[THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6]

1991 - Home Alone becomes the 12th film ever with +$200 million domestic gross.

2002 - Spider-Man becomes the 12th film ever with +$300 million domestic gross.

2011 - The Lion King (1994) becomes the 12th film ever with +$400 million domestic gross.

2022 - Top Gun: Maverick will cross $600 million domestic as the 12th film ever

 

Somehow we skipped "$500 million decade". $600m is the new $400m now 

 

[THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6]

Top Gun: Maverick 7th weekend - $15.5m

Aladdin (2019) 7th weekend - $7.52m

 

Aladdin was at $320.7m at this point and ended with $355.6m. With similliar legs TGM should finish with around $662-670 million domestic. With weaker competition during this summer, I believe TGM will fly even higher than that.

 

[2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion]

42 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Fast X - 140m OW / 300m DOM / 1.2b WW

 

 

Here's why:

 

[4th of July Weekend | Tiktok propels Minions 2 to 108.5 3-Day OW | TGM 25.5, Elvis 19, JWD 15.6, Black Phone 12.3 | Independence Day Weekend Sale!]

10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$8.9m for TG2

$7m for Elvis

 

Is it Sunday? Or early Monday?

[4th of July Weekend | Tiktok propels Minions 2 to 108.5 3-Day OW | TGM 25.5, Elvis 19, JWD 15.6, Black Phone 12.3 | Independence Day Weekend Sale!]

Holy shit! Can TGM beat Titanic's 6th weekend??! That would be second time ever (only Avatar did that before).

 

 

[2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion]

14 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

10. Creed 3 - $100M

 

Not in 2022 anymore.

 

11 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

I really don’t get your Black Panther: Wakanda Forever prediction. We have never seen a MCU film drop that low from its predecessor. In fact, the only MCU film to drop from its prequel film was Avengers: Age of Ultron

 

Iron Man 2 also droped from the first one. This is also the first time sequel doesn't have the main star of the first film. I also think this prediction is deffinetly too low, but yeah, BP2 will drop much, maybe more than AoU.

 

 

[Weekly Thread 6/27-6/20]

16 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

TFA or any animated movie ?

 What about them?

[Top Gun: Maverick | Oscar-wining Billionaire | $1.48bn without China!]

$1.3bn worldwide is very achievable at this point.

[Weekly Thread 6/27-6/20]

If $4.75m for TGM is true, than I see $4.15m on Wednesday, $3.75m Thursday, $24.5m 6th weekend ($6.4m + $9.3m + $8.8m / -17.2% lw), $7.5m July 4th = +$570m next Monday, and about $595-599m on July 10th. $650-670 million domestic final is the target now.

 

 

[Weekly Thread 6/27-6/20]

On Sunday TGM broke record for the "best legs" for a $100-million opener. Currently it's at x4.15. It will be over x5 when it's all done. For movies with +$50m OW (Friday releases) only two films have over x5.00 legs - Avatar (x9.74) and Jumanji: The Next Level (x5.40). Well, there's also Jurassic Park, but it was +$50m with Thursday previews.

 

[Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1]

Dominion will be around 9.2% behind FK at this point. Seems $375-380m domestic total.

 

Doctor Strange 2 should finish with $413-414 million. That would be the worst multiplayer in MCU history (44.9% of its domestic gross would be OW).

[Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1]

After its opening weekend Jurashit World was ahead of Top Gun: Maverick by $82.1m ($208.8m to $126.7m). After 5th weekend it's around $70 million ahead. I'm not sure if TGM can close this gap, even though JW was after 4th of July weekend and had shorter, more wide-release-packed summer in 2015.

[Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1]

4 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Woudnt it be funny if we would get a Black Panther-situation where the movie stands at 699,9M for like 2 months before crossing 700M?

 

Crossing only thanks to some "magic Disney numbers" from its last 7 days. Black Panther's $700 million is a bs.

 

But okay, let's say Black Panther added $95m after its 5th weekend (and it was highly inflated number due to Infinity War release and some double-features). No Way Home added $106.8m (3rd best from all time Top10 only behind Avatar and Titanic) and Gran Torino (its 5th weekend was 1st in wide release) added $107.5m. TGM is doing even better than all of them, so at least $107.5m + $521.7m (current Mav. dom) = $629.2m.

