Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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I kept saying TGM won't hit $700m and will be at $660m on Labor Day Weekend.
5 weeks later Top Gun is heading for $703-711 million domestic. Undescribable!!!! I still can't believe in its legs, just unbelievable. Now I wouldn't be surprise if this would win the year domestic, not Avatar sequel.
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Easily the worst list in BOT forum history. Film at 250-101 are far better than those in the Top100. Awful drops for all my favorites. Don't even care for the rest of this list. I'm out.
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5 hours ago, The Panda said:
Number 137
Batman Begins (2005, Christopher Nolan)
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On 8/2/2022 at 10:10 PM, The Panda said:
Some more of the 'misses' (although they did make the top 250!)
Number 180
RoboCop (1987, Paul Verhoeven)
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4 hours ago, efialtes76 said:
Birds of Prey was more of a dissapointment than a flop.
And WW84?
Come on!it was released at the worst time of the pandemic!
PoB was a flop. And WW84 - okay, covid killed it, but look at the reviews and audience scores - it was still huge dissapointment.
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On 7/21/2022 at 12:34 AM, dudalb said:
You can laugh, but don't think that any big name in a DC movies is not on the phone with his agent demanding a bigger paycheck after what Phoenix got for Joker 2.
Probably they gave him some additional $$$ due to all delays. He got this part in 2007-2008!
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On 6/12/2022 at 9:24 PM, Lothar said:
This one will do fine at BO and if it doesn't then I have no faith in DC/Warner Bros.
Wonder Woman did great
The Batman Did great
Aquaman did great
Now this one. I think it's safe to say they are on right path now.
Wait, what?
2017
Justice League - flop
2018
Aquaman - hit
2019
Shazam! - decent b.o. (green because it was enough for sequel)
Joker - hit
2020
Birds of Prey: Harley Quinn - flop
Wonder Woman 1984 - flop
2021
Snyder Cut - dissapointing amout of views
The Suicide Squad - flop
2022
The Batman - hit
I don't see any goal here, any plan, any clear direction with their DC films, and so far Warner once is luckily, the other time is not. I have no idea if Black Adam will join their flop club or hit club.
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I send my list to You in private message. I skipped Polish films because I'm aware that no one but me would vote for them.
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44 minutes ago, baumer said:
You can't deny that ledgers death certainly helped get people into the theater
I can, and I am. For 14 years. Heath Ledger wasn't a superstar in 2008, the Joker character was. And hype for TDK was already huge after IMAX prologue and the 1st trailer one month before his death. Even if this tragedy never happen, film could have done the very same numbers it did. Shame we don't have any multiverse device to check that out, but for me chances that TDK would have gross 158.4/533.3 even if Heath was alive are the same as when he died. Luckily nothing similiar happen with Jurassic World in 2015 and now with TGM, so people can't deny that some films once in a while just massively break out (for many reasons).
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19 minutes ago, baumer said:
At this point Top Gun has exceeded even the most ridiculously outlandish expectation somebody might have had pre-release.
Thanks God no one envolved in this film died before its release. 14 years ago TDK exceeded every expectation + all b.o. predictions same way and some people still claims it was all due to Heath's death (not his electrifying performance and bc it was so great movie) and without it TDK had no chance of breaking OW record and crossing $500m dom. No chance... Such things never happen... Never.
24 minutes ago, baumer said:I don't think anybody's hating on the film to say that it might only reach 650 million LOL
I believe it will reach $670m.
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I'm just realist.
Top Gun: Maverick 8-9/10 and easily the best movie of the year (so far) for me.
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TGM is at $618m domestic after $12m weekend. To hit $700m it's like $12-million opener finish at $94 million its b.o. run (x7.83 multiplayer).
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1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:
Probably had the same 0.9% chance of hitting 600m and here we are. Could you remind me how much Titanic did on re-release? That would rip your impossible argument to shreds. If Paramount is not going to anything with the gold ticket that they probably get once every decade than you might be right. That will be on them. There is so much they can do. Re-release with extra footage, chrome version, director's cut, 3D release if they wanted to. 700m is happening. Maybe not this year but at some point. Book it.
