keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
It seems MTC1 tracked was way off for Challengers. @keysersoze123
Actuals $900K vs $373K + $723K = $1096K
Are you sure it is the final number. Seem way off. There could be discount tickets for sure. I am assuming all tickets as adult tickets. Unless TMobile discount actually impacted the gross here. That seems weird as that is not a deal from studio.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 12426/92810 273976.76 377 shows
Previews(T-6) - 12113/334752 251550.53 1608 shows
Friday - 11529/596331 228680.03 2822 shows
Update is after 9 days plus. No sign yet of a big breakout. Plus early shows being just day earlier than previews will have some impact on thursday pace until really close to release.
Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 13138/92957 289517.74 378 shows +712
Previews(T-5) - 12908/333762 267563.82 1604 shows +795
Friday - 12689/597869 251911.87 2834 shows +1160
Meh Pace for sure.
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9 hours ago, emoviefan said:
When you say no sign of a big breakout do you mean you think it's going to do at least in the 30-40 million dollar range or possibly even go sub 30 for the weekend because that would not be good.
40m looks tough. Its hard to extrapolate at this point as pace is really low. If I have to guess its looking at 2.5m ish thursday only gross. So around 25-30m range.
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On 4/17/2024 at 2:34 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1
Early Shows(5/8) - 11255/89557 244706.43 365 shows
Previews - 9377/459726 189282.69 2306 shows
Friday - 7901/652644 154054.47 3233 shows
Again minus early shows, presales are moribund. This is 15 days of update 🙂
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1
Early Shows(5/8) - 15033/90514 324445.07 370 shows
Previews(T-13) - 12873/465812 257235.93 2324 shows
Friday - 11612/663716 225998.08 3272 showsAgain 9+ days later. Its going to open bigger than Fall Guy for sure. Not sure how wide the early shows are. But a gross around 1.5m could be in play. Previews we have to wait and see how it accelerates close to release.
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On 4/17/2024 at 2:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows
Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows
Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows
Again there is almost no pace. There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment.
Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 12426/92810 273976.76 377 shows
Previews(T-6) - 12113/334752 251550.53 1608 shows
Friday - 11529/596331 228680.03 2822 shows
Update is after 9 days plus. No sign yet of a big breakout. Plus early shows being just day earlier than previews will have some impact on thursday pace until really close to release.
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28 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Let’s not forget that Air opened last year from the same studio and cost $70-90m to make with a lot of big names and excellent reviews. It opened to $14m from a slightly wider release.
If anyone was parading that film as a hit, then they need to do the same with Challengers.
Anyway, just back from the film and I thought it was incredible. So homoerotic, it’s beautifully shot and that techno score is delicious. Original screenplay nomination at least. Game. Set. Snatched.
is anyone doing that. Its not a BO success for sure. But Amazon was financing it and so its ok. its kind of a semi streaming movie.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 24266/295401 463648.44 1703 shows +5021
Friday - 27792/489438 508416.56 2681 shows +6466
Obviously yesterday was heavily boosted due to TMobile deal. Should hit 2m thursday I feel or come very close. Add another 600-700K for early shows. Definitely feel good about 20m OW as well looking at thursday pace and great reviews seen so far.
Challengers MTC1
Previews Final - 39534/295298 723223.69 1709 shows +15268
Friday - 39292/491252 705552.77 2694 shows +11500
Ok final day. Still its numbers are great relative to rest of the market. Giving it Monkey Man ratio still takes it to 1.8m thursday only and somewhere close to 2.5m including early shows. Let us see how rest of the weekend goes. I think walkups should be better over the weekend.
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On 4/23/2024 at 9:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 19245/292157 372657.13 1677 shows +4530
Friday - 21326/485738 395439.16 2656 shows +6604
Really good day and it was expected considering TMobile deal. Let us see how wednesday goes. I am sticking to my prediction though it could over index big time here just like some of the other recent releases.
Challengers MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 24266/295401 463648.44 1703 shows +5021
Friday - 27792/489438 508416.56 2681 shows +6466
Obviously yesterday was heavily boosted due to TMobile deal. Should hit 2m thursday I feel or come very close. Add another 600-700K for early shows. Definitely feel good about 20m OW as well looking at thursday pace and great reviews seen so far.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) final - 18092/62617 373746.58 263 shows +3377
Previews(T-3) - 14715/272266 288951.39 1540 shows +3000
Friday - 14722/428870 278017.78 2375 shows +3665
Good for sure. Early Shows will skew MTC1 big time(looking at MTC2, gross wont be that much). I am thinking 550-600K for early shows. Previews should accelerate tomorrow if WOM from early shows is good. Thinking 2.5m+ previews including early shows and 20m ish OW.
Challengers MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 19245/292157 372657.13 1677 shows +4530
Friday - 21326/485738 395439.16 2656 shows +6604
Really good day and it was expected considering TMobile deal. Let us see how wednesday goes. I am sticking to my prediction though it could over index big time here just like some of the other recent releases.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) - 14715/62070 307604.35 260 shows +2306
Previews(T-4) - 11715/243065 233167.37 1391 shows +2213
Friday - 11057/377245 211874.43 2118 shows +2927
I could not run this yesterday and so its 2 days of data and I expect the pace today would be up quite a bit from yesterday. We will know with tomorrow's update. Definitely think potential is there for 20m OW.
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) final - 18092/62617 373746.58 263 shows +3377
Previews(T-3) - 14715/272266 288951.39 1540 shows +3000
Friday - 14722/428870 278017.78 2375 shows +3665
Good for sure. Early Shows will skew MTC1 big time(looking at MTC2, gross wont be that much). I am thinking 550-600K for early shows. Previews should accelerate tomorrow if WOM from early shows is good. Thinking 2.5m+ previews including early shows and 20m ish OW.
