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Pypa94

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  1. If you want to know more about Polish Box Office I recommend you that site: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/ Just use google translation and most of things will be clear Unfortunately I didn't have time to update the thread 😕 Thanks @Aristis for last post Novemember/December are months were good weather is usually over, so it is good time for new movies What's more we had Santa's Day on 6th so family movies (and others too) had soft drops or even increases. Next weekend was usually dead but since Star Wars movies are released on that particular weekend (one wkd before Christmas) - they are massive nowadays. This year because of Christmas in the middle of week there won't be +70% drop weekend for sure (the worst weekend in the year is always a weekend with Easter but Chirstmas Eve on Saturday ruins movies as well). As for Star Wars is really great that slowest day will be Christmas Eve on Tuesday which really doesn't matter because it is Tuesday, Thursday 26th on the other hand will be massive and we can expect kind of soft drop on wkd after Christmas I think it will have great 3 week total thanks to fandom, Chirstamas, New Year and last but not least Three Wise Man holiday on 6th (Monday). If WOM will be great it could challenge Frozen II as biggest 2019 release, otherwise only passing 2mln adm will be a goal. Frozen II has great run so far, and I'm pretty sure it will pass TLK (sad face), soft drop of course related to weather and Santa's Day (schools helped a lot) and 3rd wkd number is 2nd biggest ever 3rd wkd number (behind only the biggest movie of last 20 years).
  2. WE 7th-9th of June ACTUALS Detective Pikachu still on top but huge (although expected) drop Dark Phoenix with quite good OW considering X-Men is weak here Rocketman disappoints big Big drops overall except eg. John Wick 3 and again Five Feet Apart Avengers: Endgame collapsing (heading 1875k) Aladdin crosses 300k, UglyDolls 100k #1 Detective Pikachu #2 Dark Phoenix #3 Aladdin #4 Rocketman #5 UglyDolls #6 John Wick 3 #7 Five Feet Apart #8 Avengers: Endgame #9 The Convent #10 Большое путешествие --------------------- Detective Pikachu over 400k and heading max. 900k Dark Phoenix with 23% lower OW than X-Men: Apocalypse Comparison with other X-Men movies: from top: The Last Bastion, First Class, Days of Future Past, Apocalypse, Dark Phoenix NEW MOVIES: Rocketman weak weak weak HOLDOVERS: Avengers: Endgame struggle to get 1,9 million John Wick 3 heading 350k maybe (a big increase from 2nd part) NEXT WE: Godzilla: King of the Monsters - very wide/saturated Men in Black: International - very wide Red Joan - wide Krew Boga (local) - wide Marnies Welt (Belgium, Germany) - wide sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/wysokie-temperatury-na-zewnatrz-niska-frekwencja-w-kinach-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,418
  3. WE 31st-2nd of June ACTUALS Detective Pikachu with huge OW numbers! Aladdin with the expected increase #2 UglyDolls - quite good OW New movies: weak Big increase: Wonder Park and Большое путешествие Avengers: Endgame excellent drop! John Wick 3 another good drop Five Feet Apart small numbers but holding good #1 Detective Pikachu #2 Aladdin #3 UglyDolls #4 Wonder Park #5 Большое путешествие #6 John Wick 3 #7 Avengers: Endgame #8 Five Feet Apart #9 The Convent #10 (local) --------------------- Detective Pikachu with #8 biggest OW of the year (1k below Captain Marvel) NEW MOVIES: UglyDolls good numbers boosted by Children's Day The Convent weak Dzień czekolady (local) very weak HOLDOVERS: Avengers: Endgame still fighting but only for 1,9 million now John Wick 3 already best of series and counting NEXT WE: Dark Phoenix - very wide Rocketman - wide Dronningen (Dennmark, Sweden) - limited sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/detektyw-pikachu-zdecydowanym-zwyciezca-w-dzien-dziecka-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,417