Every day and every week the situation becomes more clarified. $600m was impossible only before Top Gun's 2nd weekend. Now, we know more.
Titanic re-release was huge because: a) it was re-release of the 2nd highest grossing film of all time; b) it was 100th anniversary of the sinking; c) and 15th anniversary of the film release; d) first time in 3D / IMAX; e) the film wasn't avialable in HD at all (latest release was on DVD). That is not good example, TGM might have only one of these factors.
Avatar re-release in August 2010 add $10.7m domestically. And it was re-release of the highest grossing film of all time in Special Edition cut with massive marketing. That would be a good target for TGM, maybe even out of reach.
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35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Thor 8.1
M2 5.25
TGM 1.95
= $24.05 million 7th week for TGM (-44.6% LW). With average 28.7% drops next few weeks, it should add: $17.14m next week + $12.22m + $8.7m + $6.2m + $4.42m +$3.15m + $2.25m = $660 million on Thursday Septemeber 1st. Than, even with big expansion and empty month it should add no more than $12.5m. So, $672.5 million final it is.
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35 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:
I'd say 90% chance TGM is hitting 700m. There is zero competition this summer from now on, gonna stay in theatres for a while. It really need to reach 675-680m by the end of September and the re-release will push it over 700m. If it's not getting award buzz and Paramount is not re-rerelasing it, then yes that 10% negativity prevails. I just can't see Paramount missing the boat. For the record beating Titanic and IW is big enough of a cake anyway, 700m would be just the icing.
I'd say 0.9% chance TGM is hitting $700m. There's no word about any re-release, re-issue, or even expansion for Labor Day weekend so far. Probability of hitting $700m based on current numbers and film's condition so far is smaller than finishing under Titanic's $659.4m.
Even hitting $675-680m by the end of September (it won't happen Imho) will means the re-release will have to gross more than $20 million... for a 2022 film... available on Blu-ray/ UHD/ DVD/ streaming, etc. That's just impossible. Even Endgame (+$800m monster hit) due to #BringBackEvent added like $14-16 million to its potential final gross, and it was still fresh film, without home releases and before D+. Maybe some Extended Edition in 10 years from now can pull of +$20 million from theaters, not the very same film released again this, or the next year.
With average 33% weekly drops from now on, TGM will be at around $651 million before LD weekend. Without any expansion, it might finish under Jurassic World ($653.4m).
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$655-675m domestic + $695-715m overseas. $1.35bn looks safe at this point, but I won't bet any money on $1.4bn.
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5 minutes ago, superduperm said:
Could you explain what you mean by the last list?
Avatar was definitely in the top 10 for more than 11 weekends. Plenty of other movies were also in the top 10 for more than six weekends. Am I missing something?
Probably the list shows how many times these films are in Top10 of all time for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th... and 12th weekends of all time. Titanic is not in the first three, but start counting by its fourth weekend (currently 12th, but without American Sniper and The Revenant that would be 10th).
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34 minutes ago, Doffy said:
Totally depends on next weeknd drops if it manage to stay below 20 per drop 700 m is achievable.
TGM achieved less than 20% drops only twice, both of them were holiday weekends. But even if it'll drop only 19% this weekend, that still won't get the film to $700m domestic. It would have been at $618.5m after its 8th weekend - still $81.5m to go! TGM would have to pull at least x7.5 multiplayer to do so, that's just impossible (currently it's on track for x5.3 multi).
34 minutes ago, Doffy said:It still playing in 3500 theatres and won't available on digital until aug 23.
3292 theaters starting today and probably under 3000 next weekend, and so on... I know vod will be at the end of August, but still, that won't make the film to get to $670m before that.
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54 minutes ago, Doffy said:
670 before LD Weeknd is possible.
Can You explain me how? Are You assuming TGM will start having even better legs than so far without any holiday weekend and keep loosing theaters? I don't see it, $650-660m.
41 minutes ago, Doffy said:Bp was 665 before falling below 1m. If tgm can manage to stay above 1m until it pass 640 with possible imax expansion and LD boost 700 is feasible looks impossible but paramount should do everything to boost this to 700m mark they won't get this chance again.