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MEH. I am so over these boiler plate multi verse movies. Let us wait and see how the presales go. It will still open well bcos of the star power(Reynolds/Jackson).
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On 4/19/2024 at 10:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) - 12409/62070 261451.91 260 shows +762
Previews(T-6) - 9502/239248 191084.12 1365 shows +873
Friday - 8130/368343 158216.9 2073 shows +847
Still the pace is not there. Let us see how things go post early shows on 22nd.
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) - 14715/62070 307604.35 260 shows +2306
Previews(T-4) - 11715/243065 233167.37 1391 shows +2213
Friday - 11057/377245 211874.43 2118 shows +2927
I could not run this yesterday and so its 2 days of data and I expect the pace today would be up quite a bit from yesterday. We will know with tomorrow's update. Definitely think potential is there for 20m OW.
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10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(04/22) - 11647/59743 245975.53 249 shows
Previews(T-7) - 8629/231646 174139.25 1323 shows
Friday - 7283/363901 142488.45 2042 shows
This is as of late evening yesterday. Let us see how this moves over final week.
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(4/22) - 12409/62070 261451.91 260 shows +762
Previews(T-6) - 9502/239248 191084.12 1365 shows +873
Friday - 8130/368343 158216.9 2073 shows +847
Still the pace is not there. Let us see how things go post early shows on 22nd.
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FYI
MTC1 Friday Final
Ministry - 39746/299214 608878.53 2222 shows
Abigail - 49175/409945 743482.45 2556 shows
2.4m TF for Ministry and 3m for Abigail?
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On 4/16/2024 at 9:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(04/22) - 10009/59743 212865.41 249 shows
Previews - 6995/227709 142617.23 1297 shows
Friday - 5707/357727 112547.81 2009 shows
Strong early show sales and looking at previews/Friday, its looking at 20m OW.
Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(04/22) - 11647/59743 245975.53 249 shows
Previews(T-7) - 8629/231646 174139.25 1323 shows
Friday - 7283/363901 142488.45 2042 shows
This is as of late evening yesterday. Let us see how this moves over final week.
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Ministry doing better than what I expected. I guess it did not over index despite my concern for it being not so widely release. DAJK did say that it did not release in his area. That makes me optimistic that its OW wont be that bad. Hoping it hits double digits.
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Ministry did not over index. I was concerned when @DAJK said it did not even release in his area(Vancouver?). It had a limited preview release as well.
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On 4/17/2024 at 9:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Abigail MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 10465/216094 177343.31 1350 shows +2490
Friday - 9639/408683 158408.56 2535 shows +2238
May be I am over estimating this movie. But expecting it to have good walkups tomorrow. So no change in previews prediction but OW bumping it down to low double digits.
Abigail MTC1
Previews Final - 23269/215614 379317.93 1346 shows +12804
Friday - 15215/409246 247116.88 2547 shows +5576
Definitely way better walkups compared to ministry. I am thinking slightly over 1m for this today. Friday sales are still weak. Need even better walkups to hit low double digits. Let us see how things go.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 8816/120903 151276.88 928 shows +1789
Friday - 11213/298520 185865.53 2209 shows +2609
yikes. No acceleration seen today. Probably looking at 700-800K previews now. At least Friday pace/number is ahead of Abigail. Does not look like its going to hit double digits 😞
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1
Previews Final - 15782/120808 260299.55 929 shows +6966
Friday - 16373/298722 266665.97 2215 shows +5160
Awful final day. Around 650-700K thursday previews(not including early shows which should add another 500K). Looking at 7 ish OW at this rate.
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 7027/120427 121282.69 923 shows +1719
Friday - 8604/296883 143249.24 2194 shows +2399
Its show count is low but its pace is higher than Abigail. That said I am expecting final day sales for Abigail to be higher looking at the genre. That said at least at MTC1 its going to be close. With around 500K gross from early shows and probably around 1m thursday, its also looking at low to mid teens OW.
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 8816/120903 151276.88 928 shows +1789
Friday - 11213/298520 185865.53 2209 shows +2609
yikes. No acceleration seen today. Probably looking at 700-800K previews now. At least Friday pace/number is ahead of Abigail. Does not look like its going to hit double digits 😞
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On 4/16/2024 at 9:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Abigail MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 7975/215247 134951.99 1344 shows
Friday - 7401/405967 120543.70 2508 shows
Sold just over 1600 tickets today for previews and 1800+ for friday. Probably looking at 1m ish previews and mid teens OW.
Abigail MTC1
Previews(T-1) - 10465/216094 177343.31 1350 shows +2490
Friday - 9639/408683 158408.56 2535 shows +2238
May be I am over estimating this movie. But expecting it to have good walkups tomorrow. So no change in previews prediction but OW bumping it down to low double digits.
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On 4/2/2024 at 2:46 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1
Early Shows(5/8) - 3106/89018 68420.38 362 shows
Previews - 4259/212991 91372.05 879 shows
Friday - 2906/293786 60738.50 1196 shows
No early sign of breakout but it has 5+ weeks to go to release. Let us see where things are close to release.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1
Early Shows(5/8) - 11255/89557 244706.43 365 shows
Previews - 9377/459726 189282.69 2306 shows
Friday - 7901/652644 154054.47 3233 shows
Again minus early shows, presales are moribund. This is 15 days of update 🙂
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Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows
Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows
Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows
Again there is almost no pace. There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment.
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Challengers MTC1
Early Shows(04-22) - 10009/59743 212865.41 249 shows
Previews - 6995/227709 142617.23 1297 shows
Friday - 5707/357727 112547.81 2009 shows
Strong early show sales and looking at previews/Friday, its looking at 20m OW.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Nope. I generally don't look beyond Friday unless it's a big opener. Probably not until Inside Out 2