keysersoze123
-
Posts
16,554 -
Joined
-
Days Won
94
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by keysersoze123
-
-
I dont buy this being great or its not summer and its not a twilight/potter. After all ROTK broke the midnight record back in 2003 and this movie was sold as a sequel/prequel to LOTR and based on all time best seller book.I would say this number is decent but definitely not in awesome territory. For that it should have at least grossed 20M. After all it played in 3100+ theaters for midnights.I think its cracking 100M with this midnight number(something like 13/33/35/25). I am still not convinced it will have great legs but I hope I am wrong.
-
2
-
-
So we are looking at hobbit losing like 60-70M in Japan WRT ROTK. That is a huge gap. With major markets in Europe being mediocre, I am certain this is not cracking 700M. Most probably this is looking at Potteresque gross(not including last one).
-
Are you sure that covers all the production costs. I thought there are further production plans. Plus there are marketing costs.Still its ridiculous to call this a flop. It will be a hugely profitable trilogy for WB.Even if it only pulled in $800m WW (which would be pretty low compared to expectations), that's still $400m and change back to Warners, covering 80% of total production costs for the trilogy.
-
I would bet on it at this point. No way this is looking at 210M increase from ROTK even if it makes lot more in Russia, China, Brazil, Mexico etc. It looks like decreasing big time in Japan plus few European countries. I am not convinced it will be that big in Latin America as well. So I am not sure how it will make 900M if you compare it with ROTK or this years Avengers.What you're not getting is that it's barely passing them in dollars, anyway. And in some it didn't pass them...despite NINE years of inflation + 3D + IMAX.Can we safely say this won't pass DH2's $953m?
-
I doubt this can make $ numbers of ROTK as its difficult to see this having as good a legs. After all ROTK had must see factor being the finale which this is lacking. Germany/Uk are next. At least Rovex posts are showing positive signs for UK though few other posters said pre-sales were not good. Germany looks mediocre as well.
-
I think japan is looking at 50M decrease. UK, Germany and Sweden will probably decrease as well(I am talking just in $ gross). I am thinking the range of 650-800M at best at the moment. I definitely dont see this one breaking any records in latin america.
-
To my knowledge TDKR opened to 440K back in july. Even TASM also opened around the same number. Avengers probably opened higher. TF3 probably opened close to 800K admissions.Give some other movies for comparison. How did the LOTRs do?
Pathetic number for hobbit. at this point I dont see it doing crazy good in any major market.
-
any comparisons to ROTK(and other BB like TDKR or Avengers) and what is the expected weekend gross in USD. ROTK just grossed over 28M USD and so it wont be that hard to beat it(Is that like 3M admissions? ).South KoreaOD 158kweak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.
-
ROTK made 743M. for hobbit to make 900M it needs to make around 10% more(USD) in major markets plus make up the rest through china/russia/brazil/mexico. But it looks like its going to lose ground to ROTK in markets like Japan(Big time), Germany and United Kingdom. I am not convinced its going to replicate success in countries like sweden as well. That makes it very tough to even make ROTK unadjusted forget about 900M. But we will have better perspective in another day or so.
-
Corpse @ KJ about Japan.
I am thinking hobbit will be brave kind of disappointment(not exact gross). I wonder how low it can go.The Hobbit isn't looking good at all. Only 2 of it's showtimes have reached the 50% ticket sold mark. What makes this most concerning is that the film is only playing on small-medium sized screens. All the bigger screens are going to One Piece. Expectations have been fairly low here, and maybe rightfully so if ticket sales so far are any indication. It was unwise to open the film this weekend. If it would bomb, Hollywood has a very troublesome future ahead. I wouldn't call The Hobbit a disappointment yet though, walk-ups could be strong.
-
He said its not close to admissions of skyfall(2.136.263). So that means Hobbit is down from FOTR even in gross. I dont see hobbit coming close to ROTK in germany for sure even in gross.20% down in admissions or gross? A 20% drop in admissions would still be a high increase in gross from FOTR.
-
+1.But I have extra admiration for Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep.I respect acting too much to really hate actors. It's a damn hard profession. Requires an extraordinary amount of vulnerability and openness. Even the models-turned-actors deserve some modicum of respect.Having said that, I have little respect for successful actors who seem to have no respect for where they are or who hires them. Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox, etc. Especially when they can't turn in a good performance otherwise.
-
350M OW/2B DOM/5B OS/7B WW. This is beating Avatar + titanic combined. Angry Birds FTW.I am kidding. This game will probably be irrelevant by the time movie releases.
-
1
-
-
Sweden was crazy. ROTK almost grossed 25M. I doubt Hobbit will come anywhere close in there or in other scandinavian markets. I hope we get better perspective in a day or two.
-
that may work. I dont think Japanese ticket prices have changed that much and ROTK was HUGE back in 2003. SO it will lose in that market for sure. I think best way to set expectations is Hobbit needs to make 120% of USD gross of ROTK in all the major markets(any market where hobbit needs to make at least 10M). I also think it needs to do 60M in china/50M in Russia/30M in mexico/20M in brazil.TH does not need the same number of admissions than ROTK to reach 1 billion OS. With about a 30%-35% drop in admissions in 2003 developed markets you have the same gross than ROTK (the drop is compensated with inflation and 3D). And then you have to add expanding markets and some exchange rates quite favorable right now relative to 2003.But the initial drop in France is quite higher, about 60%. We have to wait.
-
That is awful. If France under performs 1B OS is dead for sure. It needs to be super strong in all major markets(as close to ROTK admissions as possible) to hit 1B OS. My feeling is we are looking at ROTK unadjusted than 1B OS.
-
so with china still to open this locks up 800M OS and 1.1B WW.
-
Is this a 2012 release. Then it must be most impressive performer for the year. Probably even more than Avengers or Skyfall.
-
This should happen. With 3D and 48fps premiums, and os markets having expanded significantly since 2003 I dont see it missing 1B OS. Big question is if it can beat Titanic OS(original run). But number 3 all time OS is highly probably. I am not sure how big it will be domestic. I am thinking around 400-450M. If it makes 450M it might squeak by Avengers WW.
-
Action in skyfall is just out of the world. Opening action sequence is as good as it gets. Its true that movie really slows down between the action scenes. But overall pacing is not that much of an issue. It will do well in china.
-
I will trust RTH. if he thinks 63-65 there is no way it will go up to 70M or something like that.
-
Comeuppance for baumer for sure(for trolling during TDKR as well). He wont be enjoying this.After baumer was mercilessly predicting for DH2 to do as low as possible out of spite for the series and then hoped after its OW that it would hit a sub-2 multiplier...this is just too fucking good.DH2 > BD2RAWR!
-
2
-
-
Mediocre for BD2 for shoo. No way to spin a probable sub 125M OW as anything but disappointing. I think skyfall will be strong in late shows and will go up for sure.
-
I am sure BOM will split the number. They have always done so for 10PM previews. Only question is will it be absolutely accurate. I am too sure about that. There could be some "fudging" to bump up its 3-day number.Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I am legend opened in similar weekend back in 2007 and dropped 57%. It had very small midnights. Alvin dropped 36.4%. I would say hobbit will drop like 40-45% minus midnights. so with 90M OW it will make 44-47M in its 2nd weekend. I dont see it make 4x legs. Most probably it will make around IAL legs.