Dale Cooper
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Posts posted by Dale Cooper
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2 minutes ago, Agafin said:
That's actually better than the Friday Christmas day imo, the latter is overrated because of Avatar. The one you mentioned is the Titanic configuration and is better. But even that one isn't the best imo.
The best holiday configuration imo is Tuesday Christmas day. That way you get five day weekends consecutively (Dec 21-25 and Dec 28-Jan1) and the entirety of the holiday frame is at nearly 100% capacity. That is the Fellowship of the Rings configuration.
I mean, it depends on what you want to achieve. If you want to have the best 3rd weekend with premiere the friday before Christmas, you would want NYD to be the a Friday.
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Just now, IronJimbo said:
Sadly it probably won't make 2026,
Wouldn't the golden calender be Thursday Christmas Day, Friday Boxing Day?
For third weekend? NYD on a Friday, as Avatar and TFA had.
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8 minutes ago, Agafin said:
So which one is going to be more difficult to top in the future, Endgame's OW or TFA's third weekend?
I think third weekend. Hard to see a non Christmas movie that beats that for a long long time, and probably needs the same calender configuration as TFA had to be able to beat it. Feels like such a movie, like TFA, would have beaten the OW record as well.
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13 minutes ago, Agafin said:
Well the only December movie which was not a part of a frontloaded franchise that did at least $60m in its second weekend was Avatar so there isn't a large sample size.
Though Jumanji increased from $36m to $50m in its NYE weekend and likely sold more tickets than Avatar will, so there's precedent for that.
Sure, Jumanji had an incredible increase. From a much smaller weekend, though. But let's use Jumanji - it made another 210m from it's NY weekend, from a sizeably smaller weekend. Sounds pretty good to me for Avatar as well.
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While I agree in general that last year isn't a good barometer for drops next weekend (because of external factors last year), I am actually not sure it is applicable to Avatar. It's very common that movies landing 20-25m or lower during Christmas weekend to increase a bit during NY weekend, however no movie has ever increased from a 63m weekend. It has just never happened. Sure, it would quite possibly have done a bit more last weekend if it wasn't for the storm and it might have ended up being more flat instead if so, but then again, pretty much only one movie has managed to do so as well, and that was with a snow storm weekend. Want to hazard a guess which film that is?
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17 minutes ago, Elessar said:
I'm pretty sure it's better than a regular weekend due to most people having off on FRI (acts like a SAT) and MON (which inflates SUN evening).
But in any case it seems to be better than when Jan 1st falls on SAT, like what was the case during NWH's run. There must be a reason why movies fell much less in the beginning of 2022. Or maybe all movies in the top 10 had just better legs? I dunno.
It's definitely better than when the 1st is on the Saturday. But I'd still say it's not inflated for being a holiday weekend. The calender configuration that Avatar had (Friday being the 1st) would make the weekend inflated.
As for comparing it with No Way Home - it will obviously not be able to post the same holds past January, that's for sure. But it very much can have better holds the first couple of weekends after this, to make up for the comparatively worser holds later on.
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If it does 24m on Friday, and about 65m for the weekend I'd think this have a genuine chance to reach 700m.
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2 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:
Let's look at some numbers shall we? Anyone wanna hazard a guess as to what the comps are saying right now?
21.7?
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My favorite is Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?. Incredible first two features also with The Graduate.
More recently I would go for Ex Machina, Whiplash, Lady Bird and Nightcrawler.
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2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
Well i was only being half serious with the '3bil locked' for A3. But sequels dont always drop from the previous films, they do more oftne than not, but not always, and there are realictic things holding back A2, things that dont effect most films.
True, not all films do, but almost all sequels to huge films does (at least, almost all films released a couple of years after). It's very unlikely this will not (I can barely think of a single sequel that has done so). Of course, if China comes good and does 800m instead of 200m, it could increase a bit.
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As for the possibility for A3 to outperform A2, I highly doubt that. It would need China to step up big for that to happen. Sequels to huge movies that comes out a few years after the last tend to go down quite a bit. I see absolutely no reason for this to not do so (unless of course, exchange rates gets back to A1 level). After all, Avatar is no LOTR.
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2 minutes ago, BuzhuWarrior said:
That said, it genuinely feels to me (anecdotally) that the response to A2 amongst people I know is roughly the same as it was to the first Avatar. Quite a lot of people seem to being an approximately similar response in terms of enjoyment (and potential rewatchability). A few like it a bit less, and a few like it a bit more.
Anectotally, this is exactly my experience as well. I think it's a pretty good measure of how it actually is.
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3 minutes ago, Reddroast said:
As for the second point considering im talking to GP people for the most part and not stans who would be rewatching....
Yes, sure, let's call everyone that rewatches it a stan and then the GP wouldn't rewatch it. Good point!
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I mean, do people really think that James Cameron is the best director or something? There's certainly thing he does better than anyone else, but the best director? Come on.
7 minutes ago, Reddroast said:Lol ive talked to relatives and friends and members on the board who have seem the film and they have said the film is not as
rrewatchable as the 1st.
I'm not sure anectodal evidence is gonna get you anywhere. It's pretty evident there's a lot of people going multiple times to see this. I don't think there's any doubt about that.
