Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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6 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:
$640M seems to be the absolute floor with Maverick seeming to be the ceiling.
I tried to forecast the next 6 weeks for Avatar's daily/weekend numbers + how much it can add after that. I have $654m as the absolute minimum at this point (without taking into account Valentine's Day and predicting over 50% drop during Ant-Man premiere weekend) and sub $670m as a good possibility. +$700m also is in play, but it requires really great legs in March, which might be hard to achieve (a lot of new releases - SVI, JW3, CIII, 65, and A2 will be on D+ this month). Maverick's $719m might be too high, even for Jim's film.
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After its 4th weekend I believe $653m domestic are absolutely the worst case scenario for A2, and the best is $836m. TG:M is definitely a good target right now, with possibility to beat even NWH as #3 of all time.
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19 hours ago, upriser7 said:
what's the ATP in Poland for Avatar2 ?
Idk unfortunately.
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15 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Avatar beating all-time 4th weekend record in Romania, New Zealand, Poland, UAE, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Czech republic, Hungray
4th weekend here was insane! +31.4% compared to the last weekend (or better! it's still estimated). A2 has a shot to become the new biggest overseas hit in Poland after 1989 (for now Avatar is #1, Titanic is 2nd).
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3 hours ago, Danhjpn said:
It still would need some luck to hit $2.3B imo
For now global "legs" (current total / ow ww) of the film are x3.87. If it continues to drop like this till the end of its run, A2 should add another $687.3m ww = $2.396B worldwide final. Why it need "some luck"? It's almost locked that this film will gross more than $2.3b and every week the situation changes in the better way.
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After this weekend I think even $2.5B worldwide is possible. It needs +$700m and +1.7B OS to do so. It is at around $517m domestic after its 4th weekend(+$45m); TFA added almost $124m dom after its 4th weekend, NWH added $136.4m, A2 is doing better than both of them and has empty calendar till Feb 17th + some time till it gets Disney+ release (probably March). I believe it can add another +$180m to touch $700m mark (and $650m is the bare minimum at this point). Overseas looks even better, even if China's run will be over soon, the rest of the world is full on hype-train right now, $1.6B seems locked, even $1.73B is possible. The worst case scenario for now is $2.25B worldwide Imho and the best is $2.45-2.5B. Lets see how it goes in the next 5 weeks.
First Avatar's (-Russia and Ukraine) original run was $2.62B ww. The sequel would finish not far behind it (with covid situation in China and stronger dollar than it was in 2009/2010).
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At least $177.6m ww this weekend. With x3 multiplayer from now on it will finish with $2.24b worldwide. $2.3b is in sight Imho.
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The Force Awakens added $124m dom after its 4th weekend. If A2 beat it (and I think it will, at least $43m this weekend) I think $640m domestic is the floor with some chances to touch $700m.
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3 hours ago, Andreas said:
I agree that it is possible, perhaps even likely, but to say that it is "100% locked" is false. In order to beat IW and TFA, the movie still has to get its grip on almost $600M. That is not an easy task for any movie during and after its fourth week since the release.
Nope. It IS LOCKED. 100% sure. A:IW is at $2.048b, TFA is at $2.0695b. Avatar will be at around $505-510m domestic after this weekend. Even with huge domestic drops after its 4th weekend (which won't be the case, there's no competition at all for the next 5 weeks) this movie is heading for at least $570m domestic + easily over $1.5b os = at least $2.07b in very, very worst case scenario. With good legs (again, there's no competition till Feb 17th) it should go well over $2.2b.
$2 billions, Infinity War and The Force Awakens -->
I can understand some doubts about TFA, but $2 billies and IW - nope, A2 just can't stop under that marks now.
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12 hours ago, Andreas said:
@IronJimbo if A:TWOW will in the end outgross A:IW worldwide (not yet saying that it will, I still have some doubts on $2B and beyond), know that imo it's completely deserved.
If? This is 100% locked. After this weekend A2 will be at around $1.7b, beating TFA ww is a done deal.
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On 12/31/2022 at 2:25 PM, Moses said:
There is no doubt that Avatar 2 is having a great run
I think the main problem is having huge huge expectations before release.
I remember after AEG success many people putting expectations over 3 billions.
I've putted my expectations over 3 billions a long time before AEG (probably somewhere in 2017)
Avatar is at $956.9m overseas. Next weekend should be also great (in many markets Friday is Holiday = longer weekend). $125m OS 4th weekend possible, with Mon-Thu this movie can be at over $1.17b (5th of all time) by the next Sunday. $1.55b OS is in play.
