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Quigley

ITALY (Botteghino): 'Inside Out 2' BREAKS opening-weekend record for Hollywood films

By Quigley, in International Box Office

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

Posted
Posted

CF made 5,9$M in its first 5 days (with an exchange rate of 0,73) (of which, 5M during OW). Mp1 should make 5$M in its OW (4 days).

IS will be for sure above 10$M on Sunday. 13-14$M is now a realistic goal IMHO.

On Saturday and on Sunday there will be "national premiere" of Penguins (that means that the movie will basically be out for two full days in a good number of theaters): I expect at least 2$M but it's difficult to predict.

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

Posted
Posted

Mockingjay OD $0.84m, almost on par with Catching Fire. That OD should lead to a $5m+ OW

 

Interstellar did $0.18m on Thursday. It should do between $1.5m-$2m this weekend. It should pass $10m on Saturday. 

 

In EU MokcingJay OD is better than CF

 

Mp1 OD Thur: 670K EU

CF OD Wed: 630K EU

CF 2ndDay Thur: 395K EU.

 

Today (Fri) Mp1 should do about 600K EU (750K $).

 

IS -42%, it was expected, 1,5-7$ for the Weekend.

 

Remeber that Penguins are coming on Sat on 350screens.

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

Posted
Posted

Best OW since Oct 2012 (since when movies open on Thur), datas in Euro.

 

  1. Sole a Catinelle 18,61 mln

  2. Breaking Dawn – Parte 2 8.28 mln

  3. Iron Man 3 6.94 mln

  4. The Hangover 3 6.12 mln

  5. Fast and furious 6 5.72 mln

  6. Skyfall 5.49 mln

  7. Despicable me 2 5.16 mln

  8. Maleficient 4,31 mln

  9. Hunger Games – Mockingjay parte 1 4,28 mln

  10. Lo Hobbit – An unexpected journey 4.28 mln

  11. Sotto una buona stella 4,25 mln

  12. Il principe abusivo 4.20 mln

  13. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 3,96 mln

  14. Un boss in Salotto 3,94 mln

  15. The Wolf of Wall Street 3,81 mln

  16. Hunger Games : Catching Fire 3,71 mln

  17. Thor 2: The Dark World 3.66 mln

  18. Lo Hobbit – The Desolation of Smaug 3,62 mln

  19. Django Unchained 3.45 mln

  20. The Croods 3.00 mln

 

CF 5days 4,36 mln EU ; MJp1 4days 4,28 mln EU.

 

 

IS -50% vs LW. It has made 1,55 mln $ and its total is 10,3$M! 13$M here we go!

 

Penguins made 1,3$M in 2 days. We will see next week what does it mean.

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edroger3 Box Office Gold

edroger3

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It seems at this point that 2014 could be the year with the lowest #1 grossing movie in more than a decade. No movies this year grossed more than 20M$ (or 15M€ if you want). The question is: new releases in last 4 week of the years will be able to do better than these in first 48? Look at this holidays predictions:

 

27/nov/2014
Penguins of Madagascar - Strong brand in Italy - over 20M$ 80%

 

Ogni maledetto Natale - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 10%

 

03/dec/2014
Dumb and Dumber To  - Original movie is well know but made 20 years ago - 20M$ 10%

 

04/dec/2014
Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 60%

 

Ma tu di che segno 6? - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 30%

 

17/dec/2014
Lo Hobbit - Battle of five amies - Final chapter can give a boost - over 20M$ 90%

 

18/dec/2014
L'amore bugiardo - Gone Girl - Can be a surprise - over 20M$ 20%

 

Il ragazzo invisibile - Rare local "superhero" movie by former oscar winner Gabriele Salvatores, totally umpredictable. - over 20M$ from 0 to 100%

 

Big Hero 6 - A bit disappointing like Wreck-it Ralph or super-successiful like Frozen? I think in a middle heart - over 20M$ 50%

 

Un Natale stupefacente - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 60%

 

 

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

Posted
Posted (edited)

It seems at this point that 2014 could be the year with the lowest #1 grossing movie in more than a decade. No movies this year grossed more than 20M$ (or 15M€ if you want). The question is: new releases in last 4 week of the years will be able to do better than these in first 48? Look at this holidays predictions:

 

27/nov/2014

Penguins of Madagascar - Strong brand in Italy - over 20M$ 80%

 

Ogni maledetto Natale - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 10%

 

03/dec/2014

Dumb and Dumber To  - Original movie is well know but made 20 years ago - 20M$ 10%

 

04/dec/2014

Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 60%

 

Ma tu di che segno 6? - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 30%

 

17/dec/2014

Lo Hobbit - Battle of five amies - Final chapter can give a boost - over 20M$ 90%