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11 minutes ago, M37 said:
One of those scenarios can be reasonably - albeit pessimistically - made, while the other cannot be reached even with the most optimistic projections, so claim the latter has a higher probability is just flatly incorrect
Let's agree to disagree about that, because this is actually not really worth discussing as both these numbers are, at the very least, highly unlikely to come true.
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33 minutes ago, Elessar said:
I would disagree. Right now, $600m seems the upper range of where it will land. Like i said, unless it does some crazy increase this weekend and drops less than 30% next couple weeks.
Higher is just relative. I think, barring external factors, there is 0% chance for it to stop with 550m. I would at least think it's a non-zero possibility to reach 870m. Not really worth talking about, though. My point was never to say that it was probable to reach that, just comparably more.
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18 minutes ago, M37 said:
There is clearly (bordering on absurdly) not
To make this as easy to digest as possible: if Avatwo would to track exactly like the original Avatar from this point forward, it would still "only" finish at around $825M. Meanwhile, for the highest grossing films at the turn of the calendar each year since 2011 (11 titles), only 2 (maybe 3) would offer a trajectory that would wind up above $550M (TFA and NWH, that latter being a bit COVID skewed and is best not to use as a comp, with the third being perhaps MI: Ghost Protocol depending on how high this next week goes)
Be excited about the recent upswing by all means, but let's please try to keep some perspective here
Well, I don't really think it's going to do it. I'm just saying it could do it. I don't think it's possible to just get 550m at this point. It would have to drastically change trajectory from here on to do so, and let's not forget that Rogue One had much more competition than The Way of Water through January.
Also, the bolded is not really true. If it performs exactly similar from the second Wednesday (that is 10% higher) it's going to end up with....870m
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12 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:
To reach $870M it would have to be +10% better than Avatar after 18 days. That isn't happening. I'd put under $550M as unlikely at this point this point but it's still far more likely than $870M.
Sure, very, very, very unlikely. But here's some food for thought: after first week, both Avatar and The Way of Water have remarkably consistent compared to each other. Similar weekdays in the first week, similar Christmas eve, similar Christmas Day/Boxing Day, similar weekdays in second week, probably similar NYD performance. The first Avatar had limited 3D screens back in the day which probably made it a bit more backloaded than what it could have been, The Way of Water has instead limited IMAX/PLFs. If it keeps on following Avatar after holidays, it will end up with....840m. (now, I don't for a second think it will do this)
Anyway, I'd say unless there's some external factors impacting box office it cannot miss 550m.
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The thing about IronJimbo's prediction is that, while clearly extremely optimistic, it is more probably than some of the predictions still thrown around in here. For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m, because it's basically 0% chance for that barring some external factors.
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Are there any breakdowns of gross in different formats for the last few days? Would be quite interesting to better get a grasp of what legs can be expected post holiday.
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2 minutes ago, LPLC said:
1M possible in Sweden for A2 ?
I need to know the year end numbers for it, but as of now I wouldn't rule it out.
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On 12/25/2022 at 5:59 PM, Dale Cooper said:
So while I thought it was quite an underwhelming start in Sweden, it seems to have picked up during the week and it is doing great today and will be doing great through next week. Will not be doing any predictions right now, but certainly looking more promising than just a week ago.
It has continued to do really, really well from what I can see. Where I'm from I would think it has had about a 95% occupancy this week, while playing over 25 times a day. Did not expect this development after last weeks weekdays. The local IMAX screen has pretty much sold out all good screenings throughout next week already. Considering how it has performed it should hold very well into and through the next week until January 9th wheen schools are back.
As a side note, Avatar was at around 780k admits (I think) when after school break was over, I would think this will be in the same ballpark. Then, of course, Avatar sold another 700k ticket after that, The Way Of Water won't be able to replicate that at all. To beat the first in terms of gross it probably needs about 1030k admits, to beat the all time record another 60k.
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4 minutes ago, M37 said:
With that said, seating is a fixed quantity, and you'd still rather have seats filled by higher admits even with only a small return to theaters from that ticket (studios getting most), than a 75%-90% empty auditorium - can't sell snacks to someone who isn't in your building, even if they were only a hit 1 of every 5 or 10 visits.
Absolutely, it's about getting the right balance. There's many aspects of it.
For example, in my town right now Avatar is by far the most popular film. The movie theatres here probably would have done good to give just about every screen these days between Christmas and New Years to Avatar, to maximize profits right now. However, if they had done so they'd probably have lost a lot of the audience that watches other movies (who wouldn't have come if they can't go between these days) whereas with Avatar people would probably just see it next week or at a later screening instead.
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5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Not really sure about this. I'd wager family films sell very good amount of concessions for example despite their ATP being low.
I'm sure most does. I'm just saying that if you're willing to pay big for the ticket, you would logically be more willing to pay more for things around.
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New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
It's not impossible. It is highly, highly improbable. Never mind the fact that Avatar had insane holds in January, it also kept its 3D screens until Alice arrived early Mars. There is an argument that A2 will have much better legs because of the skew to IMAX/PLF than your regular big movie, but it will be losing them mid February to Ant Man. If Avatar had lost its 3D screens mid February instead, it probably would have made quite a bit less.