keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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with holidays ahead its not that difficult. Plus should continue to run in Jan/Feb. Casino Royale made 30M after making 5.6M in the corresponding weekend.$35 mil more domestic would be great but unlikely.
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Should make another 35M domestic and 35-40M from holdovers. That will take it around 1.025B. can it gross 75M in china to hit 1.1B?
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I would rate Hobbit's domestic performance at around B/B-. Not bad but not good as well. But its OS performance is just awful. LOTR was a global phenomenon and this with 9 years of inflation/better exchange rates/expanding markets/3D should at worst make Pirates 4 kind of total. But its performance is shockingly bad. I would rate its OS performance as D-.
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So italy is another territory where it will finish lower than ROTK in dollar.BTW any numbers from Latin america. That has some potential for growth as ROTK was not that big. But I am not sure hobbit kind of film can be huge. Animation and fun blockbusters seem to do better.
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after a crappy start, guardian is showing excellent legs. it should make 120M which is not bad considering its awful opening.
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with japan losin 80% of ROTK gross(plus it will be lower in UK/Germany/France etc), I am not convinced about it hitting 1B WW. it might squeak through if it over performs in Russia/China but I am not too optimistic about that.At least compared to Japan its a blockbuster opening here in US. In Japan its going to end lower than Skyfall !!!!!!!!!!!!! ROTK almost grossed 100M in japan 9 years back.
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I am with you on this. Bigger the opening lesser the multi. it will drop hard in its 2nd weekend and then ride our the holidays. Since it is a non-factor in awards season, I expect it to do just normal in Jan/Feb. As I said in my previous post sunday drop will give us some inkling on where it will end up. I am thinking 300-315M. Sub fellowship is a good thread at this pointI'm less than optimistic. I think it will do closer to a 4X....maybe a slight bit less. I don't think this is going to have the WOM and legs that the others did.
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If the WOM is good then it should have better than norm drop and go up. Every leggy movie tends to do that. Avatar increased in its 1st sunday(of course storm impacted its saturday). Movies like Trek, Hangover 1, TDK, Inception, Avengers etc all had much better than norm sunday drops.So if Hobbits sunday drop is normal for this weekend then its legs wont be special.Makes sense, B. Though 32% projected drop is still on the optimistic side. And as such I'd say the actuals going down is more probable than going up. Not saying it can't go up, though.
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FYI on cinemascore.http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/why-cinemascore-matters-box-office-225563Anyway cinemascore for franchise movies are useless as fans make majority of OD audience(unless even they hate it then it will have horrible legs). But for original non franchise flicks we can use cinemascore as the gauge to predict legs.
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Looking at weekdays back in 2007 it may not even hit 100M by thursday if it makes only 15M sunday and 75M OW.
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I think WB's official estimates will say it broke december OW record but it will drop with actuals. No one would care as it at least would have got the publicity.
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I am not sure guardian will have that good an IM considering the tragedy. Its audience will be impacted the most.
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with hobbit underperforming we can lock 300M for BD2 and skyfall. Great for all the holdovers.
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i forgot good ol' baumer. he will surely rub it in. I am thinking sub 250M thread from him.FTFY.
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and what were its midnights??I wont be surprised to see hobbit o/u tasm domestic thread at this point. noctis will open something crazy for sure.Wow. 36m. TASM opened to 35.Just sayin...
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Uptil now I thought TDKR was the biggest disappointment among blockbusters for the year. But Hobbit will easily take the crown. Imagine hobbit finishing outside top 3 in domestic, OS( Avengers, skyfall, ice age4) and WW (avengers, skyfall, tdkr).
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so we are looking at something like below at the worst case.
13M midnights
23M Friday minus midnights
24M sat (muted increase because of the tragedy)
15M sun (average drop similar to 2007)
75M
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Hobbit will make around typical potter number minus the finale. So there is not that much of a difference. Potter's os performance was predictable and boring. So I would not call it extra special. If we have 3 more Ice Age movies they will also end up making around the same numbers.So, yes, it is. In terms of franchises, that is.
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Yes. I think hobbit numbers are irrelevant compared to the tragedy. Movies would be last thing on families priorities. I doubt we will see major saturday boost. Plus its close to NYC which is among the biggest markets. I wonder how that market did today.I wont say its a direct effect yet, but my area - typically VERY family driven - has been dead all day and night.
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There is zero % chance of this hitting 45M. I doubt it will increase 20% from 830PM estimates. If anything with the tragedy in east coast late nights will be muted overall.
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There is only one king.So can we say that the overseas king is Potter?
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its a bad number for sure. Heretic has been overestimating bigtime for past couple of days. I think It will probably do lowend of RTH number,so that means around 10M OW. That is worse than 3rd weekend of Skyfall. This despite UK being Tolkein homeland. it looks like losing around 25M USD compared to ROTK.Hobbit will lose around 200M in established big markets and will probably gain 100-120M in emerging markets. So that means around 600-650M depending on how it does in smaller markets relative to ROTK.
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I said it will also do that. But bigger the OW lower the multi. Plus you have to look at legs for weekend minus the midnights. So for 90M OW you need to calculate for 77M. So 4x would mean around 320M domestic.IAL had a more adult audience than TH is likely to have. And I'm not sure why January 2013 will prohibit TH from having good legs.
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I compared with IAL because 2007 maps the best with 2012. Even if you look at Tron, it dropped like 56%+ in its 2nd weekend. Plus January was weak that year. Both Tron and True Grit had a strong run. Hobbit will probably do that but with bigger OW and big midnight its multi will suffer.It's certainly more kid friendly than IAL, and I don't see why it should perform significantly worse than Tron Legacy.
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UK Box Office Thread
in International Box Office
Posted
I am hoping Monsters University does really well as well.