Paramount shouldn't and don't have to do anything right now. Anything over $300 million domestic for TGM would have been a huge win for the studio already, now their film will reach $650m domestic as the 9th movie of all time(!), so they don't have to prove anything to anyone. Maybe Paramount would try it if it was $1 million to add as it was with Black Panther struggling to reach $700m for 2 months, but no with $30-40 million gap.
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9 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:
Can't see TGM missing 700m. It's having the best summer legs ever and not far behind Avatar in dailies. Now Avatar obviously going to gain over the weekends, but not going to open up a 60m gap from now on, especially with the LD boost coming.
Biggest 7th domestic Wednesday:
1 Feb 3, 2010 Avatar $2,647,797 3,074 $861 $603,789,348 2 Dec 29, 2004 The Polar Express $2,243,365 2,618 $857 $147,165,621 3 Dec 26, 2012 Lincoln $2,147,024 1,966 $1,092 $122,416,972 4 Jan 1, 2003 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $2,129,000 2,505 $850 $245,996,000 5 Jul 4, 2001 Shrek $2,128,586 2,704 $787 $233,298,753 6 Jul 13, 2022 Top Gun: Maverick $2,078,744 3,513 $592 $604,000,127
Let's take a look at TGM run from different point of view.
Average week drop for TGM will be around 28.7% after this Thursday (this includes inflated Memmorial Day, Father's Day and 4th of July weekends + lack of any competition for first two weeks). After the last week (it will be over $24 million after ~$2m Thursday), with this pace, TGM will add around $54.2m till September 1st. So it might be at $660.2 million before Labor Day weekend (if it keep this pace ofc, which will be extremely hard to achieve). Do You seriously believe it will add another $40 million after that? This movie will be in cinemas 14 weeks by then. Avatar after its 14 week in release added $11.4 million. Jurassic World added around $12.3 million after massive expansion in the last 2 weeks of the summer (+997 theaters) and release date in mid June (not in May as TGM was).
I know this year's September and October are basically empty, and I know TGM is the most unpredictable b.o. run of the year, and that's the only reasons why I don't call beating Infinity War ($678.8m) a dead case. But for now, $672.5 million for Maverick is the absolute maximum I see.
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42 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
What the worst starwars movie for you?
Mine is AOTC but this came pretty close to toping it but the laughs I had at the stupidity gave it the edge.
Ranking
ESB
Rouge one
Revenge of the sith
Force awakens
Return of the jedi
A new hope.
Solo
TLJ
Phantom menace
TROS
AOTC
1. Star Wars, TESB, RotJ, RotS, Rogue One = all at 1st, love'em
2. Attack of the Clones
3. The Phantom Menace
---------------------------------------------
4. Solo
5. The Force Awakens
6. The Last Jedi
7&8. Skywalker / Obi-Wan Series = shit
For me Rogue One is the only SW thing from Disney that matters. The rest is #notmycanon
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11 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:
I'm so happy for TGM but I doubt it will hit $670 million. I'm thinking more between $640 and $650 million.
TGM legs for now are x4.71 and it had $597.4m after last weekend. If it keep this pace (after $15.5m 7th weekend) till the end of its run, it will finish with exactly $670.4m. The rest of July and August are basiclly empty, there's no competition for TGM and no word about streaming/Blu-ray release date. $670m is easily achievable, I think it Infinity War is still the goal here.
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Maybe +10 $800m-grossers... Next year it might be 5 of them (Avatar + Avatar 2 might join the club).
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Guess who's back?!
My updated counter-prediction:
Top Gun: Maverick $670m (+$45m)
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $412m (-$3m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $375m (-$5m)
The Batman $369.3mThor: Love and Thunder $360m (-$90m)
Minions: The Rise of Gru $330m (+$120m)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9mNo other +$190m grosser this year.
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2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by Juby
My final prediction for Top10-2022:
Top Gun: Maverick $717m (+$47m)
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $411.3m (-$0.7m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $376m (+$1m)
Minions: The Rise of Gru $370m (+$40m)
The Batman $369.3m
Thor: Love and Thunder $343.3m (-$16.7m)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9m
Elvis $151m