poland Poland Box Office | Avatar: The Way of Water is HUGE

[Pypa94]

Presales for Avengers: Endgame has started right now on 2nd biggest cinema chain Multikino

PS. Pre-screenings on Wednesday!!! hell yeah  (discount day)

Edited April 2, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

I'll try to clear up a situation of cinema networks in Poland:

The freshest data is from 2017 - there are 491 cinemas: 59 of them are multiplexes (more than 8 screens), 89 small multiplexes (3-7 screens) and 346 with 1-2 screens (studio cinemas).

 

1. Cinema City Poland (part of Cineworld PLC has cinemas in eg. UK, Israel, Hungary, Ireland or Czech Rep; they have IMAX, 4DX, VIP and ScreenX) - number one in Poland

• cinema share: 27% (not including studio cinemas)
• screens share: 39% (not including studio cinemas)

2. Multikino (now is part of  VUE Entertainment Group) - number two in Poland

• cinema share: 25%
• screen share: 27%

3. Helios (part of Group Agora S.A., one of the biggest media company in Poland, it has the biggest number of cinemas in the country, but the focus on smaller cities so they don't as many screens as above two) - number three in Poland

• cinema share: 35%
• screen share: 25%

4. Cinema 3D (from 2018 is a part of VUE Entertainment Group and soon they will be rebranded to Multikino, but when it happen we still don't know yet; it is worth mention that they also mostly focus on smaller cities)

• cinema share: 9%
• screen share: 5%

5. Rest: studio cinemas - private and public, they are in the big cities as an alternative to multiplexes and of course in small towns too

 

[Pypa94]

PRESALES of Avengers: Endgame 24.04.2019

PART 1

 

Columns from left to right: City; Name of Cinema (if it is); Time of Screening (blue color - sub, green color - dubb; the number of a cinema hall; the number of seats; Free Seats; Sold Seats; %capacity of screening; %capacity in this cinema

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

PART 2

Columns from left to right: City; Name of Cinema (if it is); Time of Screening (blue color - sub, green color - dubb; the number of a cinema hall; the number of seats; Free Seats; Sold Seats; %capacity of screening; %capacity in this cinema

[Pypa94]

.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

UPDATE PART 1

UPDATE PART 2

 

NEW CINEMA NETWORK PRESALES

 

That amount of ticket has been sold already would be enough to be in TOP10 of last weekend, and that just about 60% of the market and only one day! Insane

Edited April 3, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

Avengers: Endgame

presales info

The movie will have previews on 24th of April

There are 407 shows across the country (about 85% the of market)

Here there is a breakdown of shows.

	all	double screening
All shows	407	37	9% of all
2D	351	28	86%
3D	32		8%
IMAX	12	6	3%
4DX	6		1%
VIP	6	3	1%

For now, Endgame only for this one particular day (66% of the market) sold 30k tickets which are already about 57% of ALL tickets sold on preview's day of IW (100% market!)

~30k  compared to 52 711 (IW)

And still 19 days until the previews!

IW was released on 470 screens, I think EG will have more than 500 easily, maybe close to 550.

IW opened with FSS 271 279, 4day 334 901, with previews 387 612 and cume 1 225 208 (gross 26 145 165PLN ~ $6,8 million)

Now for I would see something like this: FSS 300k, 4day 375k, with previews 450k and cume a least 1,5 million (it can have higher avr. price of the ticket because of double screenings so about PLN33 million~ $8,6 million (+25%)

Although cume for EG is tricky to predict because of May's holiday which but for cinemas, a lot of people will be on holiday far from the cinema.

BUT I think that's a floor  

I hope I'm wrong and that's not even a basement 😜 

 

[Pypa94]

Avengers: Endgame presales UPDATE

only for pre-screenings on 24th of April

seats sold/all seats: 38 306/75 798   50,54%  (66% of the market)

 

If my math is correct EG should already beat final IW's numbers from its pre-screenings!  [IW had 52 711 (100% of the market) vs EG 38 306 (66% of the market) so multiplying numbers by share of market EG should be about 58k] 

And still, we have two weeks more of in advance presales.

 

For now there at least 416 shows including 2D (87%), 3D (8%), IMAX (3%), 4DX (1%), VIP (1%). There are 40 double screenings (IW+EG) which are close to 10% of all shows (31 - 2D, 6 - IMAX, 3 - VIP).

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1NnKXJn_mbdSsvP8udJwYGavpI4h_uH8B

this my excel sheet with numbers  

I'm focusing on 24.04.2019 mostly because of lack of time.

I will be updating every 3-4 days if I find some time

[Pypa94]

Avengers: Endgame OW

If it follows a pattern of IW

 

	FSS	4day	with prev
IW	271 249	334 901	387 612
		63 652	52 711
	+326%	+21%
		70 086 proj.	58 039 (based on presales)
EG	298 667 proj.	368 753 proj.	426 792 proj.

