[Monday Numbers: SOC 7.5 MI5 1.7 UNCLE 1.3 F4 920k]

TMNT did 65.6 OW and 6.7 its first monday. 6.6 is good for compton

[Minions OS Thread | 1 BILLION WW CROSSED!! | 6m weekend | $811.4m OS total]

Barely any drop off at all.  

 

Aug 2-9 was 567.3 to 607.5 = 40.2m

Aug 10-16 was 607.5 to 644.5 = 37m 

 

Were there new openings?

[Official Weekend Estimates: Straigth Outta Compton - 56.1M; The Man From UNCLE - 13.5M; MI5 - 17.3M; Fantastic Four - 8M]

SOC opening day over FF OW

SOC OW over FF dom total

[MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - ROGUE NATION | 487.7 M overseas ● 682.7 M worldwide]

I agree with FD. 700m is the target.

 

800m is out of the question. GP had Christmas holidays in its 2nd/3rd week in most markets.

 

I am thinking right now 175m DOM, 175-200m China and 325-350m OS-C.

 

That's my rough guess as well, ~175d, 200+ china, low 300's everywhere else.  800 is possible but very unlikely.

[TED II | 135.2 M overseas | 216.7 M worldwide]

If Ted 2 makes half of what the first Ted made in the remaining countries it'll be at about $235m worldwide.  My guess is it'll probably end up around 200-215. 

[Fast & Furious 7 | 1165.6m overseas | 1518.6m Worldwide | Crosses $1.5 Billion Worldwide / 3m from passing The Avengers WW total!]

Updated to $1,161,967,115 overseas.  Total now $1,513,000,025

 

After all the 2012 releases were done there were 15 billion dollar movies.  After this year's movies are done there will be 15 movies over $1.1 billion.  

 

After all 2009 releases were done there were 5 billion dollar movies.  After this year's are done there will be 5 (possibly 6) movies over $1.5 billion.

[MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - ROGUE NATION | 487.7 M overseas ● 682.7 M worldwide]

I don't really like the comparison to ghost protocol. Comparing a winter/Christmas opening to a summer one isn't very good. I'm more curious how it compares to dawn of the planet of the apes or days of future past for example, more recent action/adventure summer(ish) releases that did similar numbers overseas as ghost protocol.

[Official Weekend Estimates |MI5 - 56M; Vacation - 14.9M; Ant-Man - 12.6M; Minions - 12.2M; Pixels - 10.4M; Trainwreck - 9.7M| Pg58]

Variety says at least 20m friday for mi5

 

Vacation 12.5m FSS

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-box-office-1201554352/

[Official Weekend Estimates |MI5 - 56M; Vacation - 14.9M; Ant-Man - 12.6M; Minions - 12.2M; Pixels - 10.4M; Trainwreck - 9.7M| Pg58]

Hollywood Reporter says M:I5 18m for friday, 45+ for the weekend, if not 47+

 

16m FSS for Vacation which seems high to me.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/mission-impossible-rogue-nation-box-812341

[Straight Outta Compton | August 14, 2015]

Umberto Gonzalez says it's tracking big, superhero levels: https://twitter.com/elmayimbe/status/627131780605194240

[MI5 over/under AoU Club]

Looking at the growth of a few hollywood franchises to me it seems like 1.6b or so for MI5, but at the same time that's a big number, IDK.  I'm going with over for now I guess.

[SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week]

Here's roughly how I see it:

 

 

This is the first time I've broken it down this much so excuse any major misteps.

 

Eur+Jap+Austr could be called the mature markets, including new zealand and most of the big western european countries.  I see a small drop in attendance plus the exchange rate bringing this group down.

 

SK+Ru+Br+Mx are solid growth markets but the exchange rate will mute that somewhat from Skyfall.

 

China about double.  UK affected by exchange rate and attendance drop.

 

Rest includes some growth markets but also some exchange rate trouble.

 

Domestic should probably more or less be equal to Casino Royale (but with more large screens, thus higher than the adjusted 206).