  4. WE 24th-26th of May ACTUALS Aladdin debuts on 1st but with mediocre numbers Other new movies: nothing good Good hold: John Wick 3 Very good hold but weak numbers: Five Feet Apart and Long Shot Avengers: Endgame with 50,24% drop - moderate drop #1 Aladdin #2 John Wick 3 #3 Avengers: Endgame #4 Wonder Park #5 Five Feet Apart #6 Long Shot #7 Большое путешествие #8 Gloria Bell #9 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile #10 Brightburn --------------------- Aladdin with lower numbers than Dumbo, big disappoint. NEW MOVIES: Большое путешествие extremely bad considering wide OW Gloria Bell expected Brightburn slightly below expectation HOLDOVERS: Avengers: Endgame goodbye 2 million tickets but still big numbers overall John Wick 3 just 16k from a total of John Wick 2 NEXT WE: CHILDREN'S DAY on Saturday 1st of June - most of the movies expected with huge increases Detective Pikachu - saturated (for sure TOP next WE) UglyDolls - very wide The Convent - wide Dzień czekolady (local) - wide The Sun Is Also a Star - limited Sauvage (France) - limited Pestkop (Netherlands) - limited sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/aladyn-wygrywa-ale-ze-slabym-wynikiem-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,416
  5. WE 17th-19th of May ACTUALS John Wick 3 on TOP! No other new movie in the top 10 Good holds across top 10 (except The Course of La Llorona) Avengers: Endgame with 48,64% drop (best so far for it) #1 John Wick 3 #2 Avengers: Endgame #3 Wonder Park #4 Five Feet Apart #5 Long Shot #6 The Course of La Llorona #7 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile #8 (local) #9 Pet Sematary #10 Missing Link --------------------- John Wick 3 with biggest franchise OW! With previews, it almost beat John Wick and it is 45% of final John Wick 2! OW was respectively 202% (!) and 62% better! After that John Wick 3 is heading over 300k, 3x bigger than part 1 and over 50% bigger than part 2. Very good result! NEW MOVIES: Let’s Dance (France) 3 791 adm./about 100 screens Doubles vies (France) 6 214/?? Tolkien 5 298/?? HOLDOVERS: Avengers: Endgame hold slice worse than IW last year (48,6% vs 44,1%) - IW faced Deadpool 2 (OW much bigger than JW3 although other movies were weaker a lot) - it's the best WE-to-WE hold so far for EG. Unfortunately 2 million for 98% out of range Others: good hold for #2-4 but numbers meh (although last year numbers were meh-er 😜) Wonder Park with 100k milestone (worth mentioned). The Course of La Llorona with an expected big drop, as well as Pet Sematary. Missing Link with 200k milestone - biggest for Laika studio in Poland. NEXT WE: Aladdin - saturated (for sure TOP next WE) Brightburn - very wide Pupille (France) - very wide Большое путешествие (Russia) - very wide Gloria Bell - wide 寝ても覚めても [Asako I & II] (Japan) - limited Nos batailles (Belgium, France) - limited sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/john-wick-po-raz-pierwszy-na-szczycie-polskiego-box-officeu-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,415
  6. Avengers: Endgame vs Infinity War 4th WE comparison Adm.: est. 53,5k vs 47 315 Drop: -48% vs -40,1% Cume: est. 1,720M vs 1 095 696 Facing: John Wick 3 (OW est. 80k) and 4 minors vs Deadpool 2 (OW 209 194) and 1 minor After 4th WE IW added almost 130k (about 12% of cume after 4th WE) ---> EG with same legs: 205k and cume 1,925M But EG is suffering worse legs than IW so 1,9M is more possible. I would say less than 10% chance for 2 million ATM.
  7. As per BOM after 3rd weekend Avengers: Endgame has collected $9,215,075. It is running 50,5% over IW gross at the same moment. It is also 25% over IW final gross. EG has in lc 35,242,133 which is 61% ahead of IW and 51% over IW final gross in lc. As we can see it is slowing down a bit, it is facing worse drops that IW but still overall is a huge success for EG!
  8. https://deadline.com/2019/05/john-wick-chapter-3-hits-35m-in-overseas-bow-pikachu-nears-300m-global-as-endgame-tops-2-6b-ww-international-box-office-1202618380/ Strong holds came from Japan (-33%), Peru (-36%), Denmark (-41%), Spain (-43%), Chile (-43%), Colombia (-43%), Australia (-46%), Poland (-48%), Ecuador (-48%), Singapore (-49%), UK (-50%), Norway (-50%) and South Africa (-50%). As per Deadline Avengers: Endgame had a very good hold In my forecast, I was thinking a similar drop (-46%) because of John Wick 1 and 2 no big deal here but it seems that John Wick 3 is bigger than combined 1+2 OW, still it didn't have a large impact on EG hold and of course storms across the country helped a bit. We will see how it goes with actuals on Wednesday EDIT: With that drop, EG now is about 1,720 million adm. still hard to say if 2 million possible of not. I would say OW of Dark Phoenix will be crucial. If it drops out from top 10 then, 2 million will be out of range.
