Shawn Robbins

Joy 2.6

Fear confirmed on that one. Between its nature as an adventure movie and having an older audience, it's clearly strongest in matinees. I was skeptical that had been accounted for in the 8.8 projection yesterday afternoon.

2.3 and 2.6, respectively. Numbers this early from this source often go up, though I haven't tracked them as much this summer so this is just raw info passing along.

Fan base and poor WOM midsummer. Nope barely did around 2x last July and wasn't a 5th movie in a series.

Figuring that will do much better in the evening. Hopefully.

Fri+previews. Black Phone even just had over a 2x multi for true Friday last summer, and that was an original (with early access, granted). Wouldn't be shocked if Insidious does sub-2x with its early WOM, but let's see how it goes.

Early Fri #s from official channels: Insidious 13.0 Indy 8.8 SOF 5.0 JoyR 2.8 I think most of these go up, but maybe Indy less so. Insidious should, in theory, benefit from evening shows.

Big LRF update on Barbie coming later tonight or early tomorrow. What the regional ticket counters are seeing is happening in a ton of places. Going (somewhat) bullish on Mutant Mayhem before sales start, as well.

Indy $7.2M

Ruby $725K

Being told an official Indy number should be landing in the next 15 minutes or so.

Mainly a reply for @emoviefan here, but... First and foremost, I think it's important to not get too emotionally involved in box office numbers. If these are movies you're personally excited for, then lean on that. I know from personal experience how challenging that can be, but at the end of the day, a bunch of internet conjecture and analysis paralysis can be very toxic (even when it's not intended to be) for your own sense of real world joy and getting that joy from movies. That said, it's also crucial to keep in mind that all of these movies have different sets of variables to look at on the data side. Indiana Jones is a five-day opener on a holiday that has a repeated history of being... well, weird, for lack of a better word. Sometimes it helps certain movies more than it helps others. Mission: Impossible is cornering a similar audience with a non-traditional weekend opening, and it already faces Oppenheimer entering the pre-sale phase before it. Between those three movies, tracking is not going to be apples-to-apples with much else because they cater to older audiences and they're essentially being asked to pre-buy tickets for several movies at the same time. In this economy? That's a big ask, and it makes word of mouth even more important. That's going to affect long-term trends and short-term trends both when we're talking about pre-sales. As with all forms of predicting, I would not take any kind of tracking as gospel until closer to release, and even then, context has to be applied whether that's looking at growth rates, decline rates, sales beyond just preview shows, market variance, etc. But beyond all of that, I go back to just letting the data be the data and separate it from everything else. It's easy to get sucked into the doom (or hype) rollercoasters that often happen in this thread and this entire forum. Sometimes they're predictively accurate, but sometimes they're not. That's always happened and will always happen. Ultimately, though, it's not important and it's constantly changing like a moving target. Just go and enjoy the movies on your own terms.

6.25 NHF 5.70 AtSV Official Fri estimates

My understanding is it would include all grosses through Sunday (so the five-day opening plus all previews), but I don't have NRG which is where those trades are probably getting it from. That generally lines up with our long range forecast from last week, though. I think $100M+ through Sunday is very doable at the moment.

Flash: 24.5 official Fri w/ previews

Blackening: $2.55m Fri official (with previews)

TF: ROTB: 5.25 official est.

Asteroid City Friday: $350K (6 locs)

Honestly, I'm afraid to ask. I'm Schrödinger's Cat-ing it for the moment.

And here I thought the biggest bomb of the year wasn't supposed to go off until July 21. 👀

Elemental official $2.4M

$9.7M official Flash previews

We can point to a number of parallel movies that have some sort of relevance. I was simply replying to the three movies @Into the Legion-Verse called out in his prior post, which all happened to be DC.

They're only compared in the sense that they were very unusual factors in play that weren't present in any kind of normal forecasting model for other or similar films. For very different reasons, yes, but people were highly inclined *not* to rush out and see those movies in a theater, and those were outside the typical spectrum of reasons for why movies misfire at the box office.

You may be right. I feel like I underestimated the Miller factor, personally. But that may be one of those intangible, once-in-a-thousand-tentpoles type of situation. DC and comic book movies in general being in regression from their peak doesn't help either.