies. It's pretty evident what kind of movies works in Japan these days, and has little to do with quality.
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On 2/1/2023 at 12:53 AM, Sophia Jane said:
Some markets won’t count re-release to the total run,that’s normal thing
Sure. but that's not really what I meant. It's the difference in ROTK's gross (and that hasn't really had any real re-releases).
Anyway, The Way of Water should end up on at least 175M if it doesn't suddenly start to drop much harder. Too bad there aren't moer IMAX screen over here, because I think it could have done quite a bit more if there was. On my local IMAX it has virtually sold out every single show that hasn't been a morning/early afternnoon show on a work/schoolday.
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1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:
$1.5M TUE
25% drop this weekend = $11.5-12M 3 day
But it will probably see a bigger drop because of Knock
Maybe. But it would have probably seen about a 20% drop if not for Knock so it might make 12M despite.
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5 hours ago, Shanks said:
TLK (1994) - 119,464,525 SEK with 2,025,470 Admits
Titanic (1997) - 173,702,468 SEK with 2,166,584 Admits [Original] + 8,718,033 SEK for 3D Re-release.
TLOR (2001) - 162,886,764 SEK with 1,942,799 Admits
TLOR (2002) - 165,568,493 SEK with 1,827,026 Admits
TLOR (2003) - 170,268,764 SEK with 1,836,772 Admits
Mamma Mia (2008) - 173,502,290 SEK with 1,905,581 Admits.
Avatar (2009) - 174,215,411 SEK with 1,482,367 Admits [Original + 2 more Re-release]
Will find more later.
Hm, I wonder if the Swedish film institute numbers has been a little off (which is where the numbers for 2001-2016 used to be available). I remember it was reported that Force Awakens passed ROTK as the highest grossing movie back in March 2016 when it passed 179M.
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2 hours ago, Sophia Jane said:
Can you make all-time top 10 chart or something?
Not really, there used to be available monthly stats (2001 to 2016) for admits/gross but I can't find that anymore. But roughly it is something like
1. TFA ~181M SEK
2. ROTK ~ 178M SEK (might be more if it has had re releases)
3. A Man Called Ove ~ 175M SEK
4. Avatar ~ 171M SEK (probably around 175M now)
Then Mamma Mia and The Two Towers were somewhere in ~160M region. Fellowship a bit below. Then both Hobbit 1 and 100 Year Old at around 147M if my math is correct.
Titanic is in there somewhere, but I have never seen any data on it.
This should be the top 10. It is also patched together from existing data (2010-2016) and my memory so it is very rough. Should give a decent feeling for the top grossers though.
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21 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:
Do you have the number about Highest grossing of all time in lc?
Should be The Force Awakens with about 181M SEK. Avatar was at about 171M SEK at its first release if I remember correctly. The Way of Water should be just below 160M SEK right now.
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So it turns out in the end that The Way of Water will pass 1M admits pretty handily in Sweden. Very good legs post holiday, and it will get fairly close to the all time record in local currency. Should at the very least pass Avatar's original run. A quite incredible turnaround from the dissapointing early numbers.
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12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
Well these are the figures for Zack
Day 22 BP2 - 159773 @ $17.28 = 2.76M v ANT3 - 123252 @ $18.10 = 2.23M and 80.81% of BP2
Day 20 BP2 165623 @ 17.24 = 2.85M v ANT3 127943 @ 18.05$ = 2.31M and 80.80% of BP2
Pacing the same as BP2 over the last 2 days.
that comps to 23/146M 3 day as already said.
Goodluck on 105M and those "reports" and the general vibe about "the pace" and all those "unknowns" which are going to knock it down by over 30% from here.
There are a lot of comps in the tracking thread that have it under 20, and as I said I wouldn't expect a 6.5x multi from previews.
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22 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:
I went through Zacks numbers and comped BP2 day 22 (I did it a few days ago) against ANT3 sales on same day and it came out as
BP2 seats sold 159773 ATP $17.28 = 2.761M
ANT3 seats sold 123252 ATP $18.10 = 2.23M
Thats 80.8% of BP2, which opened with 28M/181M. 80% of that is 23M/146M.
105M seems unlikely I would say.
It will depend if ANT3 is actually any good. ANT3 is a 4 day so that will depress the multiplier for 3 day i guess. Also is BP2 more pre sale heavy than ANT3 and so on. But seems like 120-130 is where I would have it at this stage for the 3 day.
A lot of unknowns as of yet, but it does seem to me that the pace has decreased over the past few days. Also, there were reports that pre-sales were more front-loaded for Ant Man than for other Marvel films, which isn't that surprising considering it's kind of an important film for the upcoming MCU films. I really don't think it will be as backloaded as Black Panther over the weekend, though.
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Just now, Ronin46 said:
What do you think ANT3 opens with on its 3 day then?
I'm not saying it isn't going to be big. I just don't think it will be $140m big. I don't really do predictions, but if I had to guess, I would guess $105m maybe?
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Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Dale Cooper
Yeah, getting relatively unknown directors is common for those kind of projects. It's not something unique to Marvel, and to my estimation it's not something that makes it any less probable to succeed.
Besides, it's not in the directing department the past few Marvel films has been lacking anyway.