Dale Cooper
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Posts posted by Dale Cooper
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To be honest, this is shaping up more and more like Avatar itself. It will not hold as well as that did, but I would not be surprised with something like $1.7b international at this point. Of course, that requires very good legs from here on, but it's looking quite good.
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Great numbers for all three movies. I think The Way of Water might hold better than expected on Sunday due to PLF/IMAX skew, which should mean that Sunday plays quite a bit better than Friday. But that might be an incorrect assessment.
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12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
At least we can all agree Avatar and its sequel wouldn’t get in a Spielberg Top 20, right?
Avatar would certainly not be top tier Spielberg, but 20 movies are a lot. If you make a combined top 20 it could probably miss, though.
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6 hours ago, Bruce said:
do you have the number?
No, I don't have any number. But there's really only one big theater chain in the country so it's fairly easy to get a decent feeling about what numbers it should be doing based on that.
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The Way of Water has done great this week in Sweden. Wouldn't be surprised if Friday is the second best day of its run actually. Should easily beat the fourth weekend record in local currency.
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6.7 is a great number tbh. A 60% increase on friday should be enough for 40m weekend. With 50% around 36m. Both good numbers.
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Incredible if it was to hold with the increase. I am a bit surprised it holds this well, but on the other hand it is doing this in essentially all the big markets as well - just as the first one did.
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Better number. Still sticking with ~38m for the weekend.
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1 minute ago, Tokugennumataka said:
Do many OS markets have schools off or holidays these weekdays or something? 'cause these numbers look insanely strong to me. Normal FSS pattern would suggest something like 34/64/50 for ~150M FSS or so.
Yes, many markets do still have schools off this week. Friday is also a national holiday in parts of Europe.
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So it made 660k weekdays despite weak Monday? Seems quite good to me.
Anyway, it seems the trend better on weekends than weekdays compared to Rogue One and it keeps improving compared to it. It made about 230% of Rogue One's third set of weekdays compared to 170% over the second set of weekdays. It did about 230% of Rogue One's third weekend. If it keeps improving in about the same rate it could triple Rogue One's third weekend for close to a million? Maybe that's too much to ask for.
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Seems more in line with what one should expect, still pretty good I'd say. My $39m is probably a little on the high end. Maybe $36m for the weekend?
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23 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Agreed with the number and the overall feeling, but i wouldn't called it a come back down tbh
It would make 650M even more likely
Yeah, but there's many numbers a whole lot higher than so that are thrown around in this thread. Anyway, I could easily see a few millions lower as well.
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I think we should not get too carried away with this number. It's obviously good, but I still see a weekend of around ~$39m. Maybe it can do bigger, bit maybe it will come back down after a great run the last 8 days.
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10 minutes ago, M37 said:
Posting this for two reasons:
Showing how the RO comp just completely fell apart and no longer became predictive after Christmas, though perhaps showing some signs at stabilizing at around +35% as we move past the holiday week
But also because there is a (surprising) comp from 2016 that has fit/tracked much better over that period: Passengers (albeit at only ~27% of Avatwo's value)
Don't know what - if anything - it means (though I do have a theory, but going to wait to see how the rest of this week/weekend plays out first).
Fwiw, if this trend were to continue, we'd be looking at something like: $11/$7.5/$6.8 / $11.5/$16.5/$10 = $38M (-43%) through Sunday 1/08
I think this is a plausible scenario. I'd probably have weekdays a few million lower and weekend ~40m but 38m is very reasonable I think.
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10 minutes ago, Elessar said:
Because of different calendar setup (and the storm). A1 had about similar first midweekdays than A2 despite a much smaller opening. That tells you how much more inflated those days were.
Hey, don't get me wrong, i'd love for you to be right but you are not making much sense.
An important factor in that, though, is that Avatar premiered closer to Christmas, which means that the weekdays in the first week was more inflated. If you look at the dailies in Avatar's first weekdays, almost all movies are up compared to the previous week, not so much the same can be said for The Way of Water. Now, there's no way to really measure how much a difference it made, but it certainly played a big role (which is also why A2s second weekdays were bigger than A1s).
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Great numbers for The Way of Water. Anyone know the splits between IMAX/PLF and other formats for the last weekend?
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6 minutes ago, Bruce said:
A2 is just not that good movie,we’ll see A3 with T2 level WOM easily break 3.5B
I mean, I get not liking the film, but at this point with the way it's holding it's pretty obvious audiences are enjoying it.
If there isn't improved exchance rates when A3 releases, it's gonna need China to come big to outgross The Way of Water regardless of WOM really.
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3 minutes ago, upriser7 said:
NWH probably lost $5-6M in Denmark due to covid, late release. If you compare current A2 numbers vs NWH full run numbers in Nordic countries, A2 is roughly 55-70% of NWH in all the Nordic countries except Denmark where it has already caught up with NWH
Maybe, but not necessarily. Avatar was relatively bigger in Denmark compared to the other Nordic markets. It was by far the highest grossing film of all time upon release. NWH still sold more tickets than Endgame in Denmark despite late release.
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7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
If it reach 750K next Sunday, I don't think it will miss 1M.
Besides, NWH was at 447K in Sweden at end of year, went on to do 831K. A2 should be doing better.
I think the pandemic (with cases really exploding after Christmas) might have played a big part for NWHs relative weak holiday figures last year and then stronger than usual legs afterwards (especially for that kind of film). It held very, very well after the holiday.
If we look at something like the first Hobbit, it had 920k-ish after the holidays and got to 1100k or thereabout. Now, Hobbit opened much bigger and during the actual holiday I believe The Way of Water has played about as strong or even stronger. Hobbit also had much more competition during January and The Way of Water obviously will play very, very strong on the IMAX and premium screens throughout January.
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9 minutes ago, M37 said:
Problem is, there really isn’t a good comp here: lot of high grossing but fall off quickly titles vs low stating value and good post-holiday legs. Jumanji TNL is one of the few (only?) higher grosseing but still post-holiday leggy options
Jumanji WTTJ maybe? 😎
Great weekend anyway. Can see anythying from ~600m to well over 700m now.
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Just now, Bruce said:
Any chance for 1m?
Should be possible. Let's see how it holds after next weekend.
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550 942 tickets in Sweden now. I'm not completely sure if it's as of Sunday or Saturday, my guess is Sunday. Very good, and good recovery after dissapointing start. It's not going as strong this week as last here, but there's a public holiday on Friday that should see numbers rising from Thursday on. Could be at 750k on Sunday on its way to 900k+ total.
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Is it? It seems NYD isn't a strong BO day in the UK. The other films dropped like 40% and 25%. So I'd say flat is very, very good.
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6 minutes ago, M37 said:
It may prove to be this last week is more of a holiday boon (plus storm bounce back) - perhaps followed by a January deflation - rather than a permanent change in trajectory. To me, the next 4-6 days will be crucial in that regard, to see if the gains vs RO remain high or start to come back down
Sure, it could be so. But the key difference here is that small to mid sized movies has that kind of trajectory around Christmas every year. Movies grossing $20m a day doesn't. Ever. Except, well, Avatar.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
in International Box Office
Posted
This is not exactly true. If it drops 30% for the next 3 weeks just, it will be beyond $2.2b already. It's going to drop pretty hard this week, though, considering it still was holiday in many markets this week.