 

18/dec/2014

L'amore bugiardo - Gone Girl - Can be a surprise - over 20M$ 20%

 

Il ragazzo invisibile - Rare local "superhero" movie by former oscar winner Gabriele Salvatores, totally umpredictable. - over 20M$ from 0 to 100%

 

Big Hero 6 - A bit disappointing like Wreck-it Ralph or super-successiful like Frozen? I think in a middle heart - over 20M$ 50%

 

Un Natale stupefacente - Local Comedy - over 20M$ 60%

 

I think you're a little optimistic about the chances of some. I think only 3 movies have a real shot at 15-16 mln EU (20M$): Hobbit, Penguins and Ricco, Povero e il Maggiordomo.

 

Christmas 2012 (all in EU)

- Hobbit 16,4 mln

- Colpi di fulmine 10,0 mln (Local film)

- I due soliti idioti 8,7 mln (Local film)

- Tutto tutto, niente niente 8,6 mln (Local film)

- Life of Pi 8,4 mln

- Wreck it Ralph 6,7 mln.

 

Christmas 2013 (all in EU)

- Frozen 19,4 mln

- Hobbit 2 12,8 mln

- Colpi di fortuna 11,0 mln  (Local film)

- Un fantastico via vai 9,1 mln  (Local film)

- Indovina chi viene a Natale 7,4 mln  (Local film)

- Walter Mitty 6,0 mln

 

Excluding italian phenomenons like Zalone and Benvenuti al Nord, the last italian comedies to cross 15 mln EU were released in January 2011 and the last italian comedy released during Christmas to cross 15 mln EU was released in Dec. 2010.

 

Only "Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo" has a real chance (the main actors have an impressive track record: their movies made 17 mln in 1997, 23 mln in 1998, 29 mln in 2000, 23 mln in 2002, 16 mln in 2004, 13 mln in 2008, 22 mln in 2010. All datas are in euros).

Others local titles will all stay in the 6-12 Mln EU range.

 

Gone Girl will do well but crossing 8-10 mln EU would be really a very big success.

 

IMHO BH6 will perform more similar to WIR than Frozen.

 

It's improbable for DADT to make 15M EU, very very improbable. More than 8 would already be fantastic.

 

I hope I am wrong and you're right BTW ;)

Edited by Filmovie
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edroger3 Box Office Gold

edroger3

Posted
Posted

I think you're a little optimistic about the chances of some. I think only 3 movies have a real shot at 15-16 mln EU (20M$): Hobbit, Penguins and Ricco, Povero e il Maggiordomo.

 

Christmas 2012 (all in EU)

- Hobbit 16,4 mln

- Colpi di fulmine 10,0 mln (Local film)

- I due soliti idioti 8,7 mln (Local film)

- Tutto tutto, niente niente 8,6 mln (Local film)

- Life of Pi 8,4 mln

- Wreck it Ralph 6,7 mln.

 

Christmas 2013 (all in EU)

- Frozen 19,4 mln

- Hobbit 2 12,8 mln

- Colpi di fortuna 11,0 mln  (Local film)

- Un fantastico via vai 9,1 mln  (Local film)

- Indovina chi viene a Natale 7,4 mln  (Local film)

- Walter Mitty 6,0 mln

 

Excluding italian phenomenons like Zalone and Benvenuti al Nord, the last italian comedies to cross 15 mln EU were released in January 2011 and the last italian comedy released during Christmas to cross 15 mln EU was released in Dec. 2010.

 

Only "Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo" has a real chance (the main actors have an impressive track record: their movies made 17 mln in 1997, 23 mln in 1998, 29 mln in 2000, 23 mln in 2002, 16 mln in 2004, 13 mln in 2008, 22 mln in 2010. All datas are in euros).

Others local titles will all stay in the 6-12 Mln EU range.

 

Gone Girl will do well but crossing 8-10 mln EU would be really a very big success.

 

IMHO BH6 will perform more similar to WIR than Frozen.

 

It's improbable for DADT to make 15M EU, very very improbable. More than 8 would already be fantastic.

 

I hope I am wrong and you're right BTW ;)

It seems that our predictions are quite similar (Hobbit, Penguins and Il Ricco, Povero e il Maggiordomo are also my best bets). What do you think about "Il Ragazzo Invisibile"?

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

Posted
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It seems that our predictions are quite similar (Hobbit, Penguins and Il Ricco, Povero e il Maggiordomo are also my best bets). What do you think about "Il Ragazzo Invisibile"?

 

I am skeptical. I've seen a trailer in cinema and it hasn't had a good reception by the audience; so it would say 5-7 mln at most. But I could be wrong, honestly I never thought it could have been a success.

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