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Pypa94

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About Pypa94

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  1. Weekend 10-12th of May actuals # | Movie |Distr. |Adm. WE|Drop/gain| Last WE | Weekdays| Screens | Average |Cume adm.| Week #1 Avengers: Endgame #2 Wonder Park NEW #3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW #4 Long Shot NEW #5 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW #6 Five Feet Apart NEW #7 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW #8 Pet Sematary #9 Missing Link #10 After ----------- Avengers: Endgame hold is quite good considering much better weather than last WE and Holiday boost in previous WE. Weekdays were a bit harsh lower than last week but no holidays this time. Cume now is 2nd highest in 2019. It is now about 400k (+32%) more than final IW adm., pacing 63,3% over IW in the same point of release, a final advantage over IW should be between 55-60% (63% in somehow manage 2 million). IW dropped only 40,1% last year but it was facing 4 new movies (Rampage OW was highest but still lower than lowest OW this weekend) instead of 6 like EG - the competition was way stronger. It has a similar path as The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug here although it had Christmas holiday and then January so more favorable for movies time than the middle of May (even if the weather is as bad as now it is). After 2nd WE EG had 18k more than Hobbit 2 and after 3rd WE it has 17k less. After 4th WE Hobbit 2 had 1,768M which is probably impossible for EG (only 25% week-to-week drop), Hobbit 2 late legs were horrible and in the end it failed to manage 2 million. Considering everything it is still pacing 1,9M adm. It will be hurt next week by Aladdin, we will see how much though (IW had DP2) NEW MOVIES: Wonder Park good OW, it heading to 300k final. La Llorona - slightly worse than Pet Sematary, huge drop next week. Long Shot - best OW for Seth Rogen here, he is well known here but his movies aren't popular (I know weird) but it could first his movie over 200k. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - the same with Zac Efron: quite popular here, OW is better than e.g. Baywatch. Five Feet Apart in line with expectations. The local movie was a bit better than in the forecast. HOLDOVERS: Pet Sematary - huuge drop but in next weeks should hold better than La Llorona (average WOM for both but still Pet Sematary higher) Missing Link - huuge drop too but its final gross could neck-to-neck with Wonder Park. After with the best hold in top 10 and overall quite good too. Dumbo dropped out from top 10, hurt by Wonder Park. NEXT WE: John Wick 3 Tolkien Breath (Australia) Doubles vies (France) Let's Dance Zlogonje (limited; Serbia) sources: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengersendgame-coraz-dalej-od-2-mln-wysyp-nowosci-podsumowanie-weekendu/ https://www.sfp.org.pl/box_office,414
  2. AVENGERS: ENDGAME #2 highest movie of the year in Poland! 3rd WE est. 101k (-56,5%) cume: est. 1,62M so I was a quite correct in WE adm. but it seems like weekdays were weaker than I thought (bigger post-holiday drop) Actuals tomorrow (or I should say today) about 6 pm local time
  3. I think I was a bit too optimistic with over 100k numbers. Avengers: Endgame should remain 1st spot but the drop was steeper. All new movies should be in top 10 but far from EG. #1 EG (-61%) #2 Wonder Park NEW #3 The Curse of La Llorona NEW #4 Five Feet Apart NEW #5 Long Shot NEW #6 Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile NEW #7 Pet Sematary (-53%) #8 Missing Link (-57%) #9 Słodki koniec dnia (local) NEW #10 Dumbo (-51%) source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-koniec-gry-juz-ponizej-100-tys-w-weekend-prognoza-weekendowa/
  4. AVENGERS: ENDGAME Road to 2 million source: http://boxoffice-bozg.pl/avengers-nadal-rzadzi-w-polskich-kinach/ As I mentioned in previous posts if Endgame follows Infinity War it will hit 2 million tickets sold at the end (even 2,1 million). But the same as in many countries EG is more frontloaded than its predecessor so I predicted final admission number on 1,9 million (still HUGE here). BOZG team analyzed in past couple years what is a probability for EG to top 2 million adm. In the last 6 years, only 6 movies had more admissions after 2nd weekend than EG (Kler (local) was 2,5 million after 2nd WE so it's not good comparison here and it's not in the table), another 5 were a bit lower but within 40k difference at most. What is encouraging - only 2 of them didn't reach 2-million-milestone (Hobbit 2 and FSOG - both with mixed and bad WOM, FSoG only that big because of Valentine's Day boost) and both were lower after the 2nd weekend. But there another side of the coin, EG has the lowest 2nd weekend of all those movies. Here in the table full comparison of those movies in recent years. Title Adm. after 2nd WE Adm. in 2nd WE Adm. cume Pitbull. Niebezpieczne kobiety (local) 1 653 378 454 488 2 884 415* Listy do M. 3 (local) 1 623 149 493 190 3 013 235 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 1 613 006 320 034 2 243 204 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 1 555 916 422 088 3 009 949* Botoks (local) 1 458 609 392 199 2 319 702 Avengers: Endgame 1 419 410 232 747 ???? Listy do M. 2 (local) 1 417 275 434 401 2 968 327 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 1 401 575 241 202 1 930 793 Fifty Shades of Grey 1 388 491 242 044 1 814 116 Kobiety mafii (local) 1 384 563 388 943 2 037 202 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 1 380 851 258 789 2 111 569* *including re-releases - without them still 2 million reached! CHANCES for 2 million - 35%, final range: 1,9-2,05 million adm.