 

 

[Pypa94]

http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/a-jak-sie-ma-przedsprzedaz-biletow-na-avengers-endgame-w-polskich-kinach/?fbclid=IwAR0KAAZoo9UBtcWVNkD4OX5qbCI1AR4SrrRqQa-q1Zq1ew9BwKYeUCY3rSY

 

Guys from that website (they know a lot about Poland Box Office) said that Avengers: Endgame has already sold 120-130k tickets - most of the places presales are only for OW and previews - based on calculations and estimations.

IW had OW + previews 387 612 tickets and cume over 1,2 million.

Also, they're projecting that EG will smash all records for SH movie with an opening about 450k, 660k with previews and cume over 2 million! That's HUUUGE here! Will it really happen? I hope so

IW was the first movie over 1 million, well EG could be first over 2 million. That will definitely put EG in the top 5 of the year. 

Day after day EG is bigger and bigger, which is not easy here when local movies are so powerful and there is still not so many fans of SH movies.

The sky is a limit (as for sky I mean magic 3 million)? 

Hold your horses Pypson94 (yeah I'm referring to myself), let's wait till the OW

[Pypa94]

AVENGERS: ENDGAME passed with presales from 66% market whole previews day (100% market) of IW!!! (IW sold 52 711 tickets during previews day)

All seats	Free seats	Sold seats	Saturation%
81128	28389	52739	65,01%	(66% of the market)

If my math is right only presales for EG's previews day should bring about 90k and I'm hoping for strong walk-ins because of the discount day, especially in tier 2 and 3 cities.

To sum up: 24th of April (previews): starts at 4:30 pm (IMAX double screening) with at least 550 (maybe 600) shows that day

Numbers: 90k presales + 20k walk-ins (because of lack of new seats - saturation is already very high in polish standards)

Edited April 23, 2019 by Pypa94

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Pypa94 said:

AVENGERS: ENDGAME passed with presales from 66% market whole previews day (100% market) of IW!!! (IW sold 52 711 tickets during previews day)

All seats	Free seats	Sold seats	Saturation%
81128	28389	52739	65,01%	(66% of the market)

If my math is right only presales for EG's previews day should bring about 90k and I'm hoping for strong walk-ins because of the discount day, especially in tier 2 and 3 cities.

To sum up: 24th of April (previews): starts at 4:30 pm (IMAX double screening) with at least 550 (maybe 600) shows that day

Numbers: 90k presales + 20k walk-ins (because of lack of new seats - saturation is already very high in polish standards)

Still on track for 2 million total?

[Pypa94]

20 hours ago, Menor said:

Still on track for 2 million total?

I think we should wait until next weekend to say something about chances for 2 million. OW (5day) could 1,5x bigger than IW but that still is not locking anything more than IW total (over 1.2 million) cause EG will be more frontloaded for sure (as we can see in presales for previews). 2nd weekend is part of holidays, so basically 5 days free, many ppl will choose small vacations in the countryside or abroad if the weather won't be bad. Weekdays could be worse than normally especially in the biggest cities and countryside. These are speculations.

-----‐

Let's check history and some weather forecasts instead

Last year IW during May holiday and weekend after it sold 422 919 tickets (281 655 weekdays + 141 264 weekend). The weather was mixed last year, that had positive impact on numbers for sure.

This year the weather is going to be even worse! Storms across the country, a bit cold, this is not a good for trips. I think ppl will be "hiding" in shopping malls, cinemas, theaters and so on. MAY'S HOLIDAYS could be VERY helpful in "march" to 2 mln!

IW after 2nd weekend had 810 531 this year I can see over 1 millon tickets sold

Previews: 70-110k  105-125k (worst-best)

Thursday 25th: 55-75k  75-90k 

FSS: 295-350k   425-475k

5 days OW: 420-525k (+8,5%-35,5% over IW)   605-690k  (+54-68%)

Weekdays with a holiday (this year only 1 day is off [1st of May] but many ppl usually take 2nd of May off too): 230-300k

2nd weekend (Friday is a holiday): 150k-250k

After 2nd weekend: 800k-1075k

 

The worst scenario is impossible I think xd

Something in the middle maybe in high end is more likely to happen. 

 

EDIT: PREVIEWS IN HIGH END VERY POSSIBLE! so I changed my expectations!

GO BIG OR GO HOME!

Edited April 23, 2019 by Pypa94

[Pypa94]

After 1989 (modern time) there were 64 movies with FSS (some movies 4 days because no one care to separate previews 😅) over 300k in polish box office.

18 of them are local movies, 1 over 900k, 1 over 800k, 5 over 700k, 3 over 600k, 9 over 500k, 13 over 400k, 32 over 300k.

Only 3 or 4 of them didn't cross 1 million mark (eg. FF7, Twilight)

Most of them crossed 1,5 million, to cross 2 mln locked number in OW is over 600k but some movies crossed that with lower opening (just over 300k too with local movie)

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Pypa94 said:

After 1989 (modern time) there were 64 movies with FSS (some movies 4 days because no one care to separate previews 😅) over 300k in polish box office.