  9. Weekend 10-12th of May actuals # | Movie |Distr. |Adm. WE|Drop/gain| Last WE | Weekdays| Screens | Average |Cume adm.| Week #1 Avengers: Endgame #2 Wonder Park NEW #3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW #4 Long Shot NEW #5 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW #6 Five Feet Apart NEW #7 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW #8 Pet Sematary #9 Missing Link #10 After ----------- Avengers: Endgame hold is quite good considering much better weather than last WE and Holiday boost in previous WE. Weekdays were a bit harsh lower than last week but no holidays this time. Cume now is 2nd highest in 2019. It is now about 400k (+32%) more than final IW adm., pacing 63,3% over IW in the same point of release, a final advantage over IW should be between 55-60% (63% in somehow manage 2 million). IW dropped only 40,1% last year but it was facing 4 new movies (Rampage OW was highest but still lower than lowest OW this weekend) instead of 6 like EG - the competition was way stronger. It has a similar path as The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug here although it had Christmas holiday and then January so more favorable for movies time than the middle of May (even if the weather is as bad as now it is). After 2nd WE EG had 18k more than Hobbit 2 and after 3rd WE it has 17k less. After 4th WE Hobbit 2 had 1,768M which is probably impossible for EG (only 25% week-to-week drop), Hobbit 2 late legs were horrible and in the end it failed to manage 2 million. Considering everything it is still pacing 1,9M adm. It will be hurt next week by Aladdin, we will see how much though (IW had DP2) NEW MOVIES: Wonder Park good OW, it heading to 300k final. La Llorona - slightly worse than Pet Sematary, huge drop next week. Long Shot - best OW for Seth Rogen here, he is well known here but his movies aren't popular (I know weird) but it could first his movie over 200k. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - the same with Zac Efron: quite popular here, OW is better than e.g. Baywatch. Five Feet Apart in line with expectations. The local movie was a bit better than in the forecast. HOLDOVERS: Pet Sematary - huuge drop but in next weeks should hold better than La Llorona (average WOM for both but still Pet Sematary higher) Missing Link - huuge drop too but its final gross could neck-to-neck with Wonder Park. After with the best hold in top 10 and overall quite good too. Dumbo dropped out from top 10, hurt by Wonder Park. NEXT WE: John Wick 3 Tolkien Breath (Australia) Doubles vies (France) Let's Dance Zlogonje (limited; Serbia) sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengersendgame-coraz-dalej-od-2-mln-wysyp-nowosci-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,414
  10. AVENGERS: ENDGAME #2 highest movie of the year in Poland! 3rd WE est. 101k (-56,5%) cume: est. 1,62M so I was a quite correct in WE adm. but it seems like weekdays were weaker than I thought (bigger post-holiday drop) Actuals tomorrow (or I should say today) about 6 pm local time
  11. I think I was a bit too optimistic with over 100k numbers. Avengers: Endgame should remain 1st spot but the drop was steeper. All new movies should be in top 10 but far from EG. #1 EG (-61%) #2 Wonder Park NEW #3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW #4 Five Feet Apart NEW #5 Long Shot NEW #6 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW #7 Pet Sematary (-53%) #8 Missing Link (-57%) #9 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW #10 Dumbo (-51%) source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-koniec-gry-juz-ponizej-100-tys-w-weekend-prognoza-weekendowa/
  12. AVENGERS: ENDGAME Road to 2 million source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-nadal-rzadzi-w-polskich-kinach/ As I mentioned in previous posts if Endgame follows Infinity War it will hit 2 million tickets sold at the end (even 2,1 million). But the same as in many countries EG is more frontloaded than its predecessor so I predicted final admission number on 1,9 million (still HUGE here). BOZG team analyzed in past couple years what is a probability for EG to top 2 million adm. In the last 6 years, only 6 movies had more admissions after 2nd weekend than EG (Kler (local) was 2,5 million after 2nd WE so it's not good comparison here and it's not in the table), another 5 were a bit lower but within 40k difference at most. What is encouraging - only 2 of them didn't reach 2-million-milestone (Hobbit 2 and FSOG - both with mixed and bad WOM, FSoG only that big because of Valentine's Day boost) and both were lower after the 2nd weekend. But there another side of the coin, EG has the lowest 2nd weekend of all those movies. Here in the table full comparison of those movies in recent years. Title Adm. after 2nd WE Adm. in 2nd WE Adm. cume Pitbull. Niebezpieczne kobiety (local) 1 653 378 454 488 2 884 415* Listy do M. 3 (local) 1 623 149 493 190 3 013 235 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 1 613 006 320 034 2 243 204 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 1 555 916 422 088 3 009 949* Botoks (local) 1 458 609 392 199 2 319 702 Avengers: Endgame 1 419 410 232 747 ???? Listy do M. 2 (local) 1 417 275 434 401 2 968 327 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 1 401 575 241 202 1 930 793 Fifty Shades of Grey 1 388 491 242 044 1 814 116 Kobiety mafii (local) 1 384 563 388 943 2 037 202 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 1 380 851 258 789 2 111 569* *including re-releases - without them still 2 million reached! CHANCES for 2 million - 35%, final range: 1,9-2,05 million adm.
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