  5. BOM update gross for Avengers: Endgame after 2nd weekend Avengers: Infinity War 2nd weekend: $932 130 ~ lc 3 310 926 (-63,6%), cume: $5 070 284 ~ lc 18 009 649 Avengers: Endgame 2nd weekend: $1 422 284 ~ lc 5 432 129 (-69,6% from 5 days OW; +52,6% over $IW; lc +64,1%) cume: $8 106 354 ~ lc 30 960 598 (+59,9% over $IW; lc +71,9%) ------- Still USD is higher (about 8%) than last year, so advantage over IW in lc is even more impressive than in USD ATP $6,11 ~ lc 23,34 (higher ATP than on OW 🤔 maybe they split double features between IW and EG that's why OW ATP could be so low) ------- But even with that IW currency advantage, EG has already beaten final gross of IW ($7 367 423)
  6. Actuals of 3rd-5th of Mat #1 Avengers: Endgame 232 747 (-57,5%) cume: 1 419 410 NEW: #2 Pet Sematary 57 723 (best OW for horror movie this year) #10 Iron Sky: Invasion 6 496 (1/2 OW of first Iron Sky in 2012) Rest (numbers in table I'll add later): #3 Missing Link #4 Dumbo #5 After #6 Manou - flieg' flink! #7 Vox Lux #8 Green Book #9 Miłość i miłosierdzie (local) And the promissed table:
  7. I checked our biggest database about movies filmweb.pl (similar to IMDB) with interest of upcoming movies. For MAY is something like that: 1. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - 18 937 - premiere: 10th of May 2. Aladdin - 14 409 - premiere: 24th of May 3. John Wick 3 - 13 905 - premiere: 17th of May 4. Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 13 710 - premiere: 31st of may 5. Tolkien - 12 455 - premiere: 17th of May I don't think that means OW will be in that order, especially Aladdin and Detective Pikachu that we should consider as animation for kids (older but still kids) so not many "want to see" clicks here. To reference Avengers: Endgame has now 24 564 "want to see" and 59 884 votes with a rating. (at least 2/3 of votes were "want to see" before) I checked also for every announced premiere how many "want to see" votes they have, here is top 10. 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 39 513 premiere: 9th of August 2. The Lion King - 25 748 - 19th of July 3. Dark Phoenix - 21 743 - 7th of June 4. Joker - 21 622 - 4th of October 4. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 20 432 - 5th of July 5. Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile - 18 937 - 10th of May 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 17 488 - 19th of December 7. Toy Story 4 - 16 217 - 9th of August 8. Aladdin - 14 409 - 24th of May 9. John Wick 3 - 13 905 - 17th of May 10. Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 13 710 - 31st of May
  8. On the first page, I add some info about the history of box office here ---------- AVENGERS: ENDGAME IS NOW HIGHEST CBM/SHM MOVIE ALL-TIME! ---------- AVENGERS: ENDGAME 1st weekdays (Mon-Thur): est. 371k (only 1 day of holiday) (+24% over IW), 1st week total: est. 1,186 million (+77% over IW!!!) 2nd weekend: est. 233k (-57,5% vs OW FSS, -; +39% over IW) Cume after 2nd weekend: est. 1,419 million (+75% over IW!!!) AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR 1st weekdays (Mon-Thu): 281 655 (inflated by 2 days of holiday), 1st week total: 669 267 2nd weekend: 141 264 (-47,9%) Cume after 2nd weekend: 810 531 ---------- As we can see EG is more frontloaded that IW BUT we have to remember that OW of EG was ENORMOUS over 2x bigger that IW (FSS, 5 days even more) AND EG has already edged out IW total numbers! EG only needed about 10 or 11 days to beat IW whole run! After 2 weekends IW numbers are lower than 5 days OW of EG! Amazing! But unfortunately, that kind of drop is (most probably) closing the way to 2 million adm. IW added 414 677 after 2nd weekend (2,93x of 2nd weekend) EG with 2,93x --> +684k and cume 2,1 million adm. But drops seem to be heavier than IW. IW rest of run 2nd weekdays (Mon-Thur): 98 164 (-65,1%; post holiday drop), 2nd week total: 908 695 3rd weekend: 84 579 (-40,1%) --> cume after 3rd weekend: 993 274 3rd weekdays (Mon-Thur): 55 107 (-43,9%), 3rd week total: 1 048 381 4th weekend: 47 315 (-44,1%) --> cume after 4th weekend: 1 095 696 (very good drop facing Deadpool 2 - although probably other demo) 4th weekdays (Mon-Thur): 27 149 (-50,7%), 4th week total: 1 122 845 5th weekend: 18 572 (-60,7%) --> cume