[Tuesday #s | Minions 8M, Ant-Man 7.8M, TW 4.2M, JW 1.7M Down goes Avengers! JW #3 WW!]

IMAX hurts the Tuesday increase and helps the Wednesday drop. This is because IMAX prices are not discounted.

 

There's a digital IMAX near me that has $5 tuesdays for all shows including 3D.  Cinemark doesn't offer the $5 tuesday for their large screens around here though.

[Weekend Thread JW 54.2M, hits 500 | IO 52M | pg 99]

On the low end, 35+45+50 for the top three, plus another 30m to fill out the top twelve, still a decent weekend overall. Makes sense for things to cool down a bit after the last two huuuge weekends and before the fourth of July weekend.

[Weekend Thread JW 54.2M, hits 500 | IO 52M | pg 99]

At more locations starting 4 hours earlier it does the same as the first Ted. And last year 22 jump street did 5.5m Thursday and 57m OW. I don't think Ted 2 breaks 50m, might even struggle to hit 45.

[Jurassic World OS | 1.015B OS | 1.667B WW | China 228m, United Kingdom 100.5m, Japan 74.8m]

Actual Intl Weekend BO is based on weekend BO for individual countries normal play week start thru Sunday, so for example the 155m includes a combination of 2-5 days bo (ie FRA wed-Sun, AUS Thu-Sun, UK Fri-Sun, JPN would be Sat-Sun etc). Opening weekend previews are included even if the local territories keep it separated(which majority do).

 

I think I see what you're saying now, took me a bit - the officially reported 160.5m overseas weekend isn't FSS everywhere, it's the "weekend" from each territory which is a 3-day in some, a 4-day in others and even a 5-day in a few.  

 

I'm still curious if my read on things is correct though:

 

Pre-opening weekend - 70m

First weekend - 245m (total 315)

Mon-Thurs - 113m (total through thursday 428)

Weekend 2 - 155m (583m)

[Jurassic World OS | 1.015B OS | 1.667B WW | China 228m, United Kingdom 100.5m, Japan 74.8m]

That's $155m overseas for FSS, down just 37% from last weekend's $245m. Crazy.

[Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend]

13 days to a billion for jurassic world.

[Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend]

Two weekends in a row of enormous numbers, almost seems fake.

[Jurassic World OS | 1.015B OS | 1.667B WW | China 228m, United Kingdom 100.5m, Japan 74.8m]

If the total listed on universal's site does not include chine then before the weekend even starts JW will be at about 724m ww.

 

Dom - 296m

China - 126m

Rest - 302m

 

Weekend - at least 80m domestic and 100m overeas.  At least 900m by the end of this weekend.

 

Edit - fixed a stupid mistake.

[Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend]

http://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-inside-out-weekend-box-office-dope-1201448898/

It also had 661 theaters for a special screening on tuesday that will be counted with Fridays gross.

[Thursday #'s: JURASSIC WORLD 17.9 (Rth)]

Oops, wrong thread

[Wednesday Actuals: JW 19.9 [Not the PIXAR thread]]

JW isn't holding good, it's holding well. But it does have good holds.

[Jurassic World OS | 1.015B OS | 1.667B WW | China 228m, United Kingdom 100.5m, Japan 74.8m]

Says it was updated 17 june 1800hrs UK time, and BO says the global total is 619.55 which is through tuesday domestic.  I would take that to mean the overseas also includes Tuesday's numbers.

 

JW overseas total:

Wed-Thurs - 70m

FSS - 245m

Mon-Tues - 46m

 

Extrapolating:

W-Th - 35-40

Week 1 - 325-330

 

WW total through Thursday could possibly reach 700m.

[Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!]

Are some people honestly arguing that JW doesn't "deserve" to make this kind of money but TA did? Give me a break.

It's only now looking back at the 47 other superhero movies that have come out where the avengers starts to look a bit more generic. In may of 2012 though it was phenomenal, more so than JW is right now.