TH1 is definitely beating Avengers worldwide.
Sorry if you guys don't see it, but it will. It won't win domestic, of that I am sure of and anyone thinking it will is just kidding themselves. It'll have a guaranteed decrease in admissions, but still large enough to maybe get to $480m. $500m is a slight possibility.
TH1 will probably have 20-30% decrease in admissions overseas from the developed markets, and that's understandable considering there was actually a very slight decrease with the LoTR films. But a 20% to 30% drop still gives it gargantuan numbers in developed markets, and the new markets will make it exceed $1b overseas.