 

[Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have TGM at 630-640 at the moment. +10-20M with Labor Day expansion.

 

Good call @Legion and Thunder of A+ & 4000+ Top 10.

I have TGM final at $631-636m right now. With some expansion or great late legs it might go higher, closer to $650m.

 

I also don't see TGM at $600m on July 10th yet, bit under $590m imho.

 

Being in all time Top10 (it will finish even in Top9) after $126.7m opening weekend is just insane. Almost all members of this club were +$200 million openers. After Maverick's OW I thought it can finish its domestic run at 520m max.

[Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1]

26 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

With the way Top Gun: Maverick is doing at the WW box office, will it have a chance at outgrossing Transformers 3’s $1.123B to be the second highest grossing Paramount film worldwide only behind Titanic?

 

Titanic isn't Paramount film outsode U.S. So the biggest Paramount film worldwide is Tf3.

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

1 hour ago, seduh7 said:

Avatar open at $77 and had an almost 10x multiplayer. 

Seriously?! Wow, I've never heard of this film and its box office success.

 

We were talking about non-December releases. Films released before/during Christmas holidays often have great legs (Night at the Museum 1 and 3, both Jumanji with Dwayne, The Greatest Showman, Ghost Protocol).

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

18 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Gravity was REALLY close with 4.91x off $55m ow.

 

Thanks a lot!! So there was one film with nearly 5x and over $50m opening. I think TGM will beat this result with slighly over 5x multiplayer as the best one is 21st century and the best since 1999. AMAZING!!

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

13 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Last time 5x happened to a Friday summer blobkbuster that made it to the top 10 was Jurassic Park in 1993 I think (ironically the first film to open over $50m, though finding Nemo was close with 4.84x) counting mid-week openings, I think TPM was the last to do over 5x

 

The 6th Sense was after TPM and JP (summer blockbuster that made it to Top10 of 1999 with Friday release date).

 

 

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

16 minutes ago, cruelintentionsisgoated said:

Also Inside Out, it opened to 90m and legged out to 360m (about x4) in summer 2015

 

First of all, don't quote the entire post right above yours. It doesn't make any sens.

 

Second of all, I was asking about +5.00 multiplayers, not x4.

 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

@charlie Jatinder

What's your current prediction (OW) for Thor based on advance ticket sale?

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

Maverick will easily beat record for best legs of +$100 million opener (Shrek 2 x4.08, or Wonder Woman x4.00) and can go even as high as x5.00 multiplayer! Does anyone know when the last time such thing happen for non-christmas wide release? I think there's no such film in XXI century. Inception with x4.66 is the best I can find.

 

Edit:

The Hangover in 2009 wass the last time i guess. Or Bridesmaids in 2011, but it was released in less than 3000 theaters. For a film with +$50 million OW that's unheard of, I think.

 

 

[Top Gun Maverick | May 27, 2022 | Catch it in theaters...again on December 2nd! | Comes to Paramount+ on December 22!]

18 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Next milestones for TGM

 

$600.8m to beat Titanic DOM orginal run

 

$659.4m to beat Titanic DOM with all its rereleases to become top Paramount film

 

1st is happening for sure, 2nd is the dream.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/titanic-rerelease-date-remastered-version-james-cameron-1235050212/

 

Titanic will be over $660 million next March.

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

Titanic won't give up. Maverick will have to beat him by a larger margin, because the ship will be over $660 million domestic next year. :)

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/titanic-rerelease-date-remastered-version-james-cameron-1235050212/

[Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Am bit bearish on BP2, thinking somewhere around 500M at the moment. Will be happy to take 700 obviously.

 

TGM 625M may happen but 658 653 seems a bit too high.

 

TGM $636m for now, but if it keeps surprise us, I think $660 million is possible.

 

BP2 - no chance for +$600 million.

[2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion]

1) This isn't the last chapter. It's the first half of the "one last ride". F&F11 will be in 2025 probably.

2) Being 5th last year means nothing. This year F9 wouldn't be in Top10.