18 of them are local movies, 1 over 900k, 1 over 800k, 5 over 700k, 3 over 600k, 9 over 500k, 13 over 400k, 32 over 300k.

Only 3 or 4 of them didn't cross 1 million mark (eg. FF7, Twilight)

Most of them crossed 1,5 million, to cross 2 mln locked number in OW is over 600k but some movies crossed that with lower opening (just over 300k too with local movie)

 

Well it can't get legs of local movies right, so it would need closer to the high end of your prediction?

[Pypa94]

35 minutes ago, Menor said:

Well it can't get legs of local movies right, so it would need closer to the high end of your prediction?

Nope most of local movies legs are out of range, although some action movies and love comedies with mixed or bad wom has really ugly legs and even more frontloaded that Hollywood movies.

IW had pretty good legs almost 3,2x from 5day OW, 4,5x from FSS.

EG will be more frontloaded but also it could be watched by more new ppl who watched IW outside cinema. It will need at least 4x from 5day opening, possible but as I mentioned before 2nd weekend will be crucial. 

Upcoming premiers or should I say lack of premiers almost for a month till 24th of May and Alladin premiere is good sign (Pet Cemetary will took same adults which have already watched EG couple times, maybe Curse of the Llarona and Wonder Park on 10th too but it's a fraction). 

If not now when CBM movie would cross 2 million?! 

I sign my name on it 1,5 million is damn locked and 2 million is 50-50 for now

[Pypa94]

LAST UPDATE for previews on 24th Wednesday 

In about 15h first screenings starts (IMAX double feature IW+EG)

In my calculations, I add a small cinema chain (5% of the market) so now I have 71% share.

All seats	Free seats	Sold seats	Saturation%
99131	31782	67289	67,88%	(71% of market)

 

Multiplying it by share presales are more than 94k!

There are at least 557 shows today.

	normal	double screening
All shows	512	45
2D sub	332	36
2D dub	125
3D	36
IMAX	6	6
4DX	9
VIP	4	3

I noticed 11 full sold out shows and another 40 sold over 90%! Insane numbers for me.

I think final saturation could be close to 85% so we might have a chance for EVEN high end of my expectations 120k but for confirmation probably we'll have to wait until Monday at least (some numbers in USD should be available sooner but admissions could only be guessed from it, dk average ticket price, inflated a lot by eg. double screenings).

 

In the evening after my double IMAX screening, I will check numbers for 25th, not so widely as now because of tons shows during the day, but I'll check some big cinemas across the country and all big formats like IMAX, VIP, 4DX, ScreenX and ATMOS.

 

THANOS came here to take half of the box office (in the SHM/CBM standard), the Rescue Team aka Avengers will take nice revenge on him with a healthy increase or almost doubling its numbers? 

Previews of EG=2xIW --> 105 422 (95% chance I think)

5day of EG=2xIW --> 775 224 (20% chance)

Cume of EG=2xIW --> 2 450 500 (0,5% chance)

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Pypa94 said:

LAST UPDATE for previews on 24th Wednesday 

In about 15h first screenings starts (IMAX double feature IW+EG)

In my calculations, I add a small cinema chain (5% of the market) so now I have 71% share.

All seats	Free seats	Sold seats	Saturation%
99131	31782	67289	67,88%	(71% of market)

 

Multiplying it by share presales are more than 94k!

There are at least 557 shows today.

	normal	double screening
All shows	512	45
2D sub	332	36
2D dub	125
3D	36
IMAX	6	6
4DX	9
VIP	4	3

I noticed 11 full sold out shows and another 40 sold over 90%! Insane numbers for me.

I think final saturation could be close to 85% so we might have a chance for EVEN high end of my expectations 120k but for confirmation probably we'll have to wait until Monday at least (some numbers in USD should be available sooner but admissions could only be guessed from it, dk average ticket price, inflated a lot by eg. double screenings).

 

In the evening after my double IMAX screening, I will check numbers for 25th, not so widely as now because of tons shows during the day, but I'll check some big cinemas across the country and all big formats like IMAX, VIP, 4DX, ScreenX and ATMOS.

 

THANOS came here to take half of the box office (in the SHM/CBM standard), the Rescue Team aka Avengers will take nice revenge on him with a healthy increase or almost doubling its numbers? 

Previews of EG=2xIW --> 105 422 (95% chance I think)

5day of EG=2xIW --> 775 224 (20% chance)

Cume of EG=2xIW --> 2 450 500 (0,5% chance)

 

this is unprecedented for a CBM right?

[Pypa94]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

this is unprecedented for a CBM right?

yep, IW is ONLY CBM with more than 1 million tickets sold, so yes EG is making (for now) its own league, a way higher level!

EG can have 1 million after 10 days, and over IW after 12 days and still 2 weeks of almost clear run over 2 million