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14 hours ago, YM! said:
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m
No f**king way. M:I films always has geat legs and $245m with today's ATP would be the worst admission in the history of this franchise.
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BP:WF will be realised on Disney+ in two weeks from now probably. It would be the end of "good late legs" for it.
1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:ah, very cool. 700m soon
$700m looks really hard for now. But if the drops this weekend and the next one will push the film over $500m on Sunday Jan 8th, I think with as stron late legs in the next 3 months as Spider-Man: No Way Home had, Avatar might go as high as $640m dom. I'm hoping for $655m
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1 hour ago, Bruce said:
DOM Thurs:19.75m
OS Thurs:47m
Overall:66.75m
WW total:1167m
Incredible hold
some prediction:
DOM Third weekend:58m
OS Third weekend:170m
WW Third weekend:228m
WW after 3rd weekend:1395m+
potential to do 1400mcomps with NWH after third weekend:1367m+
So is already locked for 2BTarget is besting Titanic
I think A2 should be over TLK and JW (+$1.67b ww) on Sunday Jan 8th.
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5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Jurassic world is a pretty reasonably fun flick imho, not the greatest film but decent enough watch. The two sequels on the other hand...yeah...
Decent enough only if you turn off your brain and don't look for good director work with building suspence or any intensity in "scary scenes".
5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:19.75
5.7Nice.
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13 hours ago, Andreas said:
Before its release, I had predicted $600M DOM, $400M China, $1B OS-China, for a total of $2B WW.
Even though I've overestimated China and underestimated OS-China, I think that ATWOW's WW total will be almost or around that mark.
Percentage-wise, I'd say the movie is:
- 100% locked to surpass The Lion King
- 100% locked to surpass Jurassic World
- 99% likely to surpass Spider-Man: No Way Home
- 75% likely to surpass Avengers: Infinity War
- 70% likely to surpass Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- 50% likely to surpass Titanic
Fixed. You're welcome.
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3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:
I agree with the first part, but not with $45-50m 4th weekend. If it were to stay flat this weekend, 64m > 45m is a 29% drop post-holiday. Which is technically doable, but require staying at least FLAT this weekend.
However, if it drops 15% or so this weekend to $54.4m then it would take a 17% drop to get to $45m, which seems highly unlikely after a holiday.
I genuinely believe A2 can drop less than 10% this weekend and less than 20% on the next weekend. Top Gun: Maverick has incredibly small drops even a week after the long/holiday weekends, so Avatar can.
48 minutes ago, Bruce said:My personal view of other JC movie:
Titanic(9/10)
Avatar(8/10)
T2(9.5/10)[maybe a bit high but is my childhood,I have the nostalgia)
Aliens(7/10)
True Line(8/10)
T2, The Terminator, Titanic, Aliens - all 10/10 (Terminators are my fav of all time)
Avatar, The Abyss - 9/10
True Lies, The Way of Water - 8/10
Pirania II - I don't remember this sh**
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25 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
It took 25 years from the first 1bil movie, to today where we have 52 bil movies.
We currently have 5 2bil movies since 2009. I bet its going to take waaay longer than 25 years to get to 50 2bil movies.
The Way of Water is the 51st film that has crossed $1 billion worldwide.
China and couple other markets growth + 3D and IMAXes (add a lot to the tickets prices). There's nothing new to increase box office nowadays, and in face of streaming / covid, I think many b.o. records and many $2b as well as $1b will slow down compared to the last 13 years. Without China not even MCU films will be able to attack $2b ww mark.
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But MEGAN is looking for max. $30-35m. If it was Avatar's 5th or 6th weekend - sure. But on the fourth Avatar weekend can still go for $45-50m. After that, the next big thing (more than $15m OW) is Ant-Man on Feb 17th (Avatar's 10th weekend). I don't think even Titanic's re-release on PLFs screens a week earlier will top A2.
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I checked out the release schedule for the next two months. I wouldn't be surprised if Avatar 2 win 9 weekends in a row as the first film to do so in XXI century. I think the record of the last 23 years is the first Avatar - 7 weekends as the #1 on the box office chart.
Ofc, I know it wouldn't have happen if not covid (TG:M also wouldn't have such amazing legs if it was released during full-packed summer 2020).
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After the Phase Four films and with the current Avengers members (No Iron Man, not the original Captain America, no Black Widow) I don't see next Avengers films OW over Infinity War's $257.7m. MCU has to do something great in the next two years to appeal audience as they did in 2017-2019.
