Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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I wonder where is the-numbers updated tracking for 2022? What Bruce Nash's "model" has to say about future box office surprises?
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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:
Daaaamn Juby, $620m in the first 2 weeks? Some others in here are putting lower than that for the whole run.
Avatar has the same release date as Rogue One had 6 years ago. I think it would open even 40-50% higher than R1 and it will have better drops through first 2-3 weeks (and later). Final? I think $1.1bn for now.
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On 6/19/2022 at 2:27 PM, jedijake said:
That said, TG2 will be flirting with $575-$600 million.
After this weekend ($45 million!!) it is more like $605-640 million.
My updated prediction for 2022 (+$200 million domestic):
Top Gun: Maverick $625m (+$335m)
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) (+$120m)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Thor: Love and Thunder $450m (+$40m)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $415m (+$10m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $380m (+$40m)
The Batman $369.3m
Lightyear $320m
Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m
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Okay, if $45 million for Maverick is possible (WHAT?!) I prepare a new showdown:
The biggest summer movies after the 4th weekend, how much they added after that and how much they added after the 3rd weekend if it was lower than Maverick 4th wknd.
Wonder Woman - $318.1m after 24 days +$94.4m [rest] (or +$137.5m after 17 days, cause TGM 4th will be bigger than WW's 3rd wknd)
The Dark Knight - $441.3m +$91.7m (or +$139.6m)
Incredibles 2 - $503.8m + $104.8m (+$168m)
The Avengers - $513.4m after 24 days + $110m [rest]
Jurassic World - $556.5m + $95.7m [rest]'Top Gun 2' is doing better than any of these great hits, so I guess adding at least $140 million after this weekend is probable. Black Panther was at $561.7 million after its 4th weekend ($40.8m) and added later another $138.4 million to its domestic gross. Even without Infinity War boost help, Maverick can top that due to summer weekdays and smaller competition.
So yes, if +$40 million 4th weekend happens, than $600 million domestic for Maverick is locked, and even $640 million will be possible at this point Imho.
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9 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:
Then what’s your final prediction for this? Let’s not lose hope just yet. It’s not that it’s disappointed.
For Maverick? I think $570-580 million final domestic is the target right now. That would be insane run, I don't think not crossing $600m dom would be any dissapointment at all.
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6 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
This set of weekdays seems oddly weak, especially for TGM. Is it?
No. People just need to realize that the 2nd weekend and the weekdays after that were inflated because people wanted to see Maverick in PLF cinemas before JWD take them (and there was no competition at all). Now, without them, with smaller number of theaters and competition getting stronger and stronger every week, TGM will have to face reality of slighty harsher drops.
TDK isn't the best example, but you can compare TGM to WW or JW, or the first Avengers. $600m will be very difficult to achieve.
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1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Puss in boots - 150m+
Isn't it this year?
My first raw forecast for 2023:
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 - $450m
Indiana Jones 5 - $375m ($300-400m range)
The Marvels - $300m
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $290m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $270m
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $250m
The Flash - $250m
Dune: Part Two - $215m
John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200m
Wonka - $180m
Oppenheimer - $175m
Fast X = $165m
Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m
Blue Beetle = $150m
I know there'll be also TLM, Mario film, Sony-verse movies, and some Disney and Pixar animations, but I don't have anything for them yet. I'll update my list at the end of December.
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The Dark Knight after 17 days in release = $393.75m / later added $139.6m
The Avengers after 17 days in release = $457.7m / later added $165.7m
Jurassic World after 17 days in release = $500.4m / later added $151.9m
Incredibles 2 after 17 days in release = $440.6m / later added $168m
Top Gun: Maverick after 17 days in release ~ $393.3m (at least according to Deadline, I believe it will be closer to $396m) and should add more than any of four above (Father's Day weekend + 4th of July weekend + not as much wide releases as it was pre-pandemic + almost empty August/September). Beating TDK seems locked at this point. $550m not yet (1st, 2nd and 3rd weekends of TGM are smaller than first three JW weekends, so from now on it might add less than $152m). $600m is still in the game, but it won't be as easy as many thought it would be few days ago. I'm predicting $575-580m at the moment, the worst case scenario $545m.
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Top Gun is still doing AMAZING!! This drop was expected, rememeber that people try to see it in PLF, and that was the reason why TGM hold up so well so far, but now he must face competition and lose of theaters like any other film. -40% on its 3rd weekend after so massive 2nd weekend is still undescriblable, film is still on track for +$600m domestic, calm the f down. Next weekend is the Father's Day weekend, leter is 4th of July, the drops will be smaller in the next 3 weeks.