after 5th weekend: 1 141 417 (big drop facing Solo - the same demo I guess) 5th weekdays (Mon-Thur): 17 862 (-34,2%), 5th week total: 1 159 279 6th weekend: 18 006 (-3,1%) --> cume after 6th weekend: 1 177 283 (almost flat thanks to Children's Day) note: after 6th weekend it dropped out from top 10 so I don't have numbers for each weekend and week but it added 47 925 from late legs ----------- EG estimates for rest of run 2nd weekdays (Mon-Thur): 115k (-69%; post-holiday drop), 2nd week total: 1,534 million 3rd weekend (10-12th): 105k (-55%) --> cume after 3rd weekend: 1,639 million (facing The Curse of La Llorona, Wonder Park, Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile- they will take some older and some younger and some teenagers) 3rd weekdays (Mon-Thur): 57k (-49,5%), 3rd week total: 1,696 million 4th weekend (17-19th): 57k (-46%) --> cume after 4th weekend: 1,753 million (facing John Wick 3 - nothing big here) 4th weekdays (Mon-Thur): 32k (-44%), 4th week total: 1,785 million 5th weekend (24-26th): 22k (-62%) --> cume after 5th weekend: 1,807 million (facing Alladin - similar demo, could be hard a lot) 5th weekdays (Mon-Thur): 19k (-40%), 5th week total: 1,826 million 6th weekend (31-2nd): 15k (-32%) --> cume after 6th weekend: 1,841 million (facing Detective Pikachu but also Children's Day - drop will be lower) late legs: 50-60k (better WOM than IW) ---> TOTAL 1,9 million We will if that is possible to happen or not Next 2 weekend will be important, 2 weeks of clear run almost no competition
  9. Actually is not so big (huge though) it cumulative from 4 re-releases, first release in 1963 or 62, for nowadays standards yeah it is enormous but before 1989 I would say I was basically normal here All time top movie is local called Krzyżacy (The Knights of the Cross or The Teutonic Knights) based on novel from 1900. The film was released in 1960 in two parts as first of big national production co-founded from government money. Total cume over the years is 32 315 695, so basically that time everyone in the country saw it From foreign movies probably all time best is Apache Gold (German: Winnetou, later retitled to Winnetou – 1. Teil), also known as Winnetou the Warrior a 1963 Western film based on German novels. Cume of this movie is about 23 million adm. Numbers of that movies are untouchable nowadays, after 1989 best movie in box office is With Fire and Sword from 1999 with 7 151 354 adm. and that is with a big help from schools because that was compulsory for, I think, every school to see this movie because it's based on a novel, the first part in The Trilogy of Henryk Sienkiewicz [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trilogy] which was and still is required reading in schools.
  10. POLAND Gone with the Wind - 12+ million Titanic - 3 655 866 Avatar - 3 771 267 Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope - 5+ million (first release in 1979 with 2 880 000, 1997 re-release 576 680) E.T. - 3 625 012 The Avengers: Endgame - 1,85-2,1 million The Avengers: Infinity War - 1 225 208 Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens - 3 009 949 Jaws - 6 029 590 The Lion King - 2 923 938
  11. Hello, thanks to staff I am now new moderator of this thread on first page in next days I will add some numbers and I'll try to update title and numbers every week Cheers
  12. TOP 20 all time (after 1989) as of 31st of December 2018. From 2019 one or two movies might join it (SW IX if it is good and maybe local) but unfortunately, that won't be A:EG. (What is nice to see that TFA finally cross the upper-blockbuster line of 3 million adm. - till now official number was like 10-15k or so less)
  13. As per BOM (ER on OD) - 5 days OW Avengers: Endgame $4,676,158 (+82,4%) ~ 18,022,380 PLN (+102,7%) Avengers: Infinity War $2,563,813 ~ 8,892,585 PLN EG Adm. 814 927 (+111,8%) --> ATP $5.74 ~ 22.11 PLN (USD is now 11% stronger) IW Adm. 387 611 --> ATP $6.61 ~ 22.94 PLN ------- That's strange for me, I thought that ATP will be much higher in local currency because of double features. I hoped for $5 million. Still, it exceeded all hopes and expectations, more than double previous record CBM/SHM in adm., in lc and almost in USD!
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