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One more prediction for 2023 - there are only two movies that have owned the opening weekend record for over 4 years: Sam Raimi's Spider-Man (4 years, 2 months and 4 days - broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in July 2006) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (4 years, 5 months and 24 days - broken by the 1st Harry Potter film in November 2001). Avengers: Endgame will become the longest-reigning opening weekend champion of all time after October 22, 2023. There's no chance anything will surpass its $357.1m, not in a few years (maybe in this decade).
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Okay, alright. Here is my 2023 forecast:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
domestic: $450 million / overseas: $690 million / worldwide: $1.14 billion2. The Little Mermaid (2023)
domestic: $350 million / overseas: $650 million / worldwide: $1 billion3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
domestic: $290 million / overseas: $670 million / worldwide: $960 million4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1
domestic: $295 million / overseas: $605 million / worldwide: $900 million5. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
domestic: $405 million / overseas: $425 million / worldwide: $830 million6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
domestic: $265 million / overseas: $410 million / worldwide: $675 million7. The Marvels
domestic: $270 million / overseas: $400 million / worldwide: $670 million8. Dune: Part Two
domestic: $225 million / overseas: $440 million / worldwide: $665 million9. Fast X
domestic: $160 million / overseas: $500 million / worldwide: $660 million10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
domestic: $250 million / overseas: $305 million / worldwide: $555 millionAt 11th I've got Oppenheimer with similiar numbers to Dunkirk in 2017. I've no idea how to predict Mario Bros. or Elementals because these are not good times for an animated films. My 1st is Indy, I wrote about him a few words some time ago:
My 2nd is Mermaid which I believe have a potential to score big (maybe $1b ww? maybe $350-400m dom?), maybe as big as live-action The Jungle Book and Aladdin. The 3rd I believe will be Aquaman with some drops compared to the first one (but still big thanks to his new December release date). The 4th will be the new M:I (fingers crossed!), the 5th GotG3 (after this year I don't think it will be bigger domestic than Doctor Strange 2 and much bigger than Thor: Love and Thunder OS), at 6th I have the new Ant-Man (some increases from Ant-Man and the Wasp), 7th The Marvels (domestic drop similiar to the first film as Wakanda Forever has to the first Black Panther, overseas - a little bit more than Wakanda because the first Captain Marvel film was bigger OS than the first BP) later I got Dune 2 which should benefit after all the Oscars for the first film and no HBO Max release at the day 1 (probably after +60 days in this case), 9th will be F10 with another drop in this too-long franchise, and the last one on my list is the new Spider-Man from Sony (it might've been even bigger if not full-packed summer). I don't see any big surprises next year (like TGM this year or NWH in 2021) and I don't think there'll be any big hit from China in 2023 (+$600m). Barbie, John Wick 4, Shazam !!, TF6 and Blue Beetle - all of'em I see in $400m ww range.
And what about The Flash You may ask? Until Warner drop some trailer. . .
It might be a huge hit next summer or be a spectacular bomb. I don't know yet.
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On 12/29/2021 at 9:41 AM, Juby said:
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Part One
worldwide: $600 mln / domestic: $270 mln9. Top Gun: Maverick
worldwide: $620 mln / domestic: $210 mln8. "Mission: Impossible 7"
worldwide: $690 mln / domestic: $190 mln7. The Batman
worldwide: $780 mln / domestic: $310 mln6. Lightyear
worldwide: $850 mln / domestic: $325 mln5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
worldwide: $940 mln / domestic: $450 mln4. Thor: Love and Thunder
worldwide: $1.05b / domestic: $410 mln3. Jurassic World: Dominion
worldwide: $1.15b / domestic: $335 mln2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
worldwide: $1.25b / domestic: $430 mln1. "Avatar 2"
worldwide: $1.85-3.7b / domestic: $500 mln-1.1b+ Probably 1-2 china films with $600-900 mln (99% gross from China).
I got The Batman WW right and I think I'll be close with BP:WF domestic
I can understand some doubts about TFA, but $2 billies and IW - nope, A2 just can't stop under that marks now.
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
A2 10th weekend was $6.45m (-10.6%) / $7.9m 4-day weekend (estimated). Gran Torino's 10th weekend (including limited release) was $6.49m (-9.3%) / $7.44m 4-day wknd. After President's Day, Eastwood's film added $18.5 million to its domestic gross. With the similiar pattern The Way of Water is looking to finish around $677.5m domestic (everything depends on Disney+ release of the film). It still has a shot to beat Infinity War domestically ($678.8m), but $700m seems impossible at this point. Even NWH with much better late-legs added only $32m after President's Day Weekend in 2022, A2 won't repeat that, not with this year's competition in March.