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Jurassic Park - timless classic. 9/10 ❤️
The Lost World - not as good as the original, with a lot of problems, but CGI-T-Rexes still looks perfect, cinematography and Williams music are great and the action sequences (glass/rope scene, running away from Velociraptors in the village) are fantastic. 7/10
Jurassic Park III - not a good film, but at least it's still "people running away from dinos on the island" and nothing more (no train raptors, no military trying to use'em as a weapon, no clones). And it's short! 5/10
Jurassic World - Lack of suspense, lack of tension and the script borrowed from studio Asylum, or another Syfy channel. 4-5/10 because Pratt is good, and it is fast paced, dumb movie with some enjoyable scenes.
Fallen Kingdom - In term of visuals it's the best in the series since Spielberg's films, but the script is even worse and the ending montage shows what this film really is: +2 hours trailer for another unnecessary sequel. 3/10
Dominion - worse than Terminator: Dark Fate! Long, boring af, don't know what it want it to be. Even less tension, suspense and jump scares than in the firs JW, no one dies, zero magic when dinos comes around, Alan is irrelevant and do absolutely nothing, Malcolm was also there (for some reason) and they change him into older version of himself from the original; dialogues, exposition, directing - just everything is awful. 1/10
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BOT forum after 2nd Wednesday TGM numbers - "Oh my god!!! $700m locked, Avatar is going down!"
BOT forum after 2nd Thursday TGM numbers - "Is the $600m still even possible?"
LOL
Chill out guys, TGM is still doing great, no matter what numbers we get.
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2 hours ago, Hatebox said:
The seems to be getting the kind of reviews the first Jurassic World film should have.
I remember watching JW on premiere weekend in my hometown cinema. Me and my 2 brothers laughed so hard at the end when Velo-Boromir run to save Mary and Pippi... to save T-Rex from Indominus, that I couldn't watch it any longer
This was one of the dumbest film I've ever seen in my life, the whole idea to cook in lab new, bigger dinousaur because the public quickly become bored with the classic dinosaurs (in, you know, our world, where, you know, we go to ZOO and will never get bored with Lions, snakes and Tigers 
) was lol x10, train raptors where LOL x100, and the military guy trying to convince Owen to give him raptors to the army as a weapon was... I can't even... The whole script was on Sharknado type-of-film level. Lack of suspense and not as great as in the first two CGI also didn't help the film. It was bad.
Jurassic World is still the most incomprehensible box-office success in the history of cinema for me. Maverick is the same level of mega-surprise this summer, but thanks god, this time it's a great film.
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13 hours ago, Noctis said:
Jurassic World is easily the second best in the franchise
For me it was the worst one till FK. First JP is still amazing, TLW is acceptable, the rest is just bad (JP > TLW > JPIII > JW > JW:FK for me), I wouldn't be surprise if Dominion is even worse than FK.
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50 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Am I misreading this? Jurassic World was at 403M, Avengers at 373M and Incredibles 2 350M after 10 days of release. Those are the DOM numbers I see after the 2nd weekend that I'm seeing.
Sorry. I corrected my previous post.
So far TGM is goat, but wait till the June 17th before you start lockin' $600m. Now Tom has +4700 theaters and all large formats for himself, wait and see how competition will change that.
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This is how much the biggest summer grossers added after 10 days of release:
Jurassic World - $249.5m
The Avengers - $250.3m (A+ Cinemascore, even better IMDb score than TGM)
Incredibles 2 - $258.8m (A+ Cinemascore)
Maverick is at $295.6m after 10 days, he has better drop and better 2nd weekend than Incredibles. $550m seems to be a great target right now.
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Wait, over $12 million on 2nd Monday?!
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Maverick is another proof that if a movie is destined to be smashing hit, it will be a hit no matter what. Do You rememeber our February discussion (in The Batman threat) about TDK and how someone claims that the film broke OW record and exceeded $500m gross domestic only/mainly due to Heath's death? And it was based on the Batman Begins box office run and TDK's (under)predictions from day one? Nope, TDK was an overwhelming hit and it would have been a crushing hit, even without Heath dying. It was the return of the Joker character after 19 years and Heath's incredible perfomance, not his death the reason why TDK broke out so much. Such things happen, especially with the highly anticipated sequels.
