spizzer
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Posts posted by spizzer
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Animal's 201 min runtime won't help.
Dunkin subject matter seems slightly less local/relatable to prior Hirani films so I'm feeling soft on it.
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What are going expectations for Animal and Dunki?
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WTF happened here? This looks like it will actually flame out below 300 cr and well below TZH. Even without the World Cup I doubt it would have touched TZH.
Was it only BOI hyping this as a a potential 500+ cr film or was it the rest of the industry as well? Because missing that mark by >50% suggests that its beyond a WOM/reception problem...it was never contending.
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6 hours ago, Agafin said:
Saw this on reddit. Since this is coming from Nintendo themselves, this is as close to an actual as is possible. Mario sold 168.1m tickets on a box office of $1.349b for a global ATP of $8.02.
Came here literally to post this. Note that Nintendo says this estimate comes from Universal Pictures.
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48 minutes ago, Rtheimer said:
Top engagements
1-AMC Burbank 30 , B
2-AMC Empire 25, NYC, B
3-TCL Chinese , Hollywood CA, Opp
4-AMC Lincoln Squ, New York City , B
5-Regal Irvine Spectrum, Irvine, OPP
6-AMC Grove 14, Los Angeles, B
7-AMC Lincoln Squ, New york City, Opp
8-AMC Boston Common, B
9-AMC Century City, Century City CA, B
10-AMC Dine-in, Orlando FL, BTop Canada
1-Cineplex Scotiabank Toronto B ;Cineplex Yonge-Dundas , Toronto , B ; Cineplex Scotiabank, Toronto OPP (have Imax)DC/Northern VA presence in top 10 has dwindled. We had only 1 theater typically making the list, AMC Tysons, but increase of more multiplexes near there has eased it's demand.
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4 minutes ago, KC7 said:
The issue is, they're using Twilight as their comparison, thinking they're similarly female-skewing, and those movies did make half of their weekend gross on Friday.
Twilight: $35.987M Friday; $69.6M 1st weekend
Breaking Dawn 2: $71.1M Friday; $141M 1st weekend
But those were books that had diehard fans, and not a infinite number, so of course they were frontloaded. They're ignoring that Barbie has a wider potential audience, especially with its reviews. At least in my area, the theaters are close to sold out all weekend so there's no sign its going to burn through half of its audience on the first day.
Not only that, they're also (as always) ignoring Preview:True Friday ratio, choosing to just do the simplest comparison math possible by getting a total Friday number and applying an IM pulled from a comp, without questioning the splits that made up that Friday figure in the first place.
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8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Man, 70+ would be amazing. That’s in the same territory as Inception with ticket price inflation.It is?? It's been 13 years, I would think its more like 90M, especially with PLF prominence today.
[I feel like we have had this exact exchange multiple times in the past decade LOL]
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Exciting, historic weekend coming. Wish I was still in the tracking game.
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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
I think I am mostly wrong on this one 🙂 To me its defying gravity. Ratios seen are hitherto unseen.
That said Its too early for me to chime in even if I can. Let us see where things are later this evening. You never say not possible for this one for sure.
So 20M huh. 🙂
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Let's see how Megatron the Friday jump looks.
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Continues to follow Sonic 2
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I don't see why its all of a sudden going to perform worse than Sonic.
It kept momentum in its first weekend after burning $60M of demand Wed/Thu with kids off.
It kept momentum in its second weekend after burning $260M through 9 days.
Why should it lose it now?
$75M Over/Under 3rd weekend.
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4 hours ago, superduperm said:
Okay call it copium… but after drawing as many trends around Sonic 2 (our best comp) I actually think this isn’t just an okay or good number, it’s an excellent number and points to a really high 3rd weekend.
Sonic 2 dropped 29% on Sunday and then 83.2% on Monday to 810k. It then grossed 11.5M for the weekend.
Mario dropped 22.7% on Sunday and then if this holds it would be 82.4% on Monday to 5.35M. I’m not even going to post the 3rd weekend number you get with the Sonic 2 multiplier because it’s mind-blowing (and probably won’t be quite that high—but still it locks up $55M IMO and makes $60M very plausible).
3 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:I will for funsies!
Friday: $16.7MSaturday: $35.7M
Friday: $23.5M
3-Day: $75.9M
At which point the forum explodes.
Oh just you wait 😉
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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
hmm. probably like 725m+
Thanks.
Let's see what happens. I'm a believer in $700M, just needs a few more WTF holds in the coming weeks.
I wonder how this & TOTK will interplay with each other in terms of Nintendo mindshare taking over public. May 12 launch and I expect 12-15M units for Fri-Sun and then 20M+M by end of June (quarter end when they report results).
Nintendo's top 2 IPs driving ~$3B in global public spending in just 1 quarter is no small thing, there will be big buzz culturally around them this summer/year (highest grossing film & best selling game WW in the same year).
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17 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:
Even with a lower price skew, it would still need to break $700 million to be on par with NWH attendance.Yup and I expect it to be right around that in the end, which is why I'm curious.
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@charlie Jatinder What kind of gross does this need to be highest attended US film since Endgame? Strength of matinee shows and children tickets has to mean that ATP is materially lower than recent mega blockbusters (WOW 3D/PLF, TGM PLF, NWH probably more balanced and harder to reach).
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LMAO still going higher. Latest Sunday figure from DL ($30.45M) is down 3.9% from opening day, 11.9% from last Sunday, -22.2% from Sat, and still up 34.4% from Fri.
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8 minutes ago, Fanboy said:
Might be a stretch. Anything over 650M will be really hard without summer weekdays. Needs to go well over 65M next weekend if it's gonna do that. The 2nd place holder for biggest third weekend of all time is Avatar with 68.5M. The biggest non-New Years third weekend is Black Panther and it had cleared 500M by the end of that weekend.
Yup I expect >$65M next weekend. Nothing about it's run so far makes me feel like it can't continue to pull crazy holds. Running almost like a 90s/early-00s family film just with larger volume.
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I think this finishes within 95% of Maverick's final gross.
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2 minutes ago, JayPrimetown said:
I keep hearing about all this vacation in April. Schools have varying vacation times, but I'm not aware of any US companies that have the Monday after Easter as paid time off. Some give Good Friday off, but the Monday after Easter? Nope.
Yeah I'm just parroting what's being said honestly. I never got Good Friday or Easter Monday when I was in K-12 or now in employment.
Indian Box Office Thread | Jawan overtakes Pathaan, becomes highest grossing Indian movie of 2023
in International Box Office
Posted
From @charlie Jatinder
Animal Overseas Box Office Preview: Ranbir Kapoor film Set for Biggest Non SRK opening
Seems like global OD will cross 100 Cr.