Now let's go back to TGM. If $90 million 2nd weekend is true than the bare minimum the movie should add is $185 million (the same as Beauty and the Beast in 2017 added after its $90.4m 2nd weekend). Ofc it's not gonna happen. B&tB had more competition, smaller days of the mid-week in March-May, and wasn't received as well as TGM. So, $480 million is locked for 100%.
Let's compare Maverick to TDK. Batman's opening was $31.7m bigger than Tom's, but after 10 days the gap narrowed, possibly to around $18.2m. TDK had great legs, it had been in theaters for 8 months, but there were a lot of films in calendar than, now we'll have only one major release each week, so Top Gun's legs could be even better. Let's see how Mav will do next weekend, TDK faced smaller competition (third Mummy, and he won!), TGM will face a possible +$150 million opener and will lose all large format on Friday. This could be the reason why people decited to see the film this weekend (last chance to see this in IMAX), and maybe the next weekend TGM will lose over 50% of the audience? We'll see, for now I think beating The Lion King's $544m domestic is achievable.
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19 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:
400M? Make that 500M at this point.
Don't be so sure about that. The Batman suppose to be $400m locked after its 2nd weekend and see how this ends up. For now, if we compare TGM performance with B&tB and TDK, I would say $485m is locked, nothing more. But ofc $500m and even $600m is possible if Tom hendle well next two weekends.
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From Mojo:
There is no doubt that the box office is flying high after a stratospheric $127 million three-day and $161 million four-day holiday opening for Top Gun: Maverick, which was the biggest non-superhero debut since 2019 and nearly double the previous best Tom Cruise opening. The three-and-a-half decade in the waiting sequel also delivered a new record for Memorial Day weekend, beating Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Despite these highs, the lack of new releases is still holding back the box office, which is why May, despite being the second highest grossing month since the pandemic began with an overall box office of $786 million, was the lowest grossing May since 2006.
Lowest grossing May since 2006? I guess they don't count May 2020 and May 2021, aren't they?
I think June will be the biggest month since the pandemic began and one of the best Junes in a while. Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Lightyear - these 3 films alone will make $650m easily.
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11 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:
Warner should do the same with The Batman to cross $370m dom.
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On 6/1/2022 at 9:35 PM, Maggie said:
They should move this to September this year
Paramount will have the best year in their history (Scream, The Lost City, Maverick), they don't need another big hit in 2022 and they don't have anything huge for 2023. Decision to move M:I-7 to 2023 was natural, I think they could have pick earlier date, maybe Memmorial Day Weekend (like this year Top Gun), but F&F X is there, so they were forced to move it further (July) to be not so close to other spy action franchise.
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$64m, maybe $67m 2nd weekend - that's my predicton.
Original Top Gun's run adjusted would be at least $456 million. Let's see if sequel can beat it.
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10 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:
Don't quote entire post directly over yours. It makes no sense.
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One of the best polish actor working today, Marcin Dorociński, is in Mission: Impossible 8 !!
I'm so excited.
Anyway, Top Gun: Maverick is clearly going to be as big hit as the first one in 1986. Is it possible for M:I:7 to be as big as the first Mission and M:I-2? The last one (Fallout) got great reviews and audience score, it was bigger succes than previous film, and now, after many delays due to covid + Tom Cruise yelling on people on set, I think another Mission has potential to be this franchise's Skyfall.
Mission: Impossible - $180.98m (ATP - $4.42 in 1996) = $391.9m (ATP - $9.57 in 2021)
Mission: Impossible 2 - $215.4m (ATP - $5.39 in 2000) = $382.3m (--------||--------)
Ghost Protocol - $209.4m (ATP - $7.93/7.96 in 2011/2022) = around $252m in 2021
I believe +$300 million domestic for Dead Reckoning Part 1 is mission not so impossible. Average domestic gross for this franchise with 2021 ticket prices would have been around $279 million. In 2023 is should be close to $290m I guess.
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Chill out guys, TGM is still doing great, no matter what numbers we get.
) was lol x10, train raptors where LOL x100, and the military guy trying to convince Owen to give him raptors to the army as a weapon was... I can't even... The whole script was on Sharknado type-of-film level. Lack of suspense and not as great as in the first two CGI also didn't help the film. It was bad.
2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Fast & Furious franchise is slowing down since The Fate of the Furious. F9: The Fast Saga got worse reviews than couple of its predecessors and the worst audience score of them all (IMDb 5.2). There's no chance for Fast X to end up in 2023 Top10. It won't be even on $173-174 million F9-Hobbs & Shaw level. I think this will be this series' Transformers 5